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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    Pretty decent mean from the ECM suite at day 10.
  2. mulzy
    GEM and ECM det runs are decent right out at days 9-10. A big worry is the poor UKMO run (at day 7). Still, a lot to be resolved. Hoping for a great eps set this morning.
  3. mulzy
    Indeed. UKMO day 6 close to a good chart. Close but no cigar I reckon.
  4. mulzy
    So much time is spent with the GFS and GEFS. I weep…
  5. mulzy
    Yes, it's decent. Just need to watch the heights to the south (don't shoot me!)
  6. mulzy
    Interesting but way too far out to take seriously. The medium-term broadscale pattern from the ensemble suites suggests an atlanctic ridge days 10-12. Let's see how that evolves.
  7. mulzy
    Merry Xmas all. The UKMO is the most interesting evolution in the medium term. Less influence of the AH and seemingly more trough disruption. ECMWF det not interested in this type of evolution. One to watch...
  8. mulzy
    Outer reaches of GEFS continue to impress...
  9. mulzy
    FWIW, outer reaches of GEFS continues to improve.
  10. mulzy
    Outer reaches of the GEFS but this is where we want NWP to follow:
  11. mulzy
    No point trying to sugar coat the NWP - it’s poor. We really are dependent on medium range drivers - SSW, MJO etc. to deliver the wintry goods. The big elephant in the room is AGW.
  12. mulzy
    Nothing in the more reliable NWP to get excited about. December 2023 is likely to outturn a milder than average month after starting so cold.
  13. mulzy
    Not a great chart. 8C and gales in not nice.
  14. mulzy
    Yes, the ECM det is poor - let’s see where it sits within its ensemble suite. This is going to be a slow burner I feel.
  15. mulzy
    Interesting weeks 5 and 6 on today’s ECMWF sub seasonal. Let’s see if this the start of a trend.
  16. mulzy
    4.2C and 90mm please
  17. mulzy
    Yes as ever, the Azores High is a significant player during our winters. Let’s hope is stays well away. A new worry is rainfall totals - could be some big totals piling up as the lows meet that huge High to the east. Mild, very wet and windy in the medium term but then who knows?
  18. mulzy
    It depends. Uppers of +3 can give freezing temperatures via an inversion and uppers of -12, especially in early Spring may not result in sub-zero temperatures at the surface.
  19. mulzy
    Slightly disappointing output this morning. There is no deep freeze imminent (was this even ever on the cards?). Chilly for sure but any snow is likely to be over high ground. NWP also suggests weakening heights over Greenland and more mobility in the outer reaches.
  20. mulzy
    Unlikely - uppers too high and too much mixing of the air. Cold rain and 5C
  21. mulzy
    Nah, cold rain. Sleety snow for high ground though...
  22. mulzy
    It’s gone tits up because someone broke ranks! Own up whoever it is…
  23. mulzy
    The lows to the southwest are troublesome - whether they make progress inland is up for grabs - high risk, high reward. Snow chances are there but also a chance that the cold air could be mixed out.
  24. mulzy
    The dreaded shortwave!
  25. mulzy
    The UKMO-GM is a very good model. It is consistently better (if the verification stats are to be believed) than the GFS. It is the first model I check.
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