Frosty.

Much better than a winter with no winter which coldies endured last year and early this year As for latest models, snow is very much in the forecast tonight and early tomorrow

Latest snow prediction from the Gfs 18z, it looks like the hills of northern England and Scotland are in for significant accumulations later tomorrow and into midweek, even a risk of localised coverings on some lower ground in the north and it will be cold everywhere, especially across scotland with sharp night frosts over the snow fields..seems strange saying that on Nov 7th but in a very good way!

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows Azores high (ridging) influencing the uk for a time around the end of this week / start of next week before significant lowering heights from the NW take over, the nw / se jet alignment suggests plenty of cold shots of Arctic origin beyond mid November.

Encouraging end to the Ecm 12z with further cold air to the NW incoming, synoptically it looks good..for coldies, I hope I'm going to be saying that a lot during the weeks / months ahead!

At least there will be a block (s)..unlike last year / early this year..

There are already early weather warnings in force for higher parts of central and northern uk for snow and you can see why that's the case going by these Gfs 6z charts which show quite a few hours worth of snow with elevation and don't be surprised if some descends to lower levels..the interior of scotland is in line for a spell of heavy snow higher up and looking at the midweek temps shows an early taste of winter, the first salvo of hopefully many cold and wintry spells during the next 4 months or so! I know this is only a northern event but it's very worthy of discussion.

The CFS was showing mild recently so this is a very pleasant change

For some low ground in the north too, like Glasgow for example, anyway it's the opening salvo of wintry weather with sharp frosts tonight and then again tomorrow night over the snow fields of high ground northern England and Scotland so some lucky folk will be on lamp post alert tomorrow evening!

Do not adjust your monitors, this is in fact that white fluffy substance we call snow! Really wintry looking charts tomorrow and overnight into Wednesday..and winter is still 3 weeks away

The Ecm 00z shows pressure rising across the south later in the run so a few days of fine weather further south before low pressure arrives from the northwest by T+240 and beyond day 10 looks more unsettled. This week looks cold and there will be night frosts and snow for some..especially tomorrow

Well this is GREAT to see, the Gfs 00z op shows a widespread frost tonight and tomorrow looks the coldest day of the autumn so far...and as rain pushes east it turns to snow across higher ground of central and northern uk with a risk of significant falls and even some wintry mixing on some lower ground too!

It goes on for days with the trough to the east just sitting there and even though we don't even tap into the coldest air, it would still feel bitterly cold in the Gale force Nly winds despite what the thermometer shows..a chilly Gfs 18z low res with further attempts at arctic incursions.

This would feel a bit nippy from the Gfs 18z

The thing that strikes me most about the GEFS 12z mean is how it's never terribly mild or cold, it's different shades of grey in between and another feature is how unsettled it becomes in the mid range after some initial ebb and flow of the Az high and lower heights to the nw / n but then by mid month as the Azores high retreats, our weather becomes more trough dominated.

The Ecm 12z ends with the south of the uk in a kind of limbo, more unsettled further n / nw. In summary, the week ahead is rather chilly, especially in the east up to midweek and after a largely sunny day tomorrow apart from showers on eastern / western coasts, tuesday could be mainly dry and bright but becoming cloudy across the west heralding rain spreading east midweek with sleet / wet snow on northern hills and then thurs / fri look cool and showery before a band of rain pushes east with slightly milder temps followed by a cooler showery weekend before pressure rises from the west with more settled conditions developing for a time but then the northwest of the uk becomes windier and more unsettled..phew, a lot going on then!

Hardly baking, and its soon turning cooler again.

The Ecm 12z looks chilly throughout the working week, even after we lose the colder uppers (T850's) there is then a blink or miss it milder interlude on Friday night which is swept away southeastwards on saturday, then it's back to chilly air. High pressure then starts to build eastwards into the uk early week 2.

Whilst there is nothing particularly wintry about the outlook, there is no mild weather to speak of either, just short-lived milder incursions.. with a generally wnw / ese aligned jet, temps are expected to stay largely just below average and feeling rather cold at times due to occasionally stronger winds and it looks unsettled for most of the time with rain and showers with brief more settled interludes between and overnight frosts where skies clear and winds fall light.

I agree Ed..I mean pete The models are a rollercoaster ride of emotional highs and lows. There has / is a lot of excitement about the huge potential re the Ecm 0z op? I didn't see anything exciting about the Ecm 0z op by the way.. but both the ecm ens mean and the Gefs mean show increasing atlantic influence rather than a continuation of blocking.

Well I hope you're right but I'm just calling it as I see it, the Gefs 6z was very meh in my opinion

Just been flicking through the GEFS 6z perturbations and found a blowtorch southerly, a reminder of last December! The majority were unsettled but none of them indicate any sustainable cold, just a few mini cool / cold shots mixed with average and milder..nothing for coldies to get excited about here!

I'm definitely into colder synoptics and what I meant was a repeat pattern with no borderline issues, a proper arctic blast later in November and during winter is what I want.

Certainly with a NEly component as we have now, the showers would be blown well inland whereas a straight Northerly would mean showers draped around the coasts and yes I agree.

Yes I would think so, as the arctic gets colder, so any northerly reaching the uk would be considerably colder by December with wish bone effect snow showers and widespread sharp frosts..hope this pattern repeats in winter when it would actually deliver something to low ground! :- )

The GEFS 6z mean shows increasing atlantic influence from midweek onwards with ebb and flow of the Azores high vs lower heights to the nw / n but through the mid range it becomes more trough dominated, temps start cold but gradually recover although nothing seriously mild is indicated during the next few weeks.