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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s certainly more twists and turns to come until this enters the reliable timeframe!..but for now, these ECM 12z op charts are pleasing.. anything thats not mild these days is.. a victory!… -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECMWF 12z op looks increasingly cold too my untrained eyes ?.. nice cold dam thicknesses there!…hey, I’m used to very mild rubbish, so this looks good.. go figure?.. ! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The mid term GEFS 12z mean still looks pretty good if you’re a coldie?…certainly much better than the usual very mild dross!….but even so, Nov / Dec 2010 was so exceptional and even though some recent output suggests that?.. the pros @ Exeter are refusing / unable to break the shackles and really go for broke!.. but as we all know, the future is uncertain..isn’t it? -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I sincerely hope the ECMWF 12z ensemble mean will build on this from the 0z!!!!.. WOW…we are very close to the tipping point now regarding how things evolve during the crucial period next midweek onwards!!!..and I’m frankly EXCITED!!!!️ -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Frosty. replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
All the emotion in here reminds me of a song! .. life is a rollercoaster just gotta ride it! …anyway, enough small talk!…I’m confident it’s going to gradually turn much colder with an increasing risk of snow! …yes, I’ve just seen the 6z! ️ -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m in wintery weather heaven right now! …yep I am…here’s why! Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean for your viewing pleasure! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s plenty to like about the GEM 12z mean / perturbations..here’s a small sample!… there is an incredible feel good factor about this forum..hope it continues! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My cup runneth over this evening! ..here’s the GEM 12z! ️…coldies deserve this!..the huge amount of mild dross we have to endure, hopefully consigned to the wheelie bin for a good while!!! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey Guys, I want this freeze too last!…small sample below from the GEFS 12z!! ️ -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s good to be officially Frosty again.. phew!!!! …it seems appropriate given the latest ECM 0z op / mean long term projection! …maybe I should be called snowy!?.. time will tell! ️ -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite incredible ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, and only six days henceforth!! ️ …hope I haven’t jinxed it now.. are we heading into..my freezer! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cracking GEFS 12z mean!…and I will settle for P2…no need to look any further than that! ….don’t take the models too seriously, it’s still autumn! 🐿 -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey guys, I’m still on the 6z!.. I haven’t caught up yet! …I don’t want to be called a ramper for ramping these charts up! …Shirley you can see the dilemma I’m in?… this is serious! ️ …anyhoo, even if we don’t get a freeze.. I have a freezer!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I cannae keep up with you guys!…anyhoo, enough with the small talk already!..this is an impressive ECMWF 12z ensemble mean for the start of winter!… hope it develops into something EPIC..it’s been a dismally mild autumn, time for a change innit..!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a really incredible GEFS 12z mean…moyenne! ..and it’s not far away either!… sorry dazza!.. not really!!! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
OMG.. what just happened on here?…. …ah, a new thread! …anyhoo, I quite like the GEFS 6z mean in this timeframe! …am I right in thinking it’s likely to trend colder?…shhh, don’t tell Darren Bett! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I continue to be very happy with the direction of travel from the longer term ECMWF 12z ensemble mean tonight!…the trend is very supportive of an increasingly blocked chilly pattern to evolve!..hopefully into something SPECTACULAR as some of the mid / longer range models / ensembles are showing currently!…it’s great to see the forum so busy..hope it continues for another 4 months at least! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m not a greedy coldie.. …I would very happily settle for any of these GEFS 12z perturbations…especially P30! …isn’t it great that the majority (coldies) on here apparently have something to look forward to.. for a change?! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the ECMWF 12z operational day 10.. all I can say is.. I wanna see days 11 and 12.. and 13!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is ICONIC!.. … there are no other words to describe this..except.. drumroll.. bring it on! …I remember vividly how the icon got it right last December at crimbo time when the other models were saying wintery heaven.. it turned into hell!.. .. the icon nailed it! … hope it’s right this time too!.. honestly, anything that’s NOT mild is good, anything more is a BONUS.. coldies deserve a MASSIVE BONUS following all the mild crud in recent winters!!!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although I didn’t acknowledge Ed’s giant blue rabbit (P14) initially! … I didn’t miss P21!…that’s enough small talk…. I’m ready for the 12z already!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fingers crossed this all works out for the coldies according to the GEFS 6z!!!!!! …anyway, I’ve just bought a new chest freezer..so until the cold arrives I’ll just stick my head in that for my wintery fix! -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Frosty. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The day 10 ECMWF 0z ensemble mean is the best I’ve seen so far in recent days?!…increasingly blocked and colder sums up the mid / longer term outlook I think! …anyone agree?