SnowJoke
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Posts posted by SnowJoke
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@Dami There is a lot of high level cloud around in Milton Keynes this morning but temp is close to 23'c now, hotter than forecast. In any clear spots I've been seeing some large Alto Cumulus towers building skyward rapidly, so instability in the mid levels is present. Just hoping something can fire up before the clag from the front spoils our chances,
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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:
I saw a chart earlier showing the last 3 days lightning strikes with a void over the Midlands and some of CS England. If the high res charts are correct today then that void could be closed out a bit, to just include Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire
. It is annoying though, i remember back in 2012-2014 the East Midlands was doing great for storms.
I agree, 2012-2104 it was excellent for storms round here. Last couple of years not so great and so far this year it's non existent. All we seem to have so far this year are heavy decaying remnants of storms. Might all change though as it's still very early in the year for storms. Keeping an eye on that shower cluster approaching the SW as it could develop into something good later in the midlands.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
No detectors seem to be picking up the lightning around here, not even my own when the CG hit. It's still thundering too.
Lightning detectors are having trouble keeping up, so many strikes and the system is huge.
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6 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:
Had Massive Drops from the shower passing over Tiverton, Devon from a rapidly developing shower!
Interesting though as there has been little if any sunshine here at all.
Showers forming even though cloudy, is likely to be the higher ground, Quantock hills and Exmoor forcing development.
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Getting very humid outside in MK. Been playing snooker this morning, popped out of the club for a smoke and a shower dropped some large raindrops accompanied by the classic petrichor smell. Eye's to the SW around Wilts, Somerset area as hefty showers are forming there and moving NNW. I'm hoping for something this evening and overnight elevated in nature drifting north from the channel.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It's happening here as well. The moon is fully lit, with just the odd few Cumulus clouds floating by, very strange!
Could it be a military exercise going on at Salisbury plain area? Possible with all the heightened tensions between the west and Russia.
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Just now, March said:
Storm just hitting! Wasn't expecting it! Impressive flashes.
Developed just to the SW of Milton Keynes and dropped loads of heavy rainfall, 5 or 6 really bright flashes of lightning and some cracks of very loud thunder. Wasn't expecting a storm either as it doesn't feel stormy and only 10'c outside, very odd.
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Feels like groundhog day here. Another morning with leaden skies and relentless drizzle. Plus side it looks like it may clear faster than yesterday, so always a chance of some homegrown storms later on. Pretty sure we will miss anything that sprouts up in the channel or over France.
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4 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Can't believe there's been a westward shift! That is literally due to me posting earlier about the models always shifting everything East. Sod's law!
Not that i'm complaining;)
I did say in an earlier post, it looked much better than other setups due to the weak Jet not tearing everything apart or pushing it away into Benelux. Upper steering winds are backed much more strongly than forecast which will also help everything form further west and push NNE instead of eastward.
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See the forum is full of negativity this morning, I have a feeling some people are going to get hammered overnight. This year storm wise seems to be much more active than the last few years. I've seen 5 thunderstorms in June alone, that is more than I've seen in the previous two years here. One good thing so far this year is the weak jet stream, last few years it's been on a mad one and either rips every storm to pieces or pushes it across into Benelux. This year is different as is tonight, with the Azores high ridging up to our south west it's blocking the cooler Atlantic feed and diverting the jet stream which in theory should allow the Theta plume to become much more established over southern areas. Reminds me of setups from the early to mid 90's.
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Amazing sky in Milton Keynes. Thunder died off for 10 mins or so as the core rained out and lost inflow. Now cycling and building a new core and in the last five mins it's started throwing out lightning once more.
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England scored the winner and now we have thunder in Milton Keynes. Good day just got better.
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Cells going up rapidly to the south and south west of Milton Keynes. Sky is full of towering cumulus and cumulonimbus. Temp sitting at 18.4'c with a DP of 14'c. Gonna go bang soon.
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Some breaks appearing in the cloud cover in the last hour. Now have huge towering cumulus developing rapidly, very dark low bases on them. Wouldn't be surprised to see some storms firing in the next couple of hours.
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Amazing afternoon in Milton Keynes today. Nearly two hours of lightning and thunder and biblical rainfall that caused surface flooding in places. Thunder was incredibly loud again, must have been a lot of positive strikes. Couple of pics below of the menacing clouds before the second storm hit. Couldn't get any lightning shots was raining to hard to go outside.
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11 minutes ago, MartinD said:
I was just looking through the UK CAPE+lifted index chart and the last one shows this.... This would be so awesome if it actually happened
Pipe dreams this far out from the gfs, If it did occur the temperatures must be forecast to be excessive and quite frank;y that amount of CAPE & -LI in the UK would mean a mass rush to purchase new trousers. The storms would me monsters compared to what we usually see...
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Suns out here in MK. Line of convection sitting directly west of here and hardly moving. Seems to be back building all the while with wind convergence and moving away. Some really impressive cloud structures.
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Can hear thunder rumbling away to my NW. Getting more frequent.
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Very large cumulus congestus building in all directions around Milton Keynes. Think it's only a matter of time before it goes bang again. Two days in a row? Amazing.
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13 minutes ago, MartinD said:
So do we stand a chance of seeing anything exciting tomorrow in the West Midlands area, Your thoughts would be very welcome indeed...
GFS showing precipitation in the west midlands tomorrow afternoon, along with a couple of hundred kilo joules of cape and a slight lifted index of -1 to -2. Possibility of showers but unsure if anything electrical will occur, perhaps with wind convergence and topography you might see something. Nowhere near the amount of latent energy about as available yesterday.
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3 minutes ago, paul_montague said:
Strike near Guildford so its not dead yet!!!
Everything is slowly decaying, GFS has CAPE disappearing slowly overnight with only a small pocket at 3AM around north Cambridgeshire, then slowing increasing again from 6AM on wards. If the little area of rain in north Cambs holds together it may well reinvigorate towards dawn with solar heating.
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4 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:
BLOODY HELL!!!!
Was just on the bog and saw a flash in the window behind me from nowhere, thunder followed seconds later.
Just seen several close flashes over the chalfonts in South Bucks. Much better than 1-2 hours ago's storm, closer at least.At least you were in the right place and no change of trousers needed!
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Quite a few cells still going with a handful of new developments. Plenty of mid level instability in the atmosphere still, people might get rudely awakened at any point tonight the way things are popping up all over the place.
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Storms over Oxfordshire way heading south or southeast, MK central cluster rotating around themselves and the earlier storm moving northeast still. Has a low pressure center developed along the weather front right in the middle of the country? Currently there isn't breath of wind hear in MK, just deep distant rumbling thunder.
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. It is annoying though, i remember back in 2012-2014 the East Midlands was doing great for storms.
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Currently 32.4'c in the CentreMK. humidity sat around 42% with a Dew point around 19'c. High cover of cirrus making the sun hazy, but boy is it hot and still getting warmer. Like a furnace outside today.