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Jon Snow

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About Jon Snow

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    I come in peace

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    Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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    Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)

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  1. I think it’s fair to say that settled / anticyclonic charts are becoming harder to find (at the moment) but it’s much easier to at least find some warm, perhaps very warm SE’ly winds during early October...however, with strong heights to the east, North Atlantic lows tend to become stuck over and around the u k with nowhere else to go and are then reinforced by further lows so I would say that apart from an increasingly fine but cool weekend as a ridge builds in from the west, next week gradually becomes more unsettled again...but early October could see above average temperatures, especially across the s / se.
  2. It does look like an increasingly fine weekend to come, especially by Sunday but certainly on the cool side with a risk of overnight ground frosts in rural areas, particularly further north..but looking into low res, things could become very interesting to say the least, indeed the cfs shows some insane / brutal cold at times during the months ahead..just for fun at this stage though but at least I’m trying to bring a bit of interest back to the model output discussion since it’s been dead as a dodo today!
  3. Indeed Zak..and this from earlier (GEFS 6z) was spectacular to!!..Indian summer? cherries included!
  4. Please forgive my shameless cherry picking from the GEFS 0z ..I haven’t fully gone across to the dark side..I mean cold side of the force just yet..cough ..not until the chance of summery warmth is over!..anyway, there’s some lovely eye candy here for those of us who like autumn warmth!!!?
  5. Looking at the GEFS 12z, according to the mean it trends more benign in early October and looking through the 12z members there’s support for unseasonable warmth too..I did mention something similar regarding the 6z GEFS..if anything, the support here is even stronger!...October BBQ anyone?
  6. Looking at the GEFS 6z further into early October there are hints that high pressure could build in and settle things down..and whisper it but there are also hints of an Indian summer with a long draw southerly and temps well into the 20’s c.
  7. Looking a bit further ahead, the ECM 0z ensemble mean indicates a zonal north / south split, tending to be most unsettled further n / nw and somewhat less unsettled further s / se.
  8. There’s been some talk about an unseasonably cold early October in good old Blighty!..well, nobody told the GEFS 12z mean..it looks around average to me, even pleasantly warm further s / se, especially in any sunshine!
  9. Well I gotta say the ECM 0z ensemble mean seems to have toned down the unsettled outlook somewhat from recent apocalyptic proportions on some output..sure it’s going to become more unsettled and cooler, that’s obvious!..but it probably won’t be as bad as some feared..in other words, fairly typical autumn conditions? ps..I couldn’t care less about clocks going forward..etc..stick to model output discussion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  10. Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean indicates a preety unsettled outlook too me, very similar to the op in many respects, what I would say is longer term there’s something of a north / south split in the zonal flow with the north more unsettled than the south but changeable at best, which is by definition, unsettled...so, quite an autumnal spell and rather cold for a time later next week when there is also perhaps a brief interval of quieter weather and I should mention that across Scotland some wintry ness to higher mountains for a time but then temperatures recovering closer to average as winds come in more from the Atlantic sector.
  11. The ECM 12z operational looks pretty unsettled too me following a settled start, there is a bit of temporary respite / ridging for a time towards the end of next week but it soon becomes unsettled again, it doesn’t look terribly cold though but certainly an autumnal feel.
  12. Very impressive Zak, much more impressive than me during my first year, indeed first several years ( I was pretty rubbish to be honest..some think I still am!.. anyway.. I’m still learning / evolving too (late bloomer)..moving swiftly on, the Gfs 6z op does show some improvement in its later stages, at least across the south but certainly a big change coming for the second half of next week compared to what we’ve seen so far this autumn..it will certainly feel like autumn!
  13. It’s not so easy to find a bright side having viewed the 0z output but here goes...the GEFS 0z mean indicates some relaxation in the unsettled conditions eventually, and early October may not be to bad...but certainly next week shows a big pattern change to very unsettled and cooler although the ECM 0z doesn’t become as cold as last nights 12z whereas the GFS 0z op does look colder with a risk of snow for Scottish mountains at times, and perhaps lower levels but it’s a complex set-up and whether or not we do get a northerly with any bite, it will become very unsettled / cyclonic with gales and rain...but also some ridging from time to time giving at least temporary respite.
  14. There’s something of a recovery towards the end of the ECM 12z operational as a ridge of high pressure from the west topples SE across the u k but it may only be temporary respite with another depression poised over Iceland but before that possibility, it becomes very unsettled and gradually much cooler for all, you could even call it cold, especially further north where it could become cold enough for snow on higher hills / mountains..for a time...a real shock to the system is on the way, the first major blast of autumn.
  15. Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, it’s best to make the most of the current benign, pleasant anticyclonic conditions as it looks like we will shortly be plunged into the depths of autumn with a very unsettled and much cooler spell..but, by day 10 there are glimmers of hope as the unsettled conditions gradually relaxes its grip and the Azores ridge begins to nose NE towards the south.
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