-
Posts
2,066 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by mulzy
-
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEM and ECM det runs are decent right out at days 9-10. A big worry is the poor UKMO run (at day 7). Still, a lot to be resolved. Hoping for a great eps set this morning. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed. UKMO day 6 close to a good chart. Close but no cigar I reckon. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So much time is spent with the GFS and GEFS. I weep… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, it's decent. Just need to watch the heights to the south (don't shoot me!) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting but way too far out to take seriously. The medium-term broadscale pattern from the ensemble suites suggests an atlanctic ridge days 10-12. Let's see how that evolves. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Merry Xmas all. The UKMO is the most interesting evolution in the medium term. Less influence of the AH and seemingly more trough disruption. ECMWF det not interested in this type of evolution. One to watch... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No point trying to sugar coat the NWP - it’s poor. We really are dependent on medium range drivers - SSW, MJO etc. to deliver the wintry goods. The big elephant in the room is AGW. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nothing in the more reliable NWP to get excited about. December 2023 is likely to outturn a milder than average month after starting so cold. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not a great chart. 8C and gales in not nice. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, the ECM det is poor - let’s see where it sits within its ensemble suite. This is going to be a slow burner I feel. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting weeks 5 and 6 on today’s ECMWF sub seasonal. Let’s see if this the start of a trend. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes as ever, the Azores High is a significant player during our winters. Let’s hope is stays well away. A new worry is rainfall totals - could be some big totals piling up as the lows meet that huge High to the east. Mild, very wet and windy in the medium term but then who knows? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mulzy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It depends. Uppers of +3 can give freezing temperatures via an inversion and uppers of -12, especially in early Spring may not result in sub-zero temperatures at the surface. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Slightly disappointing output this morning. There is no deep freeze imminent (was this even ever on the cards?). Chilly for sure but any snow is likely to be over high ground. NWP also suggests weakening heights over Greenland and more mobility in the outer reaches. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unlikely - uppers too high and too much mixing of the air. Cold rain and 5C -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nah, cold rain. Sleety snow for high ground though... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s gone tits up because someone broke ranks! Own up whoever it is… -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The lows to the southwest are troublesome - whether they make progress inland is up for grabs - high risk, high reward. Snow chances are there but also a chance that the cold air could be mixed out. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The dreaded shortwave! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
mulzy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The UKMO-GM is a very good model. It is consistently better (if the verification stats are to be believed) than the GFS. It is the first model I check.