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Everything posted by Paul_1978
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA. -
I feel the Disagree button would be very useful to save having to reply and create unnecessary congestion on the board, particularly the Model Output Discussion thread.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s FI not F1, which means Fantasy Island, another way of saying ‘beyond the reliable timeframe’ and therefore unlikely to be accurate. A lot of people still erroneously put “F1” on here! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exactly - how many times have we seen this type of thing and remarked that “it’s 2 months too late”. -
Are we getting the "Disagree" button back now that the Christmas and New Year reactions should no longer be required?
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Maybe so for you in Slovakia, but a couple of frames on for the rest of us in the UK I don't think many people would complain too much as the low moves east and puts us in a north-easterly. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed - with a Greenland high like that, anything can happen, as is showing in the latter stages of the 12z GFS. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s correct - cold lover’s interest not until timeframes beyond what this graphic is showing. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The MO forecasts will be as usual - balanced and impartial - i.e. simply forecasting the weather without being sensationalist. There was a good post on here a few days ago about good reasons to ignore the control (can't just put my finger on it), I think due to its resolution - it's a futile exercise. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmmmm, they didn’t quite put it like that -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
First of all, what is the source of this? -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Paul_1978 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Who on earth wrote today's summary? Terrible use of the English language! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
According to his profile, @mushymanrob hasn’t visited the forum since 20th Nov. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Come on now, whilst some far reaching charts are starting to look good, there is absolutely no way you can say we will be in a deep freezer until April. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which is here if anyone is wondering: Increasing possibility of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the New Year which may bring colder weather WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Blog looking at the increasing probability from weather models for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in early January, which could bring colder and wintry... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think anyone is expecting anything otherwise to be honest, at least in the next 2 weeks. There is perhaps a pattern change expected into January, and the impression I get from posts I see here is that most people are accepting of that. So for now it's a case of watching out for the pattern change starting to appear in the far reaches of FI, and nothing more at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You didn’t mention the words “upstream” or “shortwave” - are you OK Nick -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In the last few runs, Christmas Day has had northerlies, south-westerlies, north-westerlies, westerlies, and now northerlies again. I’m not trusting any run - nothing is any clearer despite the day getting closer! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We all know it won’t, we’ve been bitten too many times before - and the underwhelming MO update today is keeping my feet on the ground. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes there are......... "three hundred and eighty-four hours". -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Paul_1978 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be fair Nick, after tomorrow I think I pretty much everyone has accepted return to less cold conditions and a wet week ahead. I think we’re all looking to mid month now for signs of a change back to cold, and at that timescale the models will vary wildly. So for me, it’s a case of enjoy the next 48 hours, accept the rainy week, and keep a watching brief on developments towards the middle of December. -
I like a bit of everything to be honest! I like the thrill of the chase when it comes to snow, and cold and frosty mornings. However I have hobbies that involve being outdoors and as such I don't mind mild spells during the winter. Also, as our bedroom is in a loft conversion I do like listening to the rain on the roof during the night. I think the only weather I dislike is damp, dark and grey - thoroughly miserable. In response to @Weather Enthusiast91's post, I do sometimes find that as I get older that I like the cold less, particularly as I get Raynauds, and don't like spending money on heating (tight Yorkshireman). In conclusion though, my greatest weather memories are the big snow events, and I'd like to see another Feb '91 before too long.
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Paul_1978 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Indeed Don - there certainly appears to be a shift in thinking in the last 24 hours based on that update. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Paul_1978 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So the evening models runs pretty much all give us all something to hang our hats on with southerly tracking lows and as usual the 0z runs dash our hopes against the rocks - should have known that was going to happen!