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  1. Indeed NWS. To me, nothing much has changed - blocked and cold for the foreseeable.
  2. The GFS has *moved* towards the ECMWF. The cold-pool shortwave is progged to come in quicker and at a slightly more northerly trajectory. This makes a big difference in the medium term. However, the end destination is still cold and blocked. To be honest, I prefer a slow burner!
  3. Extended EPS broadly similar to this morning's set. To coin a phrase "nothing has changed". Cold and blocked sums it up!
  4. The key is the progression between day 4 and day 6 - could the ECM be very progressive with the cold pool?
  5. Remember the old adage when it comes to getting cold/snow in the UK. "If it can go wrong, it will" Desperate bad luck with that phasing - let's hope it's an outlier solution.
  6. Day 10 means: EPS GEFS The GEFS has a stronger retrogression signal *but* the EPS seems to have moved towards it.
  7. Folks, it's 13th November - we are still more than 2 weeks away from winter proper. The extended eps (mean) is indicating a Sceuro high scenario with only weak lowish heights to the west - the clusters will reveal more shortly. It looks largely blocked and cold for the foreseeable. Very good set-up leading into winter.
  8. These shower trains are now a real pain! Thunderstorm here now (3 CGs).
  9. Almost certainly it will head north / north east - if it continues to deepen, could help pump the ridge northwards. All rather pointless speculation at this range anyway.
  10. GFS 6z very progressive - compare the operational with the parallel (FV3) at day 9!
  11. In my opinion, this morning's EPS are significantly better than last night's. The orientation of the Atlantic trough *hints* at undercutting is allied with the block being at a slightly higher latitude. Sceuro block then sinker is definitely one of the options on the table but there are other options too.
  12. Extended EPS (the mean) not quite as good as this morning's set. Scandi heights still shown but less of a retrograde signal. Clusters will reveal all shortly...