mulzy
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Everything posted by mulzy
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Blatant cherry picking from the GEFS, but we could be inline for such charts during late January / early February...
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Definite upgrade on the eps even in the extended range. Lower heights to our SE and SW and higher than normal heights to our north. The clusters will make for interesting viewing.
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As expected from the ECM London temperature ensembles, nothing much to look forward to from the westerly 'blast'. As I have been pointing out the interest comes in the day 7-10 period for most of lowland Southern Britain.
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The GEM much faster to bring energy in from the Atlantic at day 10 (akin to this morning's ECMWF). Is the GFS being too slow I wonder? This evening's ECM will be interesting...
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Locations over 200m (300m probably a safer bet) and you're in with a chance of lying snow.
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I can guarantee the actual snow depth chart will look nothing like that at day 8! I feel like I am the new @CreweCold!!!
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It all goes crazy after day 10 - ignore for now. Lots of interest in the day 7-10 period for me...
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Indeed Nick - that's where my interest lies. Day 9 chart not without interest.
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Snowcharts = chocolate fireguard When will people learn?
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Remember, the GFS has a known bias of overplaying the 850s. Just be careful not to get sucked in...
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Anomaly charts are fine - it’s just the interpretation that’s often in error.
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Pretty much spot on. The parameters are just on the wrong side of marginal for lying snow. Upland Northern parts may do well snow-wise. The real interest is what happens after the trough sinks into Europe - though I am not holding my breath. We probably need to exhibit some patience - the Strat and MJO will come to our aid. First 2 weeks of February folks - that’s when it’s going to happen.
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Not so sure, think with the Azores High lurking with intent, we need to look west again after 10 days. If we can take the Azores High out of the equation then there is some potential...
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18z a decent run in the medium range. It gets interesting at day 10 but then the winter killer puts a stop to any further fun. Still lots to be resolved...
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Yep the 'winter killer' looking to spoil things after day 10. Pretty good continuity from this morning's ECM. Overall assessment is again rather underwhelming.
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The GFS has an 850 HPa bias where it too aggressive (as opposed to the GEM where it is too conservative).
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@johnholmes produced a superb guide on "will it snow" - would be good to link it here.
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The uppers even at -6/-7 on a westerly flow are VERY marginal. Elevation is the key for lying snow - 200m+ is most likely needed for lying snow in my honest opinion. Scottish mountains will do very well as ever in this kind of set-up.
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For an Atlantic modified flow, that is rain for the vast majority I am afraid.
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Not really - the only way folk in the South can have any meaningful and lying snow is for runners to run across the base of any dominant trough and even then a hell of a lot of luck is needed.
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The Easterly is not gong to happen and though the outlook is not likely to be mild, there will be little wintry weather in the offing as exemplified by tonight's ECM (a largely westerly flow once the Atlantic breaks through). In short, the underwhelming output continues. Once again, we are looking at more medium term signals such as the Stratosphere to save this winter.
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Lowish heights over mainland Europe?
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Maybe it's a bit of IMBYism on my part, but I find the output, though interesting from a synoptic point of view, very underwhelming in terms of delivery. Maybe it's just me...
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Similar to the op to day 10 then little channel runner by day 11 and then main trough digs into Europe with Scandi high forming - all academic of course...
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No support from the mean - clusters may reveal more later. Probably a rogue run from the control - it's day 15 and JFF.
