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    Raynes Park, London SW20

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  1. The Ext EPS still rather disappointing with Euro heights dominating - though possibly nudging a bit further north. Hopefully that northward extension continues in the next few suites.
  2. It’s got Euro high stamped all over it. Could be a very pleasant Spring. Something to look forward to!
  3. They go out to 15 days and even at that range there is a strong signal for low heights to the north / northwest
  4. Extended EPS continue to show Euro heights and low heights over Greenland. Back to square one! We desperately need something to change the overall pattern or else a mid latitude high is going to be as good as it gets this winter. The seasonal dynamic models might have have actually nailed this winter.
  5. Ext EPS - fairly flat I am afraid. No sign of any amplification at all. Euro / Bartlett High type set-up.
  6. Medium term modelling suggesting a mean pattern of the dreaded Euro High (Ext EPS). Can this transition to higher latitude blocking is the question that needs to be answered? No point sugar coating this but this morning’s NWP is another step backwards. The one positive is that January is likely as to be much drier than December.
  7. Happy new year folks. The models are horrific for now as exemplified by the ext EPS which continues to show higher heights over Europe and the low heights continuing to our north west. It’s a waiting game I’m afraid - still way too early to write winter off. Keep the faith folks!
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