Harsh Climate

Just bought a new weather station. An hour in from setting it up, it's showing 5.7C and barely falling anymore when local obs are showing 4C. Am I being too impatient in setting it up? The sensor is in one of those weather sensor cases. It's a Youshiko.

Yeah not sure why the downbeat mood, everything still looking very good. GFS AVG 240H ECM 240H UKMO 168H GEM 240H JMA 240H All very good at 240h, which is already way out the reliable timeframe, forget what some are showing after. Yes these charts aren't the 10/10 FI charts we been spoilt with over the last few days but they are still very good. Forme we have had the expected model wobble, we have had the wobble with the overly good charts a couple of days ago, now we are seeing kind of the other end of the spectrum. Still very good and packed with snow potential in my opinion. Once we get the cold in, it should be very stubborn to move! The models usually nearly always overplay any return to a more mild/mobile set-up, with the current northern hemisphere profile and background driver signals at worst I see a battleground scenario setting up next week with milder air to the southwest (with rain/sleet) and colder air to the more NE (with snow showers). Perhaps heavy snow where the boundaries meet. Again, a lot of water to go under the bridge, no alarm bells ringing for me just yet, far from it.

I think the ECM 12z will be way out of kilter with its own assembles never mind all the other models!

216h I don't believe it at all, I think something earlier in the run has caused the ECM to stop the cold plunge from the North Sunday night. For me that is set in stone from looking at all the output, I'm not that worried by this rogue ECM run.

I'm not that keen on it, not sure the cold is going to make it all the way down to the south. hope 216 proves me wrong

I think the models have had their little wobble, I am expecting upgrades

Felt really like winter today, quite nippy and that was only under -4 850s

Could really do with the opening Northerly next Sunday coming in from a more NE direction off the sea, for snow showers inland. Looking highly likely to be a straight Northerly though.

Anyone else thinking that Denmark are having a 1963 esque winter lol, GFS 0-384h just locked into cold and snowfall potential!

I think with all the moisture in the ground, there would be some pretty bad freezing fog about, wouldn't be supprised with some places no higher than -2c during the day.

GFS 288h Looks like the cold 500s are just being tipped from the NE over the UK. Increasingly unstable, would expect disturbances to break out.

GFS 270h Lovely looking chart.

It's all looking toned down today on the charts, yesterday the cold runs where on steroids! Only one way it was going to go from there, and that's the more realistic watered down cold charts. To be fair they could go Excellent again and I would prefer that closer to the time than 10 days away lol.

Yeah spot on.

I think rather than 70-30% in favour of deep cold/snow 14th Jan + (yesterday) I think we are now 55% - 45% still in favour of Deep cold/snow from 14th Jan +. That's just my personal oppinion so don't shoot me. The models struggle with these set-ups and for me this is looking a very unusual set-up with the Atlantic eventually looking dead.

Na, these border line situations is where all the snow comes from, Central Northern England do very well from these set ups! . Not so much the south unless its channel low territory.

168h pretty nice The deep cold is coming into Europe, just hope as far west as us.

Good ECM 120 Can't see anything wrong with it

If all these great charts for the 12th Jan + are still here Sunday Afternoon I will then go full ramp! . Especially as I will have have had a few beers! .

Exactly mate. To be honest I think there's a chance this upcoming cold spell could be the start of another one of 'those great winters'. Or if it does breakdown quicker than first thought I still think the back end of this winter will be colder/snowier than average! But that doesnt mean, Im going to look at charts 10+ days away and go on an all out ramp over them! As if it's 100% certain. I've seen an almost certain NE with direct hit of -15 upper 850s with strong winds and dark blues at range of T96 hours on most models to vanish the next morning to a near miss (high pressure further SE) with low country's and Channel getting battered with blizzards whilst we got nothing! It was at that moment I truly learnt nothing is certain! I hope others don't have to experience this anytime soon! Think the year this happened was 2003.

I've been telling people at work since the 23rd!

Shhh don't say that too loud in here, you will get shot down with words of reason like that . Exactly. Who isn't enjoying these lovely charts, we can dream. But the wise old heads in here have been around long enough to know it isn't cut and dry until atleast a few days away.

Wise words, funny how many people are on full ramp charts 10+ days away . Even though everything is saying deep cold and blocking, there is still the potential for a spanner in the works nearer the time (West based NAO) (some places being completely dry while a few lucky places get clobbered by snow streamers..) like you I'm holding back any real excitement for a few days yet. Could you imagine if that 5/10% chance of it going the way of the pear happened, think there would be a few upset people on here. Still though, can't ask for better charts than what we are seeing.

Don't think I've ever seen a GFS average as good at 240h ever!

Priming the ground, so when it falls it settles! Hopefully 2 weeks of cold should be enough before the good stuff hopefully comes