SnowJoke
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Posts posted by SnowJoke
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Storm still very active and slowly approaching Buckingham, Cloud tops are huge and am under the shadow being cast from this storm cell, now completely lost the sunshine and it's gone oddly calm and getting darker all the while.
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Hi all, I've just left approximately 150k people enjoying a very sweltering Bedford River festival. From the safety of my home I'm looking at that system approaching Bicester and wondering if it will track north, south, die out or smash into all those lovely people! There appears to be a corridor of 1800kj cape and 6.5li so wondering if that will play a part.
What do the experts think? Thanks in advance.
I'd keep a close eye on it, current tracks takes it past Bicester, Buckingham and MK, if it heads NE it'll move towards Northampton but if it takes a jump to the east like at did 2o minutes ago Bedford looks like being clobbered in a hour or so if it maintains intensity.
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I can see the cell over Oxford from here amazing cloud tops, some of the biggest ive ever seen in the UK.
Watch it closely, brief interlude where the lightning dropped away a little before picking up again now, very distinct right move on lightning plotter, I think it may be cyclic and is beginning to form a new meso. From Campbell Park in MK I can see the huge cloud tops some 50 miles to the SW it looks like a monster.
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Strong Hook echo showing on the Swindon storm heading into Oxford shortly. Looks dangerous and could drop a tornado or extremely large hail.
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As the storm rumbles its' way towards Chesterfield I have to ask myself what the chances might be of that cell near Swindon making its way all the way north to here?
The answer has to be 'vanishingly small', at least in its current state, so I think that might be it for today .
It's a super cell and moving ENE, current track if it can sustain itself and move in to the stronger sheared environment it will move through Oxford, Bicester, Buckingham, Milton Keynes and Bedord before heading into Cambridgeshire if it can live that long and is Cyclic in nature.
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Over on UKWW there has been confirmed rotation in the cell close to Swindon, some ones about to jump in the car and go chase it. An experienced severe weather forecaster and storm chaser is confirming that it is a low topped super cell, going by his convective forecast it will begin to move into a strongly sheared environment within the next hour. Possibility of a Tornado from this cell.
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Storm in Wiltshire close to Swindon needs watching closely, it's taken a distinctive right movement in the last 45 mins, as it's isolated and the only cell in the area it may well be a supercell feeding off all the energy. Real time lightning plotter shows a northerly pattern and then a rapid eastward shift in strikes as well.
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Atmosphere has suddenly changed round here. Temperature has risen to 26.5'c and the cloud development is explosive, you can see Cumulus change to Towering Cumulus and then Cumulus Congestus with the naked eye, very impressive to see.
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Lets hope something kicks off a little further east. Currently everything is too far west for me lol
Watch the cluster of showers developing SW of Oxford, with current movement they have our neck of the woods written all over them later on if they can intensify
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Active cell now firing up north of Hungerford, should head towards Oxford.
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Earlier Wiltshire storm cluster seems to be decaying with new cells forming on the eastern side in the outflow all rapidly pushing ENE, also a lovely cell north of Andover that I'm watching with the current track I may see it later on if it holds together. Sun is out now with blue skies here and some cumulus development. Temp has risen to 25.2'c in the last hour.
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New storm cells forming over in France south of Le Havre could possibly impact Sussex & Kent late afternoon early evening if they hold strength and make it across the channel.
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I think that Wiltshire Lightning system will go north to the north-west. I hope it will grow further and gets here in the north-west. I think Birmingham urban heat will help it to grow further and stay in the game.
If it's developing super cellular characteristics it will move in a NE or NNE direction, no where near Lancashire.
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Wiltshire storm system has taken a distinct rightward movement in the last 30 mins, more evident on the lightning charts. If it moves towards the areas with high cape values it's going to become a monster.
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Cloudy and extremely humid here in Milton Keynes, not sure if we had any more thunder last night after the evenings little storm which produced mostly constant lightning and very little rainfall as I was knackered from the previous nights round of storms and would of slept through an atomic bomb.blast. Some signs of the cloud layer trying to break up and it's all eye's down S'arf that is building over the French coast. Even if they don't make it this far, the way it feels outside it'll go bang quickly in any sunny spells.
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Got a feeling something is going to kick off around here fairly soon once more. Keep getting bursts of very heavy convective rainfall. Like someone turning a garden hose on and off.
Nothing firing in east anglia due to the left over clag of the earlier MCS further south east, showing well on IR sat.
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Not too much has happened in the last twenty minutes, except for a strike near Portsmouth and a few more strikes in the Northampton storms.
Storms to the north of milton keynes are still very active, I can see the lightning from almost 60 miles away now. The real time plotter is not recording the strikes probably due to the high altitude?
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My oh My, there is now lightning coming from every direction, in the distance but there must be cell exploding into life all over the place. Can hear the rumbles and booms and see the lightning in every direction from Campbell Park.
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Cell close to MK, now heading north is pumping out two to three lighting flashes per second, and more developing on top of me. That last roll of thunder was a ground shaker.
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Oh wow this little cell is starting to go nuts and throw out lightning bolts all over the place, constant deep rolling thunder to my south. 6 storms in one day must be a record
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Raining now from mid layer cloud with lightning and thunder rolling to my south around leighton buzzard
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BINGO!!!! Lightning sighted miles to the north-west of here, just lit up the sky, I suspect around Aylesbury. Anyone over Milton Keynes, Northampton way, keep a lookout!!!
Aye been watching turkey towers and a couple of CB's to my SW as the sun was setting. Still 26.6'c outside here at the minute and it has that lovely smell to the air that normally accompanies convective rainfall.
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Are there little cells developing to the NE of Oxford?
Indeed I think there are cells NE of Oxford. I could see them to the SW of MK being illuminated by the setting sun.
Strike just been picked up to the north of Aylesbury just west of Wing. Corresponds nicely to the towers I could see to the SW of MK
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Some very convective skies around now as the sun was setting, managed to snap a nice turkey tower going up.
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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
What the hell, Oxford cell was holding ground on a NE track as it approached MK, even looked like it was producing a large hail core with rainfall rates of 200mm/hr. It's suddenly taken a northward track missed MK, hit Towcester and appears to be dying out electrically. All I have is a strong gusty wind and overcast angry looking skies.