Harsh Climate

GFS OP 204H GFS AVG 204H Just as I thought, the best place for the GFS OP, is the bin!

There is a definite trend for heights to start lowering over Greenland from around 164h on pretty much every model. We just need to make sure we are on the northern side of lows which will eventually encroach from between the NW ~ SW. At this early stage, I would say Central UK northwards looking good, South of that I would be rather worried! More runs needed though, big ECM coming up

I saw a couple runs yesterday toy with that idea, battle ground snow not making it past the north midlands but with lots of snow showers piling in from the east just north into northern England/ southern Scotland! You don't want to be in the dreaded dry patch sandwiched in between though

Yeah been a few models toying with that idea, sliders from the NW a fair bit safer in keeping the cold 2, rather than the big barage from the SW lol.

From looking at the latest output it does look like over the last 24 hours most models have moved away from the suggestion of a retrogressing high towards Greenland/Scandi later next week with perhaps deep cold and a more longer lasting cold spell. What we have instead is potentially a brilliant setup for Central UK, which there could be one or 2 big falls of snow even down to very low levels. The trade off is I think we lose the potential for one big long cold spell, with snow showers. Instead, we lose HLB and you would fancy some milder air to filter through at some time late next week. Not a guarantee but a good likelihood for most areas. Perhaps far NE holding onto colder air. For me this isn't too bad if you achieve some good snowfall(s) beforehand. And further cold or even HLB could just be around the corner after a brief lul anyway.

Couldn't have put it better myself

Latest ECM is a snowfest for our region, but most likely would reduce longetivity of cold spell. Would be a lot of rain/sleet south of Midlands. All just speculation at this stage though.

Pretty good shout that, here in East Leeds would probably squeeze couple cm out of a set up like that. In Otley I'd have been licking my lips perhaps 2'' not 2cm lol.. Yeah might be one to watch as I'm pretty confident there will be snow opportunities next week!

Yes, there does seem some delays in getting the cold air south. In the end the boundary of polar air on ECM reaches the middle of France, way past the south of England! I think it will happen, the devil is in the detail though.

ECM pretty much removes the battleground snow event early next week but could be a shortwave moving down from the NW instead Also, the rest of the ECM run is far better for longevity of our cold spell two, hands down I choose the ECM's take on next week's weather!

Well it gets there by the 17th, great for everywhere here

There's no getting away from the ECM looking great for the northern half of the UK and less so for the southern half. Not any bias here just the way I see this run

And this point ''A class 1 WMO weather station requires 100m free of windbreaks and significant structures like fences'' these weather stations are designed for people's back gardens, how many people who have purchased a Youshiko or similar weather station have a garden with at least 100m length or width?

You have seen where mine is located from the pic on the other thread (and yes it is now 1.25m off the ground), it's about 20 feet from my back window near the fence. Obviously, you don't place it next to your house where there is heat coming from it.

I don't mean this in a bad way mate but I want whatever your smoking! If your outside weather sensor is protected from the elements like sunlight/ rain in say a designed weather sensor box like the one I've got You certainly aren't going to get a difference of 3c whether or not it is placed near a hedge or a fence! . I think your on the troll aren't ya.

All irrelevant now as deep FI but this slider from the NW would bring in more snow.

246h, we are well and truly in the cold air. The battle ground snow line around northern France now, Uk well and truly in the freezer.

I can smell a major snow event coming to North Midlands/Northern England with rain/sleet to south according to GFS Would follow on the general theme from over the last several years

If I was south of the Midlands I would be very worried. We tend to do well from battleground scenarios, this could be the making of our winter! I've seen strong cold NE/E pull with -12 uppers provide nothing but cold and dry for our region while Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Yorkshire Dales etc get battered by snow showers.. Time and time again. I'd take battle ground snow any day now, forget those perfect NE with powder snow showers too rare!

Anyone in Garforth give me a temperature reading from their weather station, just set mine up and want a comparison. Is Bazookabob about?

Excellent ecm 192!

168 should be a peach!

A fair few people getting excited over snow potential in Kent, maybe southeast tomorrow. I'm just not seeing it, -10 850s with the 'green' 500s just doesn't cut it in my opinion. With the warm/damp ground can't see any appreciable snowfall low ground. The window of potential snowfall maybe 12 hours just looks too short especially as I see most precipitation light to moderate.

Seems a bit extreme that, not many people have that option in their back garden. Well it's saying 4.9C now, that must be pretty accurate? When I have set up an outside temperature sensor before in winter, the best way to test has been by filling a small plastic bottle top with water on an evening when the temperature is expected to fall below zero, when starting above. Now if the water freezes in it when the reading is close to zero you know it's pretty accurate. For me this has worked well in the past, I will be doing it again soon. One time had the tiniest bit of snow melt on a metal post holding garden chains, temperature was showing 0.2c, soon as there was no melatge at all I noticed the temperature reading was bang on 0c that is how I knew that reading was bang on perfect.

Sound I will raise it up to that level, thought it was best kept away from the wind lol.