mackerel sky

Can hear distant thunder from Bedford to the south. Very black over that way. After a heavy shower the sun is out and temperature has shot up to nearly 21C. I'm expecting it to go bang here within the next hour.

It isn't unreasonable to look at upstream developments coming out of the northeastern seaboard of the US and how that may or may not affect us. I am bored of this. There is no accountability because no one seems interested anymore on a local level in the model thread. All about point scoring with the next fad.

What has become of the model thread eh? It's all about fancy things like the MJO and talking about three weeks ahead which never verifies. Complex speak for the sake of it. This is why I get upset. Let's try to get the forecast correct in a 5 day period before moving onto your MJO business. It's like polar wandering. Fancy tools.

Who is this chief forecaster at the Met Office giving his assessments? Not to poo-poo that but lots of people on here could do a better job. The Chief forecaster is often wrong as probably goes home for his tea and nice sleep.

28 - lucky you! I just turned 40!!

We had a snow flurry about 4pm. Cold out there now -0.8C. If any makes it here overnight or early morning it will be of the white variety.

I need to be better educated in the MJO signals as a valid forecasting tool. I read all the hype and they still confuse and disappoint for 'upstream signals' etc. seems like a total fad to me. I can't think of one situation this winter these 'signals' have been a useful short or even long term forecasting tool over conventional means. Seems like the meteorological equivalent of reading tea leaves if you ask me. I think I've got my head round it but prefer to stick to the various traditional model outputs based on probability and members than that. I have found interpretation baffling and of limited use.

I'm in North Wales travelling back home to a East Northants tomorrow so watching the total lack of developments further south and east. The snow line in Snowdonia is 700 metres. Tal yr fan, the nearest summit at 670 metres has a mere dusting no more improved from yesterday.

I joined this forum many years ago, I think in 2003 as member 500 or so - I have never seen such a poor verification of models. Getting worse not better.

Looking dry here for the next 5-6 days I would think. Not much to get excited about.

I was in Calgary this time last year - arrived in -17c then two days later it got upto +13c, before plunging back down to -12c. In fact experienced a 20c drop in the space of 8 hours. But the snowfall there is pointless. It rarely accumulates to any depth, and -17c feels nothing like it would it the UK. The rain shadow kills off the chance of any decent snowfall generally. You would expect snow to settle at those low temperatures but it doesn't.

I was in Oslo all week and although the 850s were -10c midweek it was still +2-3c by day only falling to -2c by night. Minimal amounts of snow, some bits in the suburbs. Even out at the airport dregs of a couple of inches. No surface cold to tap into from anywhere. Time to give up I think.

Pretty good snow tonight here in East Northants! If we get some more overnight then it will be enough for a decent snowman.

Surprised at reports of no snow in Northampton. It's been coming down pretty heavy here. A good 3cm on the grass, only a 1cm on the roads.

Just over the border from this regional thread into Northamptonshire we've got the best snow all night so far. Sticking to pretty much everything now.

Snowing nicely here now. Sticking to most surfaces.

Light snow on and off here - more drizzle in the lighter spells. It is settling a little bit, even on the paths.

Bit of sleet/wet snow starting to fall here. A bit surprising given an hour ago there was a good air frost starting up. Car was all iced up.

Provided there is some precipitation then we have quite favourable conditions here. Down to 0.3C at present with a dew point of -1C.

Don't often post nowadays, little time. Obviously given up on a decent undercut to tap into the current cold developing nearby in Norway. And whilst we have dumb bells of low Pressure nearby a waste of time. Though I am becoming intrested in signals a bit further out, FI is starting to look not too daft.That said I was seriously considering cutting the grass. It hasn't stopped growing.

Its here!!!!

Maybes but 48 hours ago it was 25C at midnight!!!

It is only 17C outside! Nevertheless frequent distant flashes are lighting up the sky to our south now!

Remember March two years ago? I couldn't have imagined that - ice days around the 25th and snow drifts outside of town that lasted until the end of April! For shock value I think we could see something wintry Sunday morning. I mentioned the potential about 10 days ago in the Midlands thread and people thought I must be high on something.

It was mild over there. I think Ontario and Eastern Canada were recording record lows of -40C. I arrived at -20C and the cold was noticeable, but 36 hours later it was 13C, then mild briefly the next day before as mentioned dropped like a stone again. I think the literal translation of 'Chinook' is 'snow eater'. I went upto Bannf and it was a lot milder there than in Calgary. Anyway a nice place to visit and get paid!