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Everything posted by Frosty.

  1. A perfick end to summer this would be from the Ecm 00z operational.☺
  2. Not a bad Gfs 12z operational with plenty of high pressure / ridging across southern uk bringing predominantly fine and warm conditions with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius, even upper 20's c at times in the most favoured spots, sure there are a few cooler changeable blips but on this run the south / southeast does rather well compared to northern uk where most of the rain occurs along with the coolest temps although even the north has a few warm fine days here and there..bottom line is, it's better than the 6z!.☺
  3. I would say it's an outlier, the GEFS 6z mean in that timeframe looks benign..back to the more reliable, this coming weekend and early next week looks better for southern uk as the azores ridge builds in across southern england so becoming predominantly fine and warm further south and then late august indicates increasing chance of high pressure becoming centred close to or over the uk..inbetween, more changeable with temperatures close to average..best chance of fine and warmer spells further s / se..most unsettled and coolest far NW.
  4. Fully agree, I don't think anyone has said there's another heatwave on the way, just occasional azores ridging further south, like the end of this week for example whereas northern uk, especially the far NW bears the brunt of the coolest most unsettled conditions..the predominant very warm settled pattern this summer is well and truly broken but I still think southern uk can look forward to some decent fine and warm spells, especially the southeast corner.☺
  5. Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an improving picture for southern uk by the weekend into next week with increasingly warm fine weather as the azores ridge builds in but staying changeable and cooler across northern uk..Further ahead the ridging persists close to the s / sw.☺
  6. On the face of it, these are nice Ecm 12z charts for the weekend into early next week, at least for southern uk with very warm potential and with the azores ridge across the south, predominantly fine with sunshine..temperatures in the mid to upper 20's celsius range..not a bad finish either with a ridge of high pressure further south.☺
  7. That GEM 12z day 10 has quite a bit of support from the GEFS 12z and running it further ahead towards the end of August there are some beautiful warm anticyclonic solutions..hopefully the met office will be right about high pressure becoming more dominant in the extended range!☺
  8. There's quite a lot of high pressure on the Gfs 6z operational with plenty of pleasantly warm fine weather, especially across england and wales..I've seen much worse!..this run would actually deliver a predominantly nice finale to this summer.☺
  9. The Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates strong azores ridge building in across the south in time for next weekend and into next week, ergo, becoming warmer and more settled further south but continuing more changeable and cooler further north.
  10. The GEFS 00z mean indicates the azores high ridging in later this week, especially during the weekend into next week, ergo, becoming warmer and more settled across southern uk but probably staying more changeable and cooler across northern uk. Thereafer, the usual ebb and flow between the azores high v lower heights to the NW as they battle to gain the upper hand but the general rule of thumb is the further south you are, the better the weather would be although some cooler changeable interludes occur even in the south from time to time. As for this week, the s / se have some warm fine weather towards midweek with temps into the mid 20's celsius, perhaps as high as 27c for parts of east anglia and the southeast and today there could be some potent storms across eastern england..most of the uk is mixed this week but as I said at the beginning, there are signs of a much better spell, at least across southern uk towards the end of this week into next week.☺
  11. Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a marked improvement further south towards next weekend which lasts into the following week further south with a spell of predominantly fine and warm / very warm weather thanks to strong azores ridging.☺
  12. A north / south split on the Ecm 12z, the northern third for the most part cooler and more generally changeable throughout whereas central and especially southern uk enjoy some summery weather at times with just the occasional cooler less settled blip..ergo, plenty of warm and indeed potentially very warm surface conditions further south / southeast for the next 10 days according to this run.
  13. The GEFS 12z mean indicates plenty of azores high / ridge influence from next weekend, at least for england and wales so a changeable week coming up but then becoming predominantly fine and warm..not seeing anything hot but I think low to mid 20's celsius and plenty of late summer sunshine would be good enough for most!☺
  14. Very good signs from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean from later in the week ahead onwards as the azores high ridges in strongly across most of the uk, ergo, becoming more settled and warmer, especially across the southern half of the uk.☺
  15. Well there's certainly potential for very warm conditions at times on this evening's Ecm 12z operational depending on sunshine amounts, especially further south there could be some rather hot days..late in the run particularly.
  16. Looking at the GEFS 12z mean the week ahead looks mixed with some rain and showers at times but also some fine warmer spells, especially further s / se but then the azores ridge builds in bringing drier and warmer conditions with sunny spells across more of the uk, thereafter there's some ebb and flow from the azores high and lower heights to the NW before the azores ridge again gets the upper hand.
  17. Some lovely late summer weather develops on the Gfs 12z operational as it becomes very warm with high pressure followed by increasing humidity from the near continent with thunderstorms bringing some flashes and bangs as we head towards the end of this memorable meteorological summer..it would provide a great finish to a great summer.☺
  18. Once again we have a good looking Ecm 00z ensemble mean at day 10 with increasing azores high / ridge influence which would hopefully bode well for the final third of August!☺
  19. Yes I was just about to say the same as mike, the Gfs 6z operational looks mainly dry, warm and fine for the southern half of the uk with plenty of high pressure / ridging whereas northern uk looks more changeable / unsettled and cooler..comparing like for like, yesterday's 6z was a stinker, today's certainly isn't!☺
  20. All things considered, the Ecm 12z would be a very good result for southern uk with predominantly higher pressure bringing some fine, very warm, even hot weather at times with impressive uppers, given any decent sunshine, temperatures would rocket with 850's generally +10 / 12 occasionally +15 / 16. Most of the unsettled weather and rather cooler conditions is further n / nw.. similar to the Gfs 12z.
  21. Much warmer Gfs 12z operational compared to the 6z across most of england and wales with some very warm largely fine spells across southern uk, especially the east / southeast..most of the unsettled and cooler weather further n / nw.
  22. Just looking through the GEFS 6z I will be very surprised (and disappointed) if we don't get another warm / very warm anticyclonic spell during the second half of this month because currently there's plenty of support for it! Looking at the latest mean, things do gradually improve.☺
  23. The Gfs 6z operational is mostly vile away from the at times warmer SE corner, there's plenty of cool, changeable / unsettled weather for most of the uk.