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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wish the run hadn't ended, the best was yet to come! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shortwave drama..you can tell its almost winter! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Regarding the comment about the 12z likely to be more pleasing on the eye for coldies, either which way I'm not just hoping for more wintry low res, I'm expecting it more often than not. I'm also looking forward to the frosty fine weather that the models are firming up on..there could however be some persistent fog which would make affected areas very cold by day, maybe hovering around freezing or just above. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More runs are needed! There are more positives in the extended range compared to this time last year when it was all negatives staring into a mild abyss. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed, no sign of swly mild mush on the horizon apart from a mild interlude tomorrow in the south which is a victory in itself for coldies! I'm thinking below average temps will tend to dominate during the next 2 to 4 weeks. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm sure many of us are but I'm still hopeful we will have a deeper cold spell during the next few weeks rather than just surface cold. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed, ensembles are fickle things, hopefully we will see growing support for a major cold outbreak in early Dec. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I will say the extended GEFS 6z doesn't look as good (cold) as previously. There was only 1 perturbation worth showing -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 6z mean paints an increasingly settled picture from late in the week ahead until deep into week 2 with benign chilly conditions bringing sunny spells, variable cloud and widespread frosts with thick and in places, freezing fog depending on cloud cover which lasts up to around a week before it gradually becomes unsettled and hopefully with snow! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's just the normal ups and downs of following every run. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wind and rain rare?. That's a good one Anyway, after the next few days of unsettled weather its a slowly improving outlook as high pressure builds in from the NW and sticks around approx 7 days going by the 00z output. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 00z mean shows quite a lengthy anticyclonic spell on the way, it will make a pleasant change from all the wind and rain! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's looking better longer term (for coldies) and its also looking good for around 1 week of settled crisp anticyclonic weather in the more reliable timeframe. The improvement in the extended GEFS started yesterday on the 6z / 12z in particular..let's hope the cold is coming! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't overlook the pleasant anticyclonic spell the Gfs 00z shows, it's looking nice from later in the week and well into week 2 with sunny spells, light winds and frosty nights with fog patches, some freezing fog..crisp weather! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The operational output may have been a little underwhelming but there has been plenty for coldies to take encouragement from in the extended GEFS 00z / 6z / 12z with some strong arctic incursions, more than yesterday..hopefully even more support in the coming days. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whatever happens beyond T+240 hours, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes anticyclonic with fine chilly days and frosty, foggy nights depending on the variable cloud cover. It seems likely to become settled which will make a pleasant change from wet and windy! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 12z mean during early December looks cold and there is plenty of wintry perturbations showing again, the 6z was impressive too..just because the op flopped doesn't mean our chances of late Nov / early Dec cold have in any way diminished..the key word is POTENTIAL..something that was missing a year ago! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 12z mean shows an improving picture by later next week into week 2 as high pressure gradually builds in from the NW and eventually the high becomes centred over the uk bringing fine crisp days and cold nights with frost and fog becoming more widespread depending on cloud cover..it looks nice though. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
it shouldn't be any surprise that we are on course for a spell of benign anticyclonic weather and I don't think there should be any disappointment as overnight frosts and crisp bright days beat the hell out of mild swly mush any day..in my opinion! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What happens after the high is unclear and the op runs are just toying with different options but I don't think there should be any despondency just because we don't get a wintry ending every run, a bit of patience is required. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Gfs 12z shows a very pleasant anticyclonic spell developing later next week with overnight frosts and fog patches, some dense and freezing as high pressure becomes centred over the uk..nice -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 6z mean looks pretty damn good in early December and there is plenty of support from the 6z perturbations for the op run, including the control..it's a nice upgrade compared to yesterday! potentially it could be a snowy and frosty start to the new meteorological winter..fingers crossed To rule it out or say it was certain would be very misleading but there is potential. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There will probably be more model wobbles this way and the other but the trend appears to be encouraging for coldies. Cautiously optimistic -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Frosty. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's important to mention the spell of nice anticyclonic weather that develops later next week before the arctic conditions arrive on the Gfs 6z.