Paul_1978

Agreed. And with that you only have to look at the Met Office view in their longer range output issues today, eg: So whilst appreciating this is not the Met Office outlook thread, you only have to look at all the evidence suggesting a return to colder conditions. The time period stated above is just starting to come into range on the GFS, so all eyes on the output for these suggested trends appearing, especially once we have got over the less cold spell that seems likely to follow during mid December.

Respectfully disagree TEITS . I think everyone expects a less cold spell is on the cards (and still over a week away), and GP and Tamara expect this too. Longer term signals suggest a return to a colder pattern, and of course not forgetting the Met Office output which has been consistently stating a cold theme for the rest of the month "with brief milder periods". For me, this is exactly what we are seeing in the output so not unexpected, and we could say everything is going to plan. As regards the GFS 06z, it looks a like it's going to be a cold week! We have a northerly influence all the way out to T+186 (8 days away!) and even after that the Atlantic doesn't really make any inroads. (Appreciate it's one run). Going back to Sunday's "slider", I think it's interesting how a secondary low pressure centre actually starts moving back up the country again on Monday, with cold air well and truly entrenched. Surely Monday has got just as much, if not more potential than Sunday. Model watching at its best!

Yes on closer inspection, the "milder" (less cold?) trend starts around the 17th.... that's 9/10 days away yet! A lot of water to pass under the bridge before then.

The funny thing is if we were watching this run 4 weeks ago, we'd all be marvelling at the state of the Atlantic and WAA into Greenland at T+150. It's easy to forget what we're seeing before our very eyes. GFS is out to T+150 and the output is fantastic - a potent snow event on our doorstep for some of us, then OK, north westerlies, but by the end of the week we're back to northerlies again. After that who knows, but I'm detecting a bit of despondency and I don't really know why. This is the best model watching we've had for years!

Well as someone said, that's a dramatic shift from what everyone was saying this time last night. But on the plus side we've still got GP's and Tamara'a background signals which are apparently very good if you are of the cold persuasion.

Interesting stuff @Tamara Will take less notice of the AO/NAO forecasts!

Today's graphs hot off the press. Compare to yesterday's.....

Make your mind up Warren!

....might recover

I think you need to get off the rollercoaster mate! The 06z is not really any different to the 00z so far and we have lots of wintry weather in the near future and beyond. This is fantastic model watching, and a time to keep emotions in check and enjoy the output. I mean look at this at T+168 from the 06z - we'd have given our right arms for charts like this last year. There really is little we can complain about in the grand scheme of things.

And we had a lot of posts last night along the lines of: "All route lead to cold", "Cold spell will be protracted" "The cold keeps coming" "Ensembles are in good agreement til 20th Dec". A few hours is long time in weather....... Having said that, GP's update a few posts up as well as Tamara's, are good news for cold lovers, not forgetting the latest MetOffice extended update which is the most "wintry" I've seen for a while. So despite this 'more convincing look of zonal' we appear to have a lot of cards stacked in our favour.

It's totally expected though isn't it. We've been reading for a while now that it's going to be cold with "brief milder blips". That is exactly what's happening at T+144 on the ECM - a milder blip, for we are back in a potent northerly-westerly by T+168 and northerly by T+192. There's nothing to be particularly concerned about!!

How are stratospheric winds actually measured? Presumably there's no anemometers up there .

In practical terms what would this give?

Indeed! And here is is from Wetterzentrale. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this!

Yes, if the GFS is anything to go by it's going to be absolutely bitter next week.

The GFS 06z was starting to have a Westerly component by T+132. That is not the case on the 12z - remaining very much from a Northerly quadrant. Edit: Compare the 06z to the 12z for midnight on this coming Tuesday.

Latest NAO and AO graphs. Some very negative AO members....

@EML Network If you watch the latest BBC Weather For The Week you will see that next week appears to be more "interesting" than you think, so keep watching those models!

It would be useful to quote your source for this, ie Ian Fergusson, as per the Model Tweets thread.

Potential of pressure rise to N/NE around the 18th Dec as per ECM and Glosea, courtesy Ian Fergusson.

It was only last night that we were being informed of exactly the opposite ! A few hours is a long time in weather.

Pretty much every frame of the 00z ECM is brilliant. So good to see these charts being turned out consistently.

Not sure how reliable these charts are but if we get 8" of snow in Yorkshire, I'll eat my hat!

Am I in some kind of parallel universe or what? We'd have given our right arms for charts like this last winter. And the winter before. And the winter before. These charts are being turned out regularly. It's brilliant to watch.