Oh dear, folk are being ultra-defensive. @Nick F’s post was spot on in my opinion. Undoubtedly, the Strat is a key parameter, and our understanding though far from perfect is much better than a decade ago. Maybe our understanding of GDSM, AAM, MJO etc. is not mature enough to make them useful in forecasting yet. In time, these tools may become useful. However, the biggest background driver is AGW and until that is fully understood (except the fact that it will be warmer) then all bets are off.
A winter that was ramped up so much but will probably end up as one the mildest winters ever recorded in London!