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  1. Absolutely crazy that an ensemble mean can be as low as -14 way out at day 6.
  2. Definite shift to the south in the eps but not as marked as the Det shift. Extended eps similar to this morning - strong retrogression signal with cold UK 850s.
  3. Of course it can still go wrong, but the chance of brutal cold hitting in the 6-9 day period is now better than evens. We have all been burnt many times before and have the scars to show for it so I am still nervy. So, please no popping of champagne corks yet!
  4. Let me clarify as a member of the Netweather family liaison committee, no member is to tell any family member until 48 hours (2 days) before the brutal cold hits. If in any doubt please contact the committee for further guidance.
  5. Extended EPS - similar theme of the high heights retrogressing to Greenland (and beyond). 850s over the UK remaining cold.
  6. ECM 0z run - BANK!!!! ECM 240 chart - What.A.Chart - the best we have seen in this insane period of model watching!
  7. I mentioned this earlier - it could just be a one suite blip. If this evening’s ECM suite is similar then that is a concern for coldies. We really need the cold to start appearing within the 6 day timeline. Day 10 eye candy charts are great to look at but we all know they are unlikely to verify as is.
  8. A little bit of balance please. Just looking at the ECM Det and it's ensembles, things have downgraded as the below shows: 12z yesterday 0z today However, on a positive note, the UKMO is now good at day 6. So swings and roundabouts as ever.
  9. ECM a downgrade on yesterday evening’s run - we have lost the cold uppers at day 6. Still should be ok from day 6.
  10. Another cracking run from the ECM. If you think days 5-9 are decent, goodness knows what you will think of days 10 and beyond. Brutal cold locked in!!
  11. For those who said things will get resolved tonight, think again. Still big differences at day 5. UKMO is a big worry...
  12. Block as depicted by the eps mean just about holding on from days 6-9. Lower heights to the west encroaching - there will be some milder runs at this stage. Clusters will reveal more later.