Frosty.

The GEFS 12z mean is again looking superb between early and mid June, more than likely through late June too. Becoming warm with a good deal of sunshine everywhere and very warm in the south, mid 20's celsius is realistic across the south from later next week onwards. Like I said before, the south has a good chance of gradually tapping into very warm and humid continental conditions if our anticyclone migrates to the east / north east or north of the UK. A major pattern change is now less than a week away.

The Gfs 12z shows high pressure taking control from mid / late next week until the end of the run, becoming warm with plenty of sunshine and the highest temperatures in the south. I think there is lots of potential for very warm and humid continental conditions eventually pushing up into the south of the UK as the met office have mentioned again today.

Good things are worth waiting for and the latest GEFS 6z mean shows a fantastic extended outlook with the cool unsettled weather finally banished by mid / late next week onwards and the south of the UK is the first to become warm and settled by midweek. The MO update is the best yet, really it's a win win situation for most of June, either becoming settled and staying settled and warm or very warm or becoming settled and then turning hot and humid with a risk of T-Storms. I think the south of the UK will see temperatures into the 80's F as time goes on.

Not long to wait now guys, the Gfs 00z shows warm and settled weather for southern UK by day 6 with temps around 68-70F, and nearer 75-77F (24-25c) later next week. It takes a little longer for the north to become settled and warmer. Through low res (post T+192 hours) high pressure keeps building in from the Azores. We are on track for a BIG pattern change to settled and warm/very warm conditions.

This evenings Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the south becoming settled by the middle of next week and then the fine, dry and warmer weather spreads north to the rest of the UK before the end of next week. This is also what the met office have been saying and it's showing on all the models, it's looking good

The GEFS 12z mean will please many on here I'm sure since it shows a warm settled extended outlook with the Azores high building a strong ridge across the UK and temperatures rising into the low 20's celsius for most of the UK and nearer mid 20's c for the south/southeast. There has not been any sign of downgrades from the mean in recent days, it continues to show solid support for a welcome pattern change and I expect that to continue..just a week to go before it begins.

Not long to wait now, the Gfs 12z shows next Wednesday is the transition day from dross to good weather, high pressure rules throughout FI with lots of dry, fine and warm weather. I will be pleased for all those in the northwest of the UK who have had a largely dire spring, very good times ahead of us.

Hope it stays fine for you, yes you're right, timings will change, hopefully it will delay until evening as the 6z shows.

The GEFS 6z mean shows a big change to warmer anticyclonic weather through early to mid June, no downgrades to the settled extended outlook, the turning point is the middle of next week with the south of England being the first to become fine and warm as high pressure develops, the north of the UK turns fine and warm by the end of next week and then it's a nationwide fine and warm/very warm spell. The latest MO update has not changed either, still on course for a widespread summery spell beyond T+168/192 hours.

The Gfs 6z shows a window of fine weather on Sunday afternoon in southern england with the main band of rain arriving from the west early evening, the met office said becoming wet and windy on Sunday and clearing up during the evening. Hope that helps for now

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows strong support for the Azores high to build in and settle our weather down and gradually warm our weather up, as far as I can see it's all systems go for a warmer anticyclonic outlook from later next week onwards, summery weather is on the way.

The GEFS 12z mean shows an end to the rather cool unsettled wly/nwly dross which has made this spring in the northwest of the UK very miserable. The charts below are just what the doctor ordered, a nationwide increasingly warm and anticyclonic further outlook coinciding with the start of summer. I hope this is just the beginning of a summer to remember for all the right reasons.

The models so far today are all showing a big change to warmer and settled conditions spreading from the south during the second half of next week onwards, this is now reinforced by another very encouraging met office update which continues to firm up on a warm anticyclonic outlook and also very warm and humid at times, especially in the south with a chance of thundery outbreaks pushing up from the continent.

The GFS 6z really hots up and becomes very humid during FI with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F as we import continental conditions into the UK with an airmass sourced from north Africa / Spain, there is a thundery breakdown and then the Azores high looks like it would start to build in again. The signs are increasingly good for a nationwide spell of warmth and high pressure from mid / late next week onwards.

The GEFS 00z mean looks superb between early and mid June with high pressure domination and temperatures soaring into the low to mid 20's celsius. The northwest of the UK has had a poor spring compared to the south and east but from the second half of next week onwards it looks like a nationwide warmer and settled spell which is great news for the majority of us on here.

The Ecm 00z shows the transition from unsettled to settled taking place during the middle of next week with high pressure building in. I think we are all in for a very summery spell beyond T+168 hours.

The GFS 00z shows high pressure building in next week and becoming centred to the east of the UK for a time which enables very warm and humid air from the continent to drift north, temperatures widely into the low to mid 20's celsius. There is also a risk of thundery rain / showers pushing up from the south during low res...anyway, I'm just very pleased to see a surge of warmth and high pressure next week.

The Ecm 12z shows the change most of us are waiting for in just over a weeks time, the south is the first to improve and then gradually the fine and warmer weather starts to push north, the south of England would be heading for low to mid 20's celsius later next week.. so the pattern change is now within the ecm range. Let's hope we are on course for a complete change from relentless cool / unsettled Atlantic dross to much Warmer anticyclonic bliss.

The GEFS 12z mean turns into a BEAUTY with the Azores high building in and high pressure strengthens its grip, becoming warm / very warm and settled with lots of sunshine between early / mid june..Bring it on!

Much nicer Gfs 12z through low res with high pressure taking control, I firmly believe a major pattern change is not far away. The met office update continues to firm up on a change to warm anticyclonic conditions through early / mid June and the chance of the south becoming very warm and humid as continental air wafts north. I have high hopes that most of June will bring above average temperatures and sunshine.

It's right to be cautious Gavin, especially if it was only the gefs mean showing a trend to settled I would be sceptical but we have the experts saying it too. I'm confident we are going to see a marked change to very summery weather within the next two weeks.

Fantastic GEFS 12z mean this evening, the best indicator so far which points to an increasingly anticyclonic and warmer spell through early / mid June and potentially beyond that, the PFJ gets pushed way, way north into the arctic circle. This year, we really could be in for FLAMING June.

Signs of summery weather in early june continue to grow, the Gfs 12z in low res is heading in the right direction, however, it's the latest met office outlook for June which made me happy, it sounds like high pressure and increasing warmth is on the way and eventually the south could have very warm / humid continental weather with thundery outbreaks and hot sunshine, what a fantastic early summer that would be.

The GEFS 12z mean is looking much more settled and warmer with high pressure becoming increasingly influential through early June with temperatures widely into the 20's celsius. As for the reliable timeframe, it's the northwest of the UK which will bear the brunt of the unsettled and cool weather with the bulk of the rain and strong winds whereas the south and east will have the best of the fine and pleasantly warm spells. I'm pleased to see the met office are still indicating high pressure and warmth as we go further into June.

He was responding to the lovely charts I posted showing a warmer and settled early June from the Gefs 12z mean, hope that clears up your confusion.