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jon snow

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jon snow last won the day on September 19

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    Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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    Meteorology, chemistry, cars, reading, sport, movies, music, gaming
  • Weather Preferences
    Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)

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  1. Maybe I’m wrong but the Gfs 6z operational seems a little less unsettled than the 0z op?..or perhaps that’s just my perception!.. ..anyway, if you like unseasonable warmth, enjoy it, it should last to the end of the weekend further s / se but then it becomes much more autumnal, more seasonal! 🐿
  2. The Gfs 0z operational turns into a generally unsettled (cyclonic) run with spells of rain and strong winds interspersed with sunshine and showers, there are some drier intervals but not to be relied upon, more like suckers ‘ gaps between weather systems…as for temperatures, well, initially well above average across much of southern u k through to the end of the weekend (feeling more like summer at 22 / 23c…perhaps even 24c locally across the SE) but then a marked drop from next Monday following a band of heavy rain and a generally much cooler more autumnal theme persists although there are a few pleasantly warmer days thrown in but nothing like the current warmth!…however, this is only based on this particular run and certainly doesn’t preclude further warm and fine weather coming back at some point beyond this week.
  3. Just been looking at the GEFS 12z mean and to be honest it doesn’t look too bad across southern u k for much of the time, the Azores high predominantly ridges in close to the sw / s with the lower heights mainly to the nw / n with its associated unsettled weather…of course it’s not as straightforward as that but essentially it’s a northwest / southeast or north / south split through to the end of September into early October, this doesn’t mean the more unsettled weather across the northwest wouldn’t occasionally push further southeast but most of the unsettled conditions would be focussed on the nw / n?….anyway, in the meantime there’s still plenty of summer like weather to come further s / se before a squally band of rain pushes from west to east either Sunday night or during Monday with a drop in temperatures.
  4. Yet another last hurrah of summer in early October on the Gfs 12z operational, temperatures are currently running approx 3 / 4c above average for the time of year across southern u k…impressive!
  5. Fortunately, I like unsettled and I like autumn…so it’s a win win for me! 🌧
  6. All in all, the Gfs 0z operational turns into an unsettled and much cooler run although it’s still warm for the time of year further s/e/se right through to the end of this weekend and largely fine ️ with temperatures into the low 20’s c and there are still a few pleasantly warm days further s/se further ahead (upper teens c) but the emphasis is on much cooler more autumnal conditions generally speaking with spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers and not so many drier periods? ️ 🌧
  7. Where did all these posts come from? …anyway, looking at the 0z output, the Atlantic is still floundering and the ECM looks very disrupted to say the least, these are not typical autumn charts!
  8. These are NOT typical autumn charts from the ECMWF 0z operational!…I think there’s a problem with the Gulf Stream!
  9. You would almost think it was high summer looking at these ECMWF 12z operational charts wouldn’t you, ignoring the blue bits of course?… ? ..and that’s all from the Jon snow model output discussion for now…
  10. The GEFS 6z mean is essentially showing a north / south split, best is south, worst is north..but, as with the 0z mean, towards / during early October pressure rises more generally (on balance)..so it could become more widely settled into the new month?
  11. No comments on the Gfs 6z op?..well, ok, it’s not perfect but there is some warmth and even some high pressure, especially later! ….ok, there’s some low pressure and cooler more unsettled weather too! …come on guys, it’s nearly October, what do you expect..??? 🐿
  12. Just had a look at the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean and to me it’s the north / northwest of the u k which would bear the brunt of the unsettled weather during the second half of the week ahead onwards…further s/se doesn’t look too bad at all with probably quite a lot of fine weather in comparison to the n/nw…this is broad brush and doesn’t mean the south / southeast wouldn’t see occasional rain?…just my opinion!
  13. Looking at the GEFS 0z mean, to me it’s a north / south split with most of the unsettled weather across northern parts of the u k whereas the s / se escapes relatively lightly and in any case, longer term the trend is more settled from the south with the north improving too (this is broad brush) but…on balance, early October, especially further south would be more generally settled / benign with overnight mist / fog? 🐿 🌫 ️
  14. The ECM 12z operational is something of a mixed bag, there’s alternating troughs and ridges, temperatures are up and down which I think indicates typical early autumn weather with the autumnal equinox just around the corner!.changeable then?!! .for sure it could be worse..of course, it could be better too? 🐿 ️ 🌧
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