mulzy

9.2C and 97mm

Metwatch This is probably better for monthly / season composites, though it's essentially the same! Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory PSL.NOAA.GOV US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory

Mike Poole my tea leaves suggested a mild February The EC46 was always ropey and it showed this year. The one driver I normally pay attention was the Strat and somehow (bad luck) it just didn’t deliver. MJO composites and GDSM are below tea leaves in my pecking order so no surprise it was a massive bust for these flakey predictive tools.

7.2C and 77mm please.

TEITS This is the winter we can say the only background signal of note is AGW. Everything else is akin to reading tea leaves.

Has anyone got the years of the 10 mildest winters in the CET series? Are we in danger of 23/24 joining that list?

EPS day 10 mean. Oh dear - pretty flat. We are now looking outside the 10 day range for anything cold, potentially 15+ days. Hope the SSW can help us out but as for now looking pretty bleak.

jules216 Does AGW make using analogues unreliable as the base state is always moving?

Oh dear, folk are being ultra-defensive. @Nick F’s post was spot on in my opinion. Undoubtedly, the Strat is a key parameter, and our understanding though far from perfect is much better than a decade ago. Maybe our understanding of GDSM, AAM, MJO etc. is not mature enough to make them useful in forecasting yet. In time, these tools may become useful. However, the biggest background driver is AGW and until that is fully understood (except the fact that it will be warmer) then all bets are off. A winter that was ramped up so much but will probably end up as one the mildest winters ever recorded in London!

The fat lady just about to get on stage. The SSW is our last hope to save this dreadful winter. Nothing to show in the EPS - probably not in range yet.

E17boy MetO have backtracked. The wording is not as bullish as in previous updates. Ties in with the medium-range modelling.

raz.org.rain But it is the start of the widely expected backtrack. Agree with you that cold snowy conditions are a very outside bet now. As others have indicated, the one thing I have seen in the modeling is lower heights being progged at our latitude which ties in with the extended part of the MO forecast. Northern parts of the UK are probably in pole position to get any colder conditions.

MJB It's the 7th of Feb today so strictly there are still 22 days of 'winter' left. However, everything is trending in the wrong direction for any kind of 'late' show. As for March, no thanks - let's have some sunshine to top up our depleted vitamin D levels. Things may change if 'winter' does deliver this month, but this winter has been dreadful simply because of the hype and expectations. I am used to snowless winters in London as this has become the 'norm', but the ramping (and not just from amateurs like me) has been stratospheric (forgive the pun) this year. AGW is a massive spanner in any 'winter' works - something we all need to mull over.

Drifter Cold drizzle - 850s not low enough.

FWIW, the ECM run tonight is a stinker. I hope it's a crazy outlier.

That ECM I think @northwestsnow is probably referring to the push of more marked higher heights to the north and northwest on the 12z EPS. Synptically it looks better than this morning.

GEFS and GEPS day 16 Well advertised by EC46 - let's see if it comes to fruition.

Lukesluckybunch Yes, no wedge at day 6 so day 7 is not a surprise. Lots of twists and turns to come - a week in an eternity in NWP!

4.4C and 60 mm please

@Tim Bland Let's hope the precipitation doesn't go into northern France like last time!

Very poor outlook - models have backtracked from showing any early push of cold - any cold is now day 10+. The MetOffice long ranger gives us hope for something in the second half of February which is still out range of the NWP.

No real change - nothing cold in the NWP currently. The EPS has gone backwards sadly. Hope and the outer reaches of the MetOffice forecast are keeping us just about in the game. But the clock is ticking and the medium term story could be record breaking warmth / mildness to bring in February.

The 6z GFS has a few snow events for central and northern regions in FI - just for fun of course!

On the plus side, vortex is less organised.

Yes, could this be the final nail this winter? Let's hold out hope for something in mid-February but that is looking rather unlikely now. A winter that promised much but delivered little (is that the same every year though?)