Paul_1978

What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart!

Pretty much dry in Wakefield too, just a heavy cloud cover. Current temp -0.2°C, only very slowly climbing.

Well I must be looking at a different run as there is some great wintry potential for Scotland, certainly for 23rd December onwards.

-1°C and raining here in Wakefield!

Looking at this morning’s output, does anyone think we’ll be looking at the next named storm next week? There’s certainly some potent looking low pressure systems around.

Slim to none.

Yep, strengthens the jet stream

The ECM is the model that appears to be most respected amongst professionals and amateurs alike so you’ve got to take its output seriously. Also I’ve posted this on here recently, but I was surprised to see a pro forecaster on Twitter recently (Ian Fergusson) appearing to rate the “best” models in his view as UKMO, ECM, GEM, ICON and JMA, with the GFS apparently rated last. Consequently since then I’ve been taking a lot of GFS output with a pinch of salt, and paying more attention to the likes of GEM and ICON than I did previously.

Arrives Saturday, gone by Monday evening and back into a northerly!

Which model are those from? Cropped images don't show

Snowy do we think?

Currently -1.0 on my garden weather station in Wakefield at 1.20pm - coldest day for a long time!

Indeed - there's more mileage in this story yet. Edge of the seat stuff!

Not necessarily. Ian F replied to a couple of Tweets recently and suggested that his preferred models were UKMO, ECM, GEM, ICON, and JMA, with GFS in last place!

So there we have it, Ian F’s focus is on UKMO, ECM, and GEM. ICON rated to GFS appears to be less favoured!

One thing I can never work out is how do you know where the front will lie - is there and easy/foolproof way to tell from a chart like this?

Currently 1.3C on my garden weather station here in Wakefield after after an overnight low of -0.7C (recorded at 07:47). As for the mid to long term picture, I'd very much like a decent snowfall! Cold weather is all very well but would like it to be a bit more interesting than dry and frosty

Is that not 10:00am (thus Friday morning, not "tomorrow night")

Why don’t you wait? Lots of frames to come yet.

Low pressure systems sliding into cold air and under the block is very much reminiscent of some of the classic snowy periods of the 70s and 80s. If anywhere in the UK manages to avoid decent snowfall in the next couple of weeks they would be very unlucky. Is this spell going to go down in history as one of the classics? Let's see... things bode well for now, but there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we get to next week. One thing is for sure, the model runs keep on giving - this is amongst the best period of model watching I've seen and I've been here since 2005.

I know it won’t end up like this, but 2cm on the M62 corridor between Goole and Leeds (basically my neck of the woods)

Another magnificent GFS with lows sliding below the block into the cold air. Somewhere is going to get a decent frontal snowfall you would think.

I can't see why it would dampen the mood - another brilliant run right out to 240 hours!

I would imagine wages. I have to say the Met Office are poor payers, certainly in the IT Department. I spent some time look at jobs and the salaries and just not attractive compared to other similar jobs elsewhere.