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Everything posted by Paul_1978
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
winterof79 At least that’s at T+192, not T+384 like most other strat charts that get posted! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WYorksWeather Now that's what you call a measured and informative post, versus the ones that seem to delight in telling us we're getting cold rain and adding laughing emojis. Top post WYW -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
northwestsnow To be fair the pros have simply said there will be high pressure around, but could not say where. I don't think anything is "unravelling" as there was no firm situation to unravel. Personally looking forward to what next week brings and then take it form there -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Why? And why not post a chart with a bit more narrative? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@MATTWOLVES 3 -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Paul_1978 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It’s extremely disingenuous to meteorologists to state their profession is all “guesswork”. I’m sure you don’t mean it exactly like that, and there’s better turns of phrase you could use. -
Model fatigue is well and truly setting in if @bluearmyand @Met4Cast are on the wane. For me it's this - do we all chase cold because we want calm, cold, benign weather? Perhaps so given all the rain and flooding recently. But I think for most of us it's because we want snow, and for many of us our greatest weather memories are 1979, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2013, 2018 to name but a few. Are we getting snow next week? The answer seems to be yes (although we don't know exactly where), so that's a big green tick Therefore the models are giving us what many of us actually want. I for one am enjoying the ride, and we are only on 10th Jan!
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surprisingly negative vibe from some in here. Models look great this morning if it’s snow you’re after, with the snow line obviously yet to be determined, but the broad theme is the same. Perhaps a relaxation of cold the week after but even then we can’t be sure - the cold may even hang on - and there’s still February to look forward to yet. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ha ha, updated my original post - losing track of days! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still showing last updated Tuesday wherever I look - website and app. EDIT - scrap that, it IS Tuesday!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not if you mute the right people, and it makes for much more pleasant viewing. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Am I in some kind of parallel universe here? I think most of us want snow, not something cold and dry. Lots of runs are showing snow for next week (exact placement to be determined). We know that there is likely to be a relaxation of cold after this before the next cold chase into Feb. Am I missing something here? If you are wanting snow I don't see there is a lot to complain about - it's quite exciting in my view. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
VERY interesting output - as the low approaches from the south-west by T+192, there is clearly a lot of precipitation which could get interesting for many as it bumps into the cold air. THEN as it passes through by T+222 the cold air appears to start to dig back south again. Could be a snow-rain-snow or even a continual snow event for 24/36 hours or more. We often talk about showers not cutting the mustard but this could be the holy grail of a frontal snow event. The million dollar question will be where the snow/rain line is and of course there is a long way to go before that is anywhere near being nailed down. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Says updated at 15:00 today and yet it is only 13:30!?!? Regardless, a good update if it is cold/snow you are after. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The question is for most of us, will such a pattern give us showers with negligible accumulations, or something frontal and more prolonged? Too early for the detail for sure, but broadly speaking? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Prolonged cold…. are you sure? Bold statement! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They look pretty much identical? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The low to the south west as it moves in - forecast probably correct for Ireland, whilst mainland UK remains colder. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Totally expected - there’s never much precipitation associated with high pressure. Interest comes as low pressures potentially starts to encroach into cold air the week after. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Paul_1978 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
May be of interest!