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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Frosty. replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m not too perturbed by the current model shenanigans!.. ..while there are perts like this in early Janvier! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Frosty. replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Loving the gallows humour on here today! ..but at least the ECM 12z op does eventually become widely colder, for a time!.. still lots of uncertainty, if you think the models are now clear on the road ahead..you’re wrong…the tipping point is still ahead of us?. I think?! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey!…the ECM 12z op isn’t so good for coldies, but at least France lost!..so I’m kind of happy.. cheers! .. plus, Dazza is happy too! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey!…no coldie..at least further north.. can deny there isn’t at least some wintery potential at crimbo time according too the GEFS 12z mean?!..and how often in recent years can that be said?… I will tell you!!!!!!.. the finger of one finger! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s a few GEFS 12z members which could spell Victory for coldies around Christmas time! … keep the faith! V for Victory! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve seen worse ECMWF 12z ensemble means for crimbo day!.. just saying! …it’s usually very mild innit! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Am I missing a trick here? …crimbo day doesn’t look mild according too the GEFS 12z mean!!…hallelujah …At least Dazza won’t be happy about the mean! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve been reading the comments, I couldn’t give a 510 dam what the USA is going to get!.. I only care about Blighty! …and it’s cold out there! …let’s enjoy the current cold and let the outlook take care of itself!..which it will..without our help!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Following much consideration…. . I’ve decided the milder blip isn’t worth mentioning! .. ..,pffft!.. … wow I’m so happy.. .. I’m practically sledging -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well…I just looked at the Gfs 12z op charts for Christmas Day and thought, what a garbage chart, but then I looked again..and thought, what a garbage chart!…. but then I looked at the surface temps and thought..well, at least it’s not mild!!!.. ..even with winds originating in Africa! ..hey, even southerlies can be rather cold!.. how things have changed since that record breaking warm autumn.. wouldn’t it be jolly spiffing not to have a mild Xmas like we usually get!! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Comparing like with like, .. …tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, especially longer term, is colder than 24 hours ago!…it’s going to turn much colder from the north next week with widespread frosts and sunny spells, especially across the interior, the shower distribution will change compared to the current easterly, when it turns more northerly, we will see a wishbone effect with showers draped around western, northern and eastern coastal counties but any disturbances pushing south would mean bands of wintry precipitation across inland areas too… a taste of winter is coming.. no stopping it now!..how long it lasts and how severe it becomes?..is well above my pay grade ! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Here’s a few GEMS .. from the GEM 12z ensembles which show longevity and severity potential regarding next weeks much anticipated cold plunge!… fingers / toes everything crossed! … I can dream! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully the ECM 12z op / mean was just a wobble / knee jerk reaction to something? … the GEFS 12z mean is colder @day 10 and there are some cracking perturbations / permutations! ️ -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean trends less cold / milder later too! …oh well, it was good while it lasted..I guess! …hey, it’s only the weather, nowt we can do or say will change what the weather wants to do!!!!.. ..wise words from yoda! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Following the initial Arctic surge southwards, the GEFS 12z mean indicates cold cyclonic!…now isn’t that better than mild cyclonic?….. answers on a postcard?.. on second thoughts, don’t bother, the postal workers are striking way too much! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey, I know we are on to the 12z now.. but, if you’re a coldie.. please explain what is so bad about the GEFS 6z mean @ T+138 hours…hmmmmm?…yep, didn’t think so! ….I have no pretensions to be an expert, there’s far brighter sparks than me meteorologically speaking… …but I’ve been here for 17 years so I’ve picked up a few tips along the way + I have instinct!! …for example, the seagulls are behaving strangely right now!!! .. go figure! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For anyone who says good things never last?..check out these GEFS 12z perturbations and you may reconsider? …this isn’t your usual mild rubbish start to a good old Blighty winter for sure! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Frosty. replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion