Paul_1978

When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA.

I feel the Disagree button would be very useful to save having to reply and create unnecessary congestion on the board, particularly the Model Output Discussion thread.

It’s FI not F1, which means Fantasy Island, another way of saying ‘beyond the reliable timeframe’ and therefore unlikely to be accurate. A lot of people still erroneously put “F1” on here!

Exactly - how many times have we seen this type of thing and remarked that “it’s 2 months too late”.

Are we getting the "Disagree" button back now that the Christmas and New Year reactions should no longer be required?

Maybe so for you in Slovakia, but a couple of frames on for the rest of us in the UK I don't think many people would complain too much as the low moves east and puts us in a north-easterly.

Indeed - with a Greenland high like that, anything can happen, as is showing in the latter stages of the 12z GFS.

That’s correct - cold lover’s interest not until timeframes beyond what this graphic is showing.

The MO forecasts will be as usual - balanced and impartial - i.e. simply forecasting the weather without being sensationalist. There was a good post on here a few days ago about good reasons to ignore the control (can't just put my finger on it), I think due to its resolution - it's a futile exercise.

Hmmmm, they didn’t quite put it like that

Thunder and lightning over towards Lofthouse (Wakefield/Leeds) and a short torrential downpour. Unusual to get thunder and lightning at this time of year!

First of all, what is the source of this?

Who on earth wrote today's summary? Terrible use of the English language!

According to his profile, @mushymanrob hasn’t visited the forum since 20th Nov.

Come on now, whilst some far reaching charts are starting to look good, there is absolutely no way you can say we will be in a deep freezer until April.

Which is here if anyone is wondering: Increasing possibility of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the New Year which may bring colder weather WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Blog looking at the increasing probability from weather models for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in early January, which could bring colder and wintry...

I don't think anyone is expecting anything otherwise to be honest, at least in the next 2 weeks. There is perhaps a pattern change expected into January, and the impression I get from posts I see here is that most people are accepting of that. So for now it's a case of watching out for the pattern change starting to appear in the far reaches of FI, and nothing more at the moment.

You didn’t mention the words “upstream” or “shortwave” - are you OK Nick

In the last few runs, Christmas Day has had northerlies, south-westerlies, north-westerlies, westerlies, and now northerlies again. I’m not trusting any run - nothing is any clearer despite the day getting closer!

We all know it won’t, we’ve been bitten too many times before - and the underwhelming MO update today is keeping my feet on the ground.

Yes there are......... "three hundred and eighty-four hours".

To be fair Nick, after tomorrow I think I pretty much everyone has accepted return to less cold conditions and a wet week ahead. I think we’re all looking to mid month now for signs of a change back to cold, and at that timescale the models will vary wildly. So for me, it’s a case of enjoy the next 48 hours, accept the rainy week, and keep a watching brief on developments towards the middle of December.

I like a bit of everything to be honest! I like the thrill of the chase when it comes to snow, and cold and frosty mornings. However I have hobbies that involve being outdoors and as such I don't mind mild spells during the winter. Also, as our bedroom is in a loft conversion I do like listening to the rain on the roof during the night. I think the only weather I dislike is damp, dark and grey - thoroughly miserable. In response to @Weather Enthusiast91's post, I do sometimes find that as I get older that I like the cold less, particularly as I get Raynauds, and don't like spending money on heating (tight Yorkshireman). In conclusion though, my greatest weather memories are the big snow events, and I'd like to see another Feb '91 before too long.

Indeed Don - there certainly appears to be a shift in thinking in the last 24 hours based on that update.

So the evening models runs pretty much all give us all something to hang our hats on with southerly tracking lows and as usual the 0z runs dash our hopes against the rocks - should have known that was going to happen!