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Harsh Climate

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Everything posted by Harsh Climate

  1. I think the next 5 days is pretty clear anyway now, a brief easterly in Eastern areas more especially South East with perhaps a few wintry showers. Then becoming more settled next 5 days with high pressure over us or slightly to NW. That's way I see it.
  2. The background signals/ telleconections, essembles, most models plus met office who have access to £100,000,000 odd super computer all point to this Kasim. It is more than likely to happen now even at such range.
  3. FI I know but loving this chart, would be lots of shortwave, troughs/disturbances bringing snow chances out of nowhere day on day. Especially good for Northern England these setups imby I know.
  4. It's not until atleast 13th/14th where this cold pool is expected to move down into Europe. Obviously FI but more likely than not now
  5. From viewing the 00z-12z runs yesterday it became clear that things were looking good for prolonged cold/snow potential, with mid month onwards looking most interesting! Yeah we had a little potential for a transient easterly 6-8th whatever it was but never was it more than a 10/20% chance of it being a snowmaker at any level.. Now today, it is steady as she goes, maybe the the chance of something much colder mid month has even increased a little. The gfs 12z essembles are atleast the best set yet.
  6. The first easterly was never really going to offer anything.. At best ECM showed a short period of -10 uppers in the East more especially South East, which would have produced a bit of snow that would have melted low ground on most surfaces. No downgrades at all, everything is going perfectly so far for a good long cold spell with perhaps a PV split/ Greenland high and a much colder injection of air from around 13th Jan.
  7. I have known easterlies with -10 uppers provide nothing more than a slush fest before. The problem we have is that the soil/ground is as bout as saturated/warm as it possibly can be. We really need a good week of low minima and hard frosts preceeding any good snow accumulation. If the weather was to play out exactly as the Ecm shows I would have doubts about snow settling on low ground giving solid accumulations, I would expect some melting in between precipitation or even during it until the ground is cold and firm enough to allow it. Some slushy coverings possible, more so on certain surfaces. All hot air though to be fair not even worth worrying about just yet. Still think we will get the slow burner rather than the pot of gold at first attempt! Unless Ecm gains greater traction overnight (it may do) I would expect no more than a few flurries in East, more especially in Southeast and Kent where more organised mix sleet/snow possible 7/8th before perhaps more substantial cold/blocking within a week after. All jackanory at the moment, just my take on proceedings.
  8. Wise words, Ecm is lovely to see but in it's own right I wouldn't be running to by a sledge just yet. Can't ask for much more though, from that particular run.
  9. Yeah looking great so far, I feel positive for some great 12z output this afternoon, here's hoping
  10. Hopefully, a few more of these start to pop up in future runs and cluster in assembles. But I'm expecting a slower more watered down route to cold rather than these holy grail charts.
  11. Some beauties still been shown in gfs assembles, here's my favourite
  12. Well well, woke up and saw the GFS OP and thought here we go again is the GFS onto something and our upcoming cold spell is already in the bin? After checking the assembles we clearly go cold for a couple days around the 6th Jan, 50% go back milder and 50% colder so for me on that run the chances of cold and favourable blocking are at around 50%. . So after seeing the GFS I viewed the UKMO,ECM with bated breath and what a pleasant surprise! ECM, good solid block only going colder from there, with another injection of cold about to push down from Svalbard. Haven't seen where it sits in it's essembles but probably a half way house if I was to speculate. . UKMO similar to ECM at 168h, very good! . Just for fun, had a look at JMA and GEM: The pick of the bunch but I don't put too much credence in them, just like to view them because when they are showing good, they really are good! ; ) . So just from viewing the charts an excellent start to proceedings, looks like all models are in favour of prolonged cold v GFS at 50/50 for prolonged cold. I expect GFS to come on board fully later, just too much weight against the milder long term option. To add further fuel to the fire, we are feeling the effects of the Canadian warming in the stratosphere downstream now, we are about to have a bit of a strat warming at certain layers and just looking at the 300hpa strat forecast we have a decent warming eventually leading to a partially split PV, coming into the key phase of an EL Nino winter with all factors at play I only expect a cold/blocked end to January and then hopefully end of winter! Obviously, there will be the odd milder interlude. This partial split was only really showing at the back end of runs, now it is apparent after only 7 days, big upgrade there. So for me let's get the groundwork done first, good blocking high early/mid January with hard frosts and low day/night minima, thus lowering soil temperatures/hardening the ground, then when the good stuff comes later on, the ground should be primed for settling snow that doesn't melt from below even though the temperature is 0.1C Going to be a slow burner by all means, so my advice don't put too much time/concern into an individual chart/run look at the bigger picture and all data at our disposal collectively. The charts will wobble all over the place before coming to any conclusions! I just don't think models handle blocking and classic winter setups as well as they do mild and mobile Atlantic driven weather.
  13. I think let's get a nice blocking high like the ecm, plenty of frosts and low minima to lower the ground temps, then when El nino winter kicks in we should be fully primed! A lot of people in here with no patience, let's just get the ground work in first and enjoy the ride, rather than wanting all the honey straight away!
  14. Would harden the ground and lower soil temperatures a bit, which would do no harm for the future! Especially if we get second attempt at retrogression mid month.
  15. I think I could learn a lot from you Where you been hiding lol. ''Yes, they undoubtedly will and we will continue to have more and more December 2023s, February 2019s, January 2014s and December 2015s as time goes on, and less and less December 2010s. In 50 years time (2073), a December 2015-like winter month is highly likely to be the norm, if not outright cooler than average. February 2019 would also be relatively normal and many winters will see temperatures in excess of 20C at least once, although probably not quite all. December 2073 will likely have an average daily maximum somewhere in the range of 11-13C and daily minimum 7-8C, with a maximum of perhaps 16-18C. January and February will be very similar, with January 2074 having slightly lower on all stats and February 2074 having a slightly higher average daily maximum, slightly lower daily minimum and a somewhat higher maximum, probably 18-20C.'' I'm going to save these dates and temperature predictions you make, be interesting to see if you are correct, provided I'm still alive! ''My solution to the AMOC problem is that until the science on it is more settled, we shoudn't really bother to talk about it in regards to the shorter term, as in all likelihood is it not a looming threat and there are several other teleconnections and phenomena that will be disturbed long before AMOC is likely to be.'' I will take your word on it then, just that I watched a Discovery Channel program on this subject a few years ago that got me a little excited, like you say many other teleconnections/ phenomena with much more credence than something we know very little about.
  16. To be fair met office could change their long range forecast 3pm tomorrow to something less favourable. Also just like anyone else or any model they can also be wrong. Don't see how that difference in opinion is a reason to not read the thread anymore. Anyways happy new year!
  17. I would bet my bottom dollar that the ECM is closer to the GFS than UKMO, the ship has firmly sailed for any deep cold before January 14th/15th. As per met office long range forecast maybe we can get into some colder than average air late next week, then cling onto it before something more substantial takes place mid January onwards.
  18. Mate thanks for taking the time to explain your point, absolutely no offence taken. Ok I see where your coming from, the collapse of the Gulf Stream probably is a big Myth, I believe it can be weakened like in mini ice ages but again my level of knowledge on this is next to zero. So am I right in thinking that you reckon our winters will get much milder than average over the next 10-50 years? There are arguments that global warming is a myth two but I reckon you have facts to disprove that so don't want to open a can of worms .
  19. To be fair you are probably right about the first blocking high days 7-9 it does look like it will now sink, to what degree we don't know. Even as good as the UKMO looks at 144h there's no saying that won't sink either?? And we are yet to see the ECM 00z. For me the key will be the next blocking high days 13-15!
  20. Should be ok later on, getting anything from the first Block is looking very negligible now, it's what kind of block develops around 300h will be the deal breaker.
  21. Don't think I've ever seen the GFS Operational runs so consistent and like for like at 186h, almost identical to 6z
  22. Obviously, the 75-100m altitude will have helped the snow settle but is still very much classed as low ground. The reason we got the deep snow was because we was right on the boundary between cold air to the north and mild air to the south, we hit the sweet spot of precipitation, on the northern edge with uppers around -4/5. Had the system been 50 miles further south then the snowfall would have been 50 miles further south, obviously at the same altitude 75-100m+ I do remember a couple of these events (6"+) being right down as low as about 30/40m. The theory of the Gulf Stream slowing or shutting down hasn't been completely discredited the Danish still believe in it: '' While older climate models say it's “very unlikely” the AMOC will come to a standstill this century, recent Danish research puts the tipping point at around 2050, with a tiny possibility of this happening by 2025.''
  23. I Knew the Southeast has missed out over recent years but didn't realise It had been that bad. We have been very lucky with battleground snow events, obviously 50 mile or so south of here will have had rain/sleet.
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