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Everything posted by JON SNOW

  1. I must admit I got a bit carried away yesterday and the models have again pulled the rug from under me. There is still some cold potential within the GEFS 0z but less so than yesterday and currently there is more chance of a mild or indeed warm late october and start to november..apologies if my excitable comments / tone misled anyone.
  2. It's great to see some snow potential for late october from the GEFS today...as Matt said, there are a few hum dingers among the members!❄...my bad, the snow charts are from the 6z but I don't care about that!! just for balance, there's warm potential too
  3. I'm not so much bothered by what the operational shows, the mean will give a better idea.
  4. Just had a butchers at the GEFS 6z mean and it's certainly suggesting an Arctic shot later next week, this period in question could be very interesting indeed, and that includes to the end of october, I honestly think we could see something like late october 2008 when it snowed, even in london..a white Halloween is possible!!...exciting period of model watching to be sure...I know the models are great at pulling the rug from under us when we make predictions but I have a good feeling from a coldie point of view!!!❄❄❄❄❄
  5. The Ecm 0z ensemble mean certainly indicates an Arctic shot of some description later next week, indeed more so than it did yesterday!
  6. Not a bad looking GEFS 0z mean for those of us hoping for a very early Arctic shot later next week..which includes me!!❄
  7. Just wondering whether to tell my family about the risk of snow later next week on the GEFS 6z?❄...there's certainly some Arctic potential..just waiting for Exeter to jump on board
  8. Indeed, maybe an indian..summer according to the Ecm 0z!
  9. Not sure if anyone has mentioned the Ecm 0z operational T+240 hours..so I will..it's preety good in an indian summer kind of way!
  10. The GEFS 0z mean is certainly very interesting further ahead, portends increasing chances of Polar / Arctic maritime shots!❄
  11. My eyes light up when I see Arctic potential whatever the timeframe..and even more when I see snow appearing on the ensembles..in october!!..here's hoping for a looooong winter with plenty more charts like these..white Halloween anyone?!!!!❄❄❄❄❄❄
  12. Here's a small sample from the GEFS 6z, as you can see, the mid / longer term mean is still suggesting a change to a more benign anticyclonic spell, at least away from the far NW for a time during late october, there is even potential it could stay fine until the end of the month...so, hopefully some welcome respite from the rain / flooding in the not too distant future!
  13. The Gfs 6z operational is trending more settled later this month, firstly from a blocking scandi high / ridge and then a high pressure cell becoming centred over the uk..pleasantly warm surface conditions by day but with some cool nights bringing a risk of mist / fog patches.
  14. The GEFS 0z mean still indicates a more benign pleasantly warm signal for late october with height rises to the east, by no means certain that it will be settled though as there are some cooler unsettled zonal members in that timeframe too but on balance the latest models show it could still be a nice last week or so this month with the probable exception of the far NW .
  15. The Gfs 0z operational is showing an increasingly blocked late october with scandi height rises, it would actually feel like an Indian summer!
  16. Evening all, The GEFS 12z mean is still on track for a more benign / pleasant last third or quarter of october across most of the uk, I'm sure any respite from all the rain would / will be welcomed by the majority!
  17. Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean improves longer term as these charts show as next week's trough gradually fills in-situ and pressure rises further south, at least a north / south split gradually develops...so, following a bit of a lull early next week it becomes more unsettled for a time before some relaxation in conditions, most noticeable further s / se later.
  18. There's something for everyone on the GEFS 12z from late Indian summer to a very early taste of winter. Looking at the mean longer term there's very good support for a more benign spell during late october but more especially across southern uk.
  19. The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is also showing signs of improvement longer term, especially across southern uk with increasingly pleasant surface conditions....so, overall so far today the longer term signal is for a more benign last quarter of october, at least away from the far n / nw.
  20. The GEFS 0z mean is trending towards a more benign / pleasant / settled last quarter of october..as per the operational!
  21. As I mentioned several times yesterday, late october could be shaping up to become more benign / settled / blocked / pleasant and the Gfs 0z operational shows exactly that!
  22. The GEFS 6z mean indicates a more benign last week or so of october, at least away from the far NW... here's something for the coldies too, especially our friends in scotland, a little snaw on P16.... very much on it's own but a nice little arctic shot all the same... at least a reminder that winter is coming!❄
  23. Looking at the Gfs 6z operational, high pressure certainly plays second fiddle for most of the run with a predominantly unsettled / cyclonic outlook with spells of wind and rain followed by sunshine and showers and separated by occasional transient ridging / suckers gaps between atlantic systems, there's even a few short-lived cooler shots from the NW along the way. Towards the end of the run high pressure is in the ascendancy so a more benign late october becomes more of a possibility.
  24. My opinion of the longer term GEFS 0z is that on balance we are heading towards a more benign late october, it could even be warm with winds from the south or southeast. As for the reliable / semi-reliable timeframe it's looking generally unsettled but there is a tendency towards more of a north / south or northwest / southeast split as time goes on, the Extended Ecm 0z ensemble mean shows that too.
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