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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. Maybe just maybe hints of Atlantic amplification at the outer range of the EPS. Let’s see if this follows through on this evening’s suite.
  2. Looks like a fairly northerly trajectory on the 6z models and a fairly rounded structure too. Nothing doing for 99% of us. Time to put this winter to bed and start looking at the 9 month CFS for clues about next winter.
  3. Winter is over buddy - ext EPS suggest some Springlike warmth.
  4. If GEFS are right, it’s Game Over for winter. Very good support from recent EPS suites too!
  5. Yes, looking like that. A big win for the seasonal models! I believe December 19 CET came in at 5.8C. Ext EPS same old ugly story - strong Euro heights and low heights to the north west.
  6. That’s Atlantic air. If we’re getting excited about -6 Atlantic uppers, then we really have hit a new low. Nothing doing for 90% of the population.
  7. Poor output continues. We may have to chuck in the towel for February even at this early stage as the ext EPS continue their horrific indications. The ECM det is more in line with ensemble guidance so the hints of Atlantic amplification were always a long shot.
  8. Guess what the ext EPS shows? Yes, strong Euro heights centred over France and the usual low heights to our north west. Nothing doing from this suite!
  9. Wrong season buddy - we need that setup in winter not summer!
  10. Ext EPS - Goodnight Charlie! Strong Euro heights with low heights to the south of Greenland! Very, very ugly!
  11. The poor winter output continues. Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment. Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo. Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!
  12. Modelling of the jet is always overplayed (i.e. modelled too far south) in these set-ups. The ext EPS is horrific. Very low heights in the Greenland locale along with significant Euro heights. Pattern incredibly strong for a day 15 mean. First half of Feb is a write off (quite likely all of Feb).
  13. Ext EPS paints a similar story. Very positive AO / NAO.
  14. Lots of free data - that’s why! Even though it’s not the greatest NWP model.
  15. ECM still showing decent mid Atlantic amplification in the medium range! Not a done deal yet as most other models have backed off but reassuring that the gold standard not budging.
  16. Yes, disappointing ECM. Has been signposted by the EPS - the pattern quickly flattening out.
  17. Very tentative signs in the ext EPS of the higher heights going to the north of the UK and heights over Europe edging lower though still quite high. On its own, nothing special but in comparison to what we have seen before, a significant improvement.
  18. Ext EPS continues to show benign calm conditions with a displaced Azores High over Southern France / Spain. What happens next - can the heights migrate further north?
  19. Just for fun, perturbation 8 of the 12z GEFS is rather interesting In deep FI. Channel low after channel low!
  20. The Ext EPS still rather disappointing with Euro heights dominating - though possibly nudging a bit further north. Hopefully that northward extension continues in the next few suites.
  21. It’s got Euro high stamped all over it. Could be a very pleasant Spring. Something to look forward to!
  22. They go out to 15 days and even at that range there is a strong signal for low heights to the north / northwest
  23. Extended EPS continue to show Euro heights and low heights over Greenland. Back to square one! We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter. The seasonal dynamic models might have have actually nailed this winter.
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