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Everything posted by mulzy
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
mulzy replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
mulzy replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like a normal warm core low to me. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
mulzy replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Glad the NAVGEM is on board! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
mulzy replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All in FI but one of the things we need to watch is how far south the low heights to the north/northeast get. There also seems to be a tendency for the low heights to move westward in the day 7-10 period. This results in higher heights being scooped up from the south. One to watch - we still have a very long way to go and many hurdles to cross. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM det - at least it will be dry! That’s the best I could come up with! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The real worry is the EPS in the day 8-12 day range. Let's hope for better this evening but the trend is currently not good. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What’s the NAVGEM (aka the Gold Standard) saying? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
FWIW, the GEFS 0z set is very decent in the extended timeframe. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One cluster probably means way too many solutions to consider. It's all up in the air post day-10. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's just one of the many possibilities on offer for the 11-14 day period. Way too far to take seriously at this stage. Get it within the 5-day range and I'll take notice - especially the 18z from last night. Dream synoptics for the south. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If we can’t have snow, let high pressure rule the roost. Rain can wait till Autumn.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Or just the GFS doing a random tease? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Extended eps are very underwhelming. Let's hope for better in this evening's run. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, some variance on the 850s but looks broadly similar from a synoptic point of view. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All models are wrong; some are more wrong than others - that's the issue. The verification stats do not lie and the GFS is an inferior model to say the ECM - it's as clear as day. GFS has a disproportionately high amount of air-time on this thread. Not saying we should ignore it, but let's keep a balance. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can be consistently wrong of course. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like we'll be back to chasing cold in deep FI again today. As I said yesterday, once the UKMO-GM puts a spanner in the works, it is generally game over. It has happened so often over the years. -
February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
mulzy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
4.0C and 40mm please -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wish it was the other way round - UKMO being great and GFS showing crud. UKMO output has put a spanner into many a potential cold spell. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exeter blinking a little by the looks of it. “…there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers.” -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
mulzy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If we can’t get snow then this is good enough. Who wants wind and rain? -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
mulzy replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, ECM day 10 quite amplified. Maybe, just maybe something is afoot. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
mulzy replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I reckon we will not see any interesting trop developments (viz. strat) till mid February at the earliest. Hoping it can be quicker but +NAO in the extended eps is not really a surprise. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
mulzy replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
mulzy replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can we trust the GEFS though? The GEPS nowhere near as good - at lot more emphasis on low heights in the mid Atlantic.