Summer of '47

Currently 11.2 °C with sunny intervals and a light rain shower overhead just now. This exact time last year it was -2.6 °C, with 23cm of snow cover!

I'm glad to see he has acknowledged that his forecast was wrong (albeit using what looks like pure technobabble to blame an unforeseeable event - which kind of nerfs his standpoint that his method means weather is predictable months in advance). Perhaps his supporters will have the grace to do the same and that they were wrong to maintain it was correct despite ongoing evidence to the contrary. I remember when his forecasts were for seemingly endless killer storms and surges so it'srather ironic that he has missed this stormy spell that started last week with the Faroes, Scottish Islands and Norway getting a battering.

'exceptionally cold' are not as I would have it but the words of the forecast itself. This period last year was certainly exceptionally cold and to day is nothing like that ( a light air frost here yes but a max of 10C this afternoon ). For this forecast to verify I am looking for widespread temperatures comparable to last year's. As I said let's wait for a couple of weeks and see...I will be honest if you will.

But would you really call this late November weather we have "exceptionally cold"? I mean really? If someone nails their colours to the mast with an exact time period and uses the words "exceptionally cold" then that is what it has to be judged by. Were this statement worded less specifically then we could and should allow rather more latitude. However, the characteristic outlook for the next few days is that it is looking rather unsettled with fairly average ranges of temperature, so let's re-visit it in a couple of weeks and see if we can call the start of December "exceptionally cold".

First air frost here since March with -0.8 °C. Slight patchy ground frost on some surfaces.

He who sticks his neck out must be prepared to risk having it chopped off :winky: Besides, when you see the scorn he and his believers pour on the Met Office and "conventional" meteorology, well don't dish it out if you can't take it.

This is what Davis have to say about Windchill calculation on the Weatherlink software I think most of us would agree that we can perceive windchill above 40 °F ! Here's a chart which shows windchill using Steadman's formula even up to 20 °C http://www.weather.o.../wind_chill.htm I think 20 °C is a bit OTT, but clearly high winds from say the N or NE on a day at 15 °C gives a rather different feel to the same temp on a calm day.

Windchill is regarded as insignificant at temperatures of 10 °C or higher, no matter what the wind strength or direction - for the sake of calculation at least even though our bodies might notice an effect. Same with heat index being disregarded below certain temperatures.

Its been one of the mildest late November days in my own records of 25 years. I know that the MetO can get things badly wrong from time to time and get panned for it but I get a great joy when these wildly over-ambitious long range "forecasts" from the fringe goes mammaries vertical.

Very pleasant day despite high cloud increasing and a slightly cooling breeze. Pretty much uninterrupted sunshine here so far. @15.00 BST Temp = 21.2 °C RHum = 29% Baro = 1028.2 Wind = light, swirling about a bit but mostly NW

May was the third consecutive very dry month here with only 23% of the average rainfall. The rain was generally in the form of short although sometimes sharp showers with thunder on one day. The month ended with temperatures a little above average; daily maxima were very unexceptional and unusually below that of the (exceptional) April, no days could be described as hot. Sunshine hours were a little above average at 227 hours. Daily brakdown at http://www.tonbridge...011/2011-05.htm

Since 1st March here we have had only 21.9 mm rainfall and only 11 days with measurable rain. A reasonable winter for precip means that there is no short or medium term problem with water supply to homes but the ground is bone dry to a depth of several inches, so here at least we would like to hear about the promise of rain. It still looks like a fairly dry outlook for the foreseeable though.

At 14.10 BST Rather drab day, cloudy or overcast predominating with only brief glimpses of sunshine, but dry so far. Temperature = 13.8 °C ( max 14.9 °C ) Dewpoint = 8.2 °C Rel Humidity = 68% Windpeed = 9 max 20 mph from SW Barometer = 1012.5 hPa steady. Sunshine duration approx 30 mins

Current conditions at 15.30 BST Temperature: 15.2 °C ( max 15.2 °C) Dewpoint: 10.8 °C Rel. Humiidity: 75% Precipitation: 0.0 mm Wind: SW 4.3 mph avg, max 17 mph Barometer: 1013.3 steady Sunshine Hours: 0.1 Cloudy day with very little sunshine. Some very light spots of rain now and again but essentially dry.

Since the last "proper" rainfall, just a few light rain shower in the last week. 5.3mm to add to 1.1 mm in April.

No record, either for February or all time. Record low in Finland is -51.5C at Kittila-Pokka (back in the 19th Century I think.)

An extremely warm, dry and sunny start to May 2008, becoming increasingly unsettled and cooler after mid month. The last week was especially wet with 57mm of the month's total of 72.4mm rainfall. Nonetheless it was the warmest May overall here since 1992 and the warmest start to any May since my records began in 1984. ----- MAY 2008 IN A NUTSHELL ----- Mean Daily Temperature 14.5 ºC ( 2.0C average )* Average max: 20.4 ºC ( 3.0C ABOVE average )* Average min: 9.8 ºC ( 1.4C ABOVE average )* Highest max: 27.8 ºC ( 10th ) Lowest min: 4.1 ºC ( 20th ) Warmest Daytime 12h Mean 24.0 ºC ( 10th ) Coldest Daytime 12h Mean 10.6 ºC ( 17th ) Coldest Nighttime 12h Mean 5.9 ºC ( 20th/21st ) Warmest Nighttime 12h Mean 15.6 ºC ( 10th ) Days with Tmax ≥ 20°C 19 days incl. Days with Tmax ≥ 25°C 6 days Total Rainfall: 72.4 mm ( 158% of average )* Total Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 11 days ( EQUAL to average )* incl Wet Days (=> 1.0mm) 9 days ( 1 ABOVE average )* Wettest Day: 23.9 mm ( 26th ) Max Rainfall in 1 hour 9.1 mm ( 28th, 02.00h) Wind Speed high gust: 27 mph ( 24th ) Dominant Wind Direction: N ( 17% ) Mean Daily Pressure: 1013.8 hPa Highest Pressure: 1024.3 hPa ( 5th ) Lowest Pressure: 998.3 hPa ( 1st ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 190 Hours ( ABOUT average )* ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 161.6 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2007 Full daily and monthly stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2008/2008-05.htm

In contrast to 2007, April lived up to its usual reputation for unpredictable weather. Although temperatures, rainfall and sunshine were near average at the end of the month, that hides some notable day-to-day variations. A high temp of 19.2 °C on the 4th was followed by a max of only 3.5 °C two days later. The heaviest and most prolonged snowfall of the November to April 2007/2008 period happened on the 6th which was also the coldest April day I have recorded here. There were plenty of downpours, also with hail and thunder, as well as fog. ----- APRIL 2008 IN A NUTSHELL ----- Mean Daily Temperature 8.7 ºC ( 0.1C BELOW average )* Average max: 13.5 ºC ( 0.3C BELOW average )* Average min: 4.8 ºC ( 0.4C BELOW average )* Highest max: 19.8 ºC ( 26th ) Lowest min: -2.1 ºC ( 8th ) Warmest Daytime 12h Mean 17.9 ºC ( 26th ) Coldest Daytime 12h Mean 0.7 ºC ( 6th ) Coldest Nighttime 12h Mean -0.2 ºC ( 7th/8th ) Warmest Nighttime 12h Mean 12.5 ºC ( 26th/27th ) No.of Airfrosts: 3 days Total Rainfall: 68 mm ( 128% of average )* Total Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 18 days ( 5 ABOVE average )* incl Wet Days (=> 1.0mm) 12 days ( 2 ABOVE average )* Wettest Day: 12.4 mm ( 29th ) Wind Speed high gust: 22 mph ( 11th & 12th ) Wind Speed Average 2.0 mph Dominant Wind Direction: SSW ( 32% ) Mean Daily Pressure: 1009.5 hPa Highest Pressure: 1030.2 hPa ( 3rd ) Lowest Pressure: 984.5 hPa ( 30th ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 140 Hours ( BELOW average )* ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 123.5 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2007 Full daily and monthly stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2008/2008-04.htm

Rainfall here was 195% of the March average. ----- MARCH 2008 IN A NUTSHELL ----- Mean Daily Temperature 6.8 ºC ( 0.1C ABOVE average )* Average max: 10.1 ºC ( 0.7C BELOW average )* Average min: 4.2 ºC ( 0.3C ABOVE average )* Highest max: 15.9 ºC ( 15th ) Lowest min: -1.3 ºC ( 23rd ) Warmest Daytime 12h Mean 13.0 ºC ( 15th ) Coldest Daytime 12h Mean 2.2 ºC ( 23rd ) Coldest Nighttime 12h Mean -0.3 ºC ( 22nd/23rd ) Warmest Nighttime 12h Mean 11.5 ºC ( 1st/2nd ) No.of Airfrosts: 2 days Total Rainfall: 90.3 mm ( 195% of average )* Total Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 21 days ( 7 MORE then average )* incl Wet Days (=> 1.0mm) 17 days ( 7 MORE than average )* Wettest Day: 26.7 mm ( 10th ) Wind Speed high gust: 38 mph ( 10th ) Wind Speed High Average 3.4 mph ( ) Dominant Wind Direction: SSW ( 33% ) Mean Daily Pressure: 1005.7 hPa Highest Pressure: 1035.4 hPa ( 5th ) Lowest Pressure: 963.7 hPa ( 10th ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 80 Hours ( Well BELOW average )* ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 66.2 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2007 Full daily and monthly stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2008/2008-03.htm

Dominated by high pressure and mild overall but unusually "continental" type conditions reminiscent of the Meseta of Spain with some very large daily ranges of temperature thanks to the prevalence of clear skies with some deep frosts but rapidly rising daytime temps. Unlike previous mild Februaries in my records (e.g. 2002, 2000, 1995, 1990) which were largely cloudy, wet and maritime in nature there were some very notable diurnal temperature ranges of 15C+. The range of 8.8C for the monthly average daily min/max beat that of 7.3C in 1998 which is the only other similar type of February since 1984 here. Rainfall was only 40% of average with no falling snow observed. Without the lingering fog that HP often brings here at this time, it was a remarkably sunny month with nearly double the usual total of hours of sunshine. ----- FEBRUARY 2008 IN A NUTSHELL ----- Mean Daily Temperature: 5.6 ºC ( 0.9C ABOVE average )* Average max: 10.6 ºC ( 2.8C ABOVE average )* Average min: 1.8 ºC ( 0.7C BELOW average )* Highest max: 14.9 ºC ( 9th ) Lowest min: -5.3 ºC ( 17th ) Warmest Daytime 12h Mean: 11.4 ºC ( 24th ) Coldest Daytime 12h Mean: 3.3 ºC ( 16th ) Coldest Nighttime 12h Mean: -3.4 ºC ( 16th/17th ) Warmest Nighttime 12h Mean: 10.4 ºC ( 25th/26th ) No.of Airfrosts: 12 days Total Rainfall: 20.5 mm ( 40% of average )* Total Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 11 days ( 3 BELOW average )* incl Wet Days (=> 1.0mm): 4 days ( 7 BELOW average )* Wettest Day: 10.9 mm ( 5th ) Wind Speed high gust: 32 mph ( 5th ) Dominant Wind Direction: SSW ( 37% ) Mean Daily Pressure: 1022.3 hPa Highest Pressure: 1042.4 hPa ( 16th ) Lowest Pressure: 987.0 hPa ( 4th ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 115 Hours ( WELL ABOVE average )* ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 101.5 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2007 Full daily and monthly stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2008/2008-02.htm

January 2008 turned out to be almost as mild as Jan 2007, but not quite, and virtually frost free. It was dominated by the Atlantic LPs with HP often lying to the south and southwest with mild and windy weather resulting. The monthly temperature was 2.3 degC above average and there were only 3 slight air frosts. Although there was a high number of days with rainfall the monthly total was only 97% of average, despite a very wet day on the 15th. It was also a very windy month after a calm first week, equal windiest month since installation of anemometer in 2004. Sunshine was a little below average with a long, gloomy mid month period. Wettest January day (15th) since recording began here in 1984 Highest January monthly minimum of -0.1 °C beat -1.3 °C in 2005 No falling snow or sleet observed during the month No thunder 2 days with fog -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- JANUARY 2008 IN A NUTSHELL ----- Mean Daily Temperature 7.2 ºC ( 2.3 C ABOVE average )* Average max: 9.2 ºC ( 2.0C ABOVE average )* Average min: 5.2 ºC ( 2.4C ABOVE average )* Highest max: 13.1 ºC ( 19th ) Lowest min: -0.1 ºC ( 17th ) Warmest Daytime 12h Mean 12.6 ºC ( 19th ) Coldest Daytime 12h Mean 1.4 ºC ( 3rd ) Coldest Nighttime 12h Mean 0.2 ºC ( 3rd ) Warmest Nighttime 12h Mean 12.5 ºC ( 18/19th ) No.of Airfrosts: 3 days Total Rainfall: 74.9 mm ( 97% of average )* Total Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 21 days ( 3 ABOVE average )* incl Wet Days (=> 1.0mm) 11 days ( 3 BELOW average )* Wettest Day: 27.8 mm ( 15th ) Wind Speed high gust: 34 mph ( 15th & 31st ) Dominant Wind Direction: SSW ( 42% ) Mean Daily Pressure: 1012.2 hPa Highest Pressure: 1036.6 hPa ( 24th ) Lowest Pressure: 975.5 hPa ( 15th ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 45 Hours ( Slightly BELOW average )* ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 28.2 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2007 Full daily and monthly stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2008/2008-01.htm

The month was again dominated by high pressure, and was the 4th successive November with below average rainfall. After a mild and dry start with plenty of sunshine, Atlantic depressions were more prevalent from the middle of the month. Conditions became more gloomy and wetter, particularly in the last week but rainfall ended as 63% of average, and sunshine just a little above average. In addition, Autumn 2007 was the driest September / October / November period here since 1985. ----- NOVEMBER IN A NUTSHELL ----- Mean Daily Temperature: 7.5 ºC ( 0.1C ABOVE average )* Average max: 10.4 ºC ( 0.1 ABOVE average )* Average min: 4.9 ºC ( 0.1C ABOVE average )* Highest max: 16.3 ºC ( 1st ) Lowest min: -2.9 ºC ( 16th ) No.of Airfrosts: 3 days Total Rainfall: 45.4 mm ( 63% of Average )* Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 15 days ( 1 BELOW average)* Wettest Day: 11.4 mm ( 19th ) Wind Speed high gust: 28 mph ( 18th ) Dominant Wind Direction: N 21% Mean Daily Pressure: 1019.3 hPa Highest Pressure: 1034.0 hPa ( 2nd ) Lowest Pressure: 993.0 hPa ( 19th ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 75 Hours ( 115% of average ) ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 43.5 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2006 Full daily and monthly stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2007/nov2007.htm

Coolest October here since 2003 Driest October here since 1995 Sunshine a little below average 7 days with fog, mainly from 11th to 15th Otherwise a fairly nondescript month, rather cooler here against average compared to the rest of the UK. --- OCTOBER IN A NUTSHELL --- Mean Daily Temperature 10.5 ºC Average max: 14.7 ºC ( 0.3C BELOW average )* Average min: 7.4 ºC ( 0.6C BELOW average ) * Highest max: 18.9 ºC ( 14th ) Lowest min: -0.9 ºC ( 23rd ) No.of Airfrosts: 2 days Total Rainfall: 36.4 mm ( 42% of Average )* Rain Days (>=0.2mm): 9 days Wettest Day: 14.0 mm ( 9th ) Wind Speed high gust: 22 mph ( 18th ) Dominant Wind Direction: SW ( 20% ) Mean Daily Pressure: 1022.9 hPa Highest Pressure: 1036.6 hPa ( 20th ) Lowest Pressure: 1009.4 hPa ( 17th ) Estimated Sunshine Hours **: 105 hours ** calculated from limited solar sensor exposure of 76.9 hours * average at this site 1984 - 2006 Complete daily and monthly stats at http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2007/oct2007.htm

The first three weeks of the month was characterised by fine and dry weather thanks to dominant high pressure in the mid Atlantic, although temperatures were unexceptional and interrupted by just one short cool interlude. It became increasingly windy and the last week was rather cool and wet. Rainfall for September was 39% of average, inside the driest quartile since recording began in 1984, with half the monthly rain total falling on the 24th. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly Mean: 14.6 ºC Average max: 19.3 ºC ( 0.2C ABOVE average ) Average min: 10.8 ºC ( 0.3C ABOVE average ) Highest max: 24.2 ºC ( 6th ) Lowest max: 12.7 ºC ( 26th ) Lowest min: 6.3 ºC ( 30th ) Highest min: 15.9 ºC ( 7th ) No.of Days with max < 20 ºC: 15 days No.of Days with max >= 25 ºC: 0 days Low Wind Chill: 5.7 ºC ( 25th ) Low THW Heat Index: 5.7 ºC ( 25th ) High THW Heat Index: 24.5 ºC ( 6th ) High THSW Sun Index: 30.2 ºC ( 6th ) Lowest RH%: 34 % ( 12th ) Lowest Dewpoint: 15.6 ºC ( 9th ) Highest Dewpoint: -0.5 ºC ( 18th ) Rain total: 22.2 mm ( 39% of Average ) Wettest day: 11.4 mm ( 24th ) Rain Days ( measurable ): 10 days Rain Days ( >= 1.0mm ): 3 days High Rain Rate: 18.5 mm/hr ( 25th ) Days with Thunder 0 days ( 7th ) EvapoTranspiration Total: 57.3 mm Wind Speed Average: 1.9 mph Wind Speed high gust: 24 mph ( 24th ) Wind Dominant Direction: SSW ( 25% ) followed by N, SW, NNW Mean Barometer: 1019.8 hPa Low Barometer: 1003.4 hPa ( 14th ) High Barometer: 1031.4 hPa ( 25th ) High Solar Radiation 1065 w/m2 ( 5th) Sunshine Hours 116.2 Hours ** Sunniest Day: 8.3 Hours ( 11th ) calculated with limited sensor exposure, estimate c. 12hrs actual daily total ** calculated with limited sensor exposure, estimate 145 hrs actual monthly total ( Near average ) * average at this site 1984 - 2006 Full daily stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2007/sep2007.htm

Very much a month of thirds. August 2007 divided into three parts: a fine and warm start; a cool, dull and sometimes windy middle and a bright but not especially warm end. Temperatures were rather below average while rainfall and sunshine totals were only slightly below normal. The month, neither notably good nor bad, ended in the lowest quartile of Augusts in terms of warmth, rain and sun since data collection started here in 1984. Landmarks Highest August wind gust and windiest August day (22nd) since installation of anemometer in 2004. 5th "worst" August for warmth/rain/sun since data collection started using the "Manchester Summer Index" method of comparison Year --- Index 1986: 196.77 1992: 209.02 2006: 212.53 1987: 220.24 2007: 227.85 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly Mean: 16.3 ºC Average max: 21.2 ºC ( 1.3C BELOW average ) Average min: 12.3 ºC ( 0.6C BELOW average ) Highest max: 28.9 ºC ( 5th ) Lowest max: 15.6 ºC ( 20th & 23rd ) Lowest min: 9.2 ºC ( 17th ) Highest min: 15.8 ºC ( 15th ) No.of Days with max < 20 ºC: 12 days No.of Days with max >= 25 ºC: 4 days No.of Days with max >= 30 ºC: 0 days Low Wind Chill: 9.2 ºC ( 17th ) Low THW Heat Index: 9.2 ºC ( 17th ) High THW Heat Index: 28.7 ºC ( 5th ) High THSW Sun Index: 34.9 ºC ( 5th ) Lowest RH%: 30 % ( 10th ) Lowest Dewpoint: 3.7 ºC ( 8th ) Highest Dewpoint: 16.9 ºC ( 14th ) Rain total: 43.6 mm ( 84% of Average ) Wettest day: 16.8 mm ( 14th ) Rain Days ( measurable ): 11 days Rain Days ( >= 1.0mm ): 8 days High Rain Rate: 22.6 mm/hr ( 7th ) Days with Thunder 1 days ( 7th ) EvapoTranspiration Total: 73.4 mm Wind Speed Average: 1.7 mph Wind Speed high gust: 28 mph ( 15th ) Wind Dominant Direction: SSW ( 34% ) followed by N, NNW, W Mean Barometer: 1014.7 hPa Low Barometer: 995 hPa ( 14th ) High Barometer: 1028.6 hPa ( 25th ) High Solar Radiation 1065 w/m2 ( 6th) Sunshine Hours 131.9 Hours ** Sunniest Day: 10.0 Hours ( 4th ) calculated with limited sensor exposure, estimate 14hrs actual daily total ** calculated with limited sensor exposure, estimate 190 hrs actual monthly total ( BELOW average ) * average at this site 1984 - 2006 Full daily details & stats here: http://www.tonbridge-weather.org.uk/2007/aug2007.htm