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Posts posted by SnowJoke

  1. 6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    I saw a chart earlier showing the last 3 days lightning strikes with a void over the Midlands and some of CS England. If the high res charts are correct today then that void could be closed out a bit, to just include Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire :D. It is annoying though, i remember back in 2012-2014 the East Midlands was doing great for storms.

    I agree, 2012-2104 it was excellent for storms round here. Last couple of years not so great and so far this year it's non existent. All we seem to have so far this year are heavy decaying remnants of storms. Might all change though as it's still very early in the year for storms. Keeping an eye on that shower cluster approaching the SW as it could develop into something good later in the midlands.

  2. Getting very humid outside in MK. Been playing snooker this morning, popped out of the club for a smoke and a shower dropped some large raindrops accompanied by the classic petrichor smell. Eye's to the SW around Wilts, Somerset area as hefty showers are forming there and moving NNW. I'm hoping for something this evening and overnight elevated in nature drifting north from the channel.

  3. 4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    Can't believe there's been a westward shift! That is literally due to me posting earlier about the models always shifting everything East. Sod's law!


    Not that i'm complaining;)

    I did say in an earlier post, it looked much better than other setups due to the weak Jet not tearing everything apart or pushing it away into Benelux. Upper steering winds are backed much more strongly than forecast which will also help everything form further west and push NNE instead of eastward.

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  4. See the forum is full of negativity this morning, I have a feeling some people are going to get hammered overnight. This year storm wise seems to be much more active than the last few years. I've seen 5 thunderstorms in June alone, that is more than I've seen in the previous two years here. One good thing so far this year is the weak jet stream, last few years it's been on a mad one and either rips every storm to pieces or pushes it across into Benelux. This year is different as is tonight, with the Azores high ridging up to our south west it's blocking the cooler Atlantic feed and diverting the jet stream which in theory should allow the Theta plume to become much more established over southern areas. Reminds me of setups from the early to mid 90's.

  5. 11 minutes ago, MartinD said:

    I was just looking through the UK CAPE+lifted index chart and the last one shows this.... This would be so awesome if it actually happened :) 

    a big day.png

    Pipe dreams this far out from the gfs, If it did occur the temperatures must be forecast to be excessive and quite frank;y that amount of CAPE & -LI in the UK would mean a mass rush to purchase new trousers. The storms would me monsters compared to what we usually see...

    • Like 1
  6. 13 minutes ago, MartinD said:

    So do we stand a chance of seeing anything exciting tomorrow in the West Midlands area, Your thoughts would be very welcome indeed...

    GFS showing precipitation in the west midlands tomorrow afternoon, along with a couple of hundred kilo joules of cape and a slight lifted index of -1 to -2. Possibility of showers but unsure if anything electrical will occur, perhaps with wind convergence and topography you might see something. Nowhere near the amount of latent energy about as available yesterday. 

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