Harsh Climate

January 11

Just now, Ice Day said:

Accumulated snowfall on the GFS at 168 has pretty much the whole country in on the act

These have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, of course. However, this is definitely an option on the table!

Absolute chaos in the models, and I'm loving every second!

It could be close in the fact that we are about to be attacked from all sides next week with a few snow events?

January 11

Also for the outlook, I am giving greatest credence to UKMO and then ECM. GFS absolute fodder in this setup if you ask me.

January 11

Huge 12z runs to come out soon, obviously won't be definitive but should shed some light on 2 possible snow scenarios next week.

a. The possible slider/disturbance from the NW Tuesday.

b. The potential snowmageddon from the Southwest on Wednesday.

.

Let's see if these scenarios are still on the table.

But I see some subtle hints:

a. That the feature from the NW not making it past Southern Scotland/Northern most parts of England, whilst

b. The feature from the SW barely makes it into Southern England, or blows up and heads way north into Northern England. Each scenario obviously having huge ramifications on whatever your locality.

Not even that bothered what the charts say after Wednesday now, as is way beyond FI in this setup, any track of Wednesday's low if it happens at all won't be decided until <T24 .

January 11

57 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure how many more time you can basically write it’s going to be dry.

i think we get it now.

we've gone from storm of the century to dry as a desert, i now forecast change with new data but maybe just maybe we dial it back a bit.

looking at a few operation 5 days and dismissing unexpected features about 6 times in one morning is a bit much.

I'm not seeing it being dry at all. UKMO would deliver a hell of a lot snow Northern England northwards. I have a feeling we will have a few systems coming in from the NW - SW next week delivering a lot of snow over quite a wide area. This area is looking like being North Midlands/ Central Northern England northwards at the moment but in reality could be hundreds miles either way.

Again next week looks far from dry!

January 11

Well well well the UKMO is a of a run for our region, snowmageddon, this is where we want to be! Get the dumping of snow in first, then worry about lack of longetivity after.

Absolute stinker of a run Midlands south though ..

I would discount the poor GFS, blows up lows all over the place like it normally does, If it can't even get the first attacking low correct the rest will be way out of Kilter too. Higher resolution models way to go at moment.

January 10

57 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Indeed, and as flagged by @Harsh Climate in the MOD thread the UKMO has a similar feature to the GEM from the North West. The ICON had something on Tuesday and thereafter after looked dry, but given the deep level of cold / instability you'd expect surprises to crop up. In regards regional preferences, i think we want the UKMO / GEM solution. Yes we miss out on the battle ground snow, but as flagged above, plenty of opportunity for systems and disturbances.

ECM is almost perfect for our region, not so much down south

January 10

3 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

ECM looks like an upgrade so far!

Yeah certainly is, slider incoming from the Northwest!

January 10

Just now, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,UKMO and ICON keep low pressure disturbances to the south of the UK while American models keen on having an influence with a mixture in the south of rain/snow depending on where you live.All models still struggling with the pattern change lots going on SSW helping to complicate things,personally I’m sure most parts of the UK will see snow with in the next 10 days along with distribution.

UKMO is a peach, surely a band of sleet/snow moving south across the whole country on wednesday

Cold air locked in.

January 10

1 minute ago, Troubleatmill said:

I think the difference between this set up and the normal track of these type of lows, is that the cold air is not yet in place, so it will be all about timings of each airmass.

I also understand the whole concept that the further south a low tracks, the longer the cold is kept in. However that's only ideal if places further north got snow afterwards (so south and north get snow...all happy families lol), in reality the cold normally hangs about for another two days and then the Atlantic full onslaught with no battleground.

Not the usual set up this though is it....who knows

Yeah, that's a good grasp on it you have there. Like I say best to get the snow early doors than keep waiting for it never to come..

Hopefully, everyone can get some snow. I would like to hear more of a hint of frequent snow showers being blown in off the sea for areas north of wednesday's possible low. Not seen too much of a hint of this just yet but usually happens in that type of setup, with a dry slot in between snow showers to NE and snow/rain to the south.

January 10

Huge scatter on the GFS 12z Essembles, some perputations don't even have that area of low pressure (wednesday) at all!

Although a few blow it up way north than progged on the OP

January 10

1 minute ago, booferking said:

ARPEGE clean flow direct northerly.

No clean flows please unless the wind is coming in off the North Sea

January 10

Looks like GFS might try an d pull a Northeasterly in after the initial excitement of next week, seen the odd model toying with this idea now.

January 10

Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS looks a mess later and I wouldn’t bother reading too much into its post day 8 output .

We still don’t have agreement at day 6.

I think it's fair to say the exact track of Wednesday's low (if actually Wednesday) won't be decided until <24 hours would be a case of Nowcasting watching how far north the front makes it and pivots.

January 10

Just now, Aiden2012 said:

Not a fan of the gfs 12z gotta admit

If the GFS was to be bang on correct it would be pretty bad for us.

We just miss out on the heavy snow to the south, but we are too near that to get the snow showers from the northeast.

We need Wednesday's low further north delivering us the dumping, or it much further south, hopefully bringing us into snow showers from the NE. Middle ground is no good.

January 10

Just now, terrier said:

Ideally we won’t that low as far south as possible to keep us locked into the cold airmass.

I'd rather get the big dumping of snow first mate, then I would be content even if that was the last of the snow for me!

Problem is you can keep missing out while same places get hit time and time again.

January 10

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

I think the low will end up trending south, that's what usually happens closer to the time.

Used to be the case with the likes of Shropshire, Birmingham, Leictester getting all the snow in these setups. But in recent years it has been Central UK like Leeds, Sheffield, Halifax, Doncaster getting all the snow.

January 10

7 minutes ago, Jacob said:

GFS 12z so far looks more at the mercy of the Atlantic and the shortwave south west of us is further north east and is more developed

Just a tad further north then perfection

January 10

2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

GFS 12z looks freezing!!! -10c isotherm well through the country by Monday morning.

Let's see if we get that little runner from the NW

January 10

Cold air really digging south across the UK as early as Sunday evening

Showers turning readily to snow in the north, Blizzards in Scotland. Obviously, eastern coastal regions favored.

January 9

1 hour ago, Empire Of Snow said:

I can't see any downgrades so far. It's too early though to forecast anything 6-7 days ahead. Truth is some places in Yorkshire might end with 30cm+ next week. Still too early, let's wait until the weekend.

Probably Sheffield