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    Raynes Park, London SW20

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  1. The 6z GEFS are already a significant improvement up to day 7. After the downs of yesterday, today is looking much better so far!
  2. For a greater chance of snow, the front needs to slow down, it's whizzing through far too fast not allowing for the warmer uppers to be mixed out. At the moment, very little lying snow from that (except in favoured upland parts).
  3. 6z more progressive in line with some of the better models. Next window of opportunity from day 8, Of course, there may be wintry surprises this week but nothing disruptive.
  4. It's still a pretty good chart. As you said, it would be better for the low heights to be centred over Italy rather than the Bay of Biscay.
  5. Guess what folks? Ext EPS solid as ever and if anything trending colder! (Some may cry "jam tomorrow" but the medium range outlook looks tasty).
  6. FWIW, the ECM 6z (which runs only to 90 hours) is very close to the ECM 0z. Maybe a tad slower in clearing the lower heights south out of the UK. 500 Mb anomalies shown below (0z then 6z)
  7. Even this 6z run has a band of snow passing through next Sunday - just for fun of course but it's not all lost!
  8. Yes, the trend is not what we want to see but it's far from "game over". We need to wait for tonights' 12z runs to see if the trend is maintained or reversed. Even the 6z GFS is close to being a really good run.
  9. FWIW, the ext EPS (days 12-15) rock solid with a cold pattern. Very low heights over Europe with heights rising to the north-west as advertised by the EC46 many times.
  10. The EPS in the medium term (days 6-8) definitely trending backwards. Looks a lot more troughy around the UK allied with losing any tenuous heights to the north. Not great sadly but it's just one suite.
  11. Reasonable support for the ECM det from the EPS at day 5 However the spreads could be quite high even at this range. Still all to play for. Things are trending backwards but it's far from "game over".
  12. It’s not quite as good as the channel of lower heights to the north west isn’t cut off earlier like the 0z suite, but it does get there. Just looks slower to me. I am expecting another decent EPS suite.
  13. Precipitation charts are largely useless at that range. You should be concentrating on the overall pattern - focus on precipitation within 72 hours.