Harsh Climate

January 17

I think we have learnt a lot from this cold spell, especially no matter how good the charts look nothing is set in stone.

For me this cold spell has dismissed the notion you need cold soil/ground temperatures for snow to settle (need a good week or two of frosts.) Almost down to sea level in Liverpool the snow settled yesterday morning, even after all the mild dross we have had already most of this winter. Only did it melt once the temperature rose above freezing.

I say from now on we need

1. The battleground snow with heavy long lasting precipitation with evaporative cooling coming in to play.

2. The beast from the east -10-15 uppers with showers feeding in from the east with no high ground eating them up. Obviously IMBY that.

Anything else away from Northern Scotland will just be standard winter fare, with disappointments easy to come by!

January 16

Just now, joggs said:

Sorry mate. Just been out with dog. Big flakes and fairl heavy but a slight wet vibe to it now which wasn't there an hour ago.

Ah right, thought it might be going the other way and turn more to snow. Prob won't be until after midnight when the precipitation is almost gone lol

January 16

You reporting snow joggs? Heavy blob about to hit you

January 16

57 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

Has to be up there with one of the most overhyped events in many years this time last week people aree talking about ice days and - double digit temps it is currently 3c and all we have had is a tiny bit of dandruff.

Those that hyped it up must be feeling a tad silly given the hype they were making out like we were going to see Beast from the east Mk2.

Yes and I heard comparisons of winter 1978/79 and that ''there would be many attacks on our blocking high which would be rebuffed.''

The first meaningful attack from the Atlantic this weekend, we end up with blow torch South Westerlies . Before that though patting themselves on the back and bigging up their wacky forecasting methods at 7 day+ GFS/ECM charts to suddenly disappear into the abyss lol

January 16

15 minutes ago, joggs said:

Oh well.

Looking to see if we get any shower activity over the next few days before the mild stormy weather returns

Barring a miracle this will probably go down as my second most disappointing cold spell of all time! Especially with the weeks of hype.

January 16

20 minutes ago, joggs said:

Low lying areas will soon have to wait for the colder uppers to flood back but just hope there'll be precip around.

The problem is according to the data it doesn't turn favorable until after midnight when most of the precipitation has gone or died.

Everything should be settling after 3am when it's bone dry.

January 15

4 hours ago, Tim A said:

Hope so , but don't really see it myself. Somewhere like Shap looks likely to get a big fall tomorrow.

Thursday evening might be better (UKV looks interesting)

I'm still going for 5-10cm for your location perhaps more, Once the showers align through the gaps of high ground to NW and W you will get hammered.

Like you say the Yorkshire dales further north and northwest will get battered. Maybe 20cm+

January 14

1 minute ago, Tim A said:

Not really very hopefully for Tuesday, either, yet to see a recent model run that shows snowfall over us or most of the region. Only hope is models are underestimating like the weekend of the 26th Nov 21 (Storm Arwen) that was unexpected from the NW. But that is hopecasting really. Some models such as UKMO HD show heavy snow NW Dales but not really further SE.

Met office text forecasts are lazy so whilst they say chance of disruptive snow , they say they same thing for NW England, Yorks and NE England, they are often way off the mark so wouldn't rely on them.

You will get a good stream of snow showers at some point between Tue - Thu. At your elevation will be cold enough for 100% settling snow for the most part, as you know doesn't take long for heavy snow showers to quickly accumulate in those conditions. I'm going 5-10cm for you.

January 14

57 minutes ago, cheese said:

It can produce some very good sea effect snow occasionally though, just needs a cold enough air mass. Feb/March 2018 had brilliant sea effect snow.

This radar image was from February 28th 2018. Heavy snow showers all day. Low visibility and drifting.

Oh how I miss the rain today radar, had many a good night following snow showers in from the E or NE (well maybe not many.)

The north sea would be better than the great lakes with its higher temperatures, The only problem is we don't have -25 uppers going across it like Buffalo or Oswego get!

January 14

Gotta say I am not that confident of snow IMBY, maybe dusting - 1 cm as the front clears Tuesday evening/night.

Had I still lived in Otley I would have been licking my lips at the chance of a surprise snowfall, nothing more satisfying than that! Otley I am going 3-5cm Tuesday - Thursday with 20% of up to 10cm. Otley always had a special nack of showers feeding in at night from gaps in the high ground to the west and northwest.

January 14

Fax chart showing a Pembrokeshire dangler tonight

January 14

17 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A stagnant WNW flow on the rear of the trough may produce a continuous feed of Irish sea moisture into the main convective zone producing the risk of persistent hill snow and mixed phase precipitation to lower levels during Tuesday afternoon and into the early hours of Monday. As a result 10-15cm of snowfall is possible above around 150m where this forms. This likely somewhere between Harrogate and the North York Moors, therefore this is no guarantee of significant snowfall due to the uncertainty around the trough placement. Lower levels will see mixed precipitation with the possibility of more optimal snow conditions to around 50m asl establishing on the back edge of the system which could produce 1-3cm locally as the front moves South during Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Areas above 200m asl may see as much as 3-8cm as the trough progresses into a frontal system.

Excellent post Kasim, looks about right.

I think through Tuesday evening - Wednesday morning as the lower 850s come back down the snow level should drop and some low lying areas could get some decent accumulations, where showers allign. Going to do a post later on my thoughts/predictions.

January 14

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

For those further north I’d be looking at these with some interest.

Yes I'm liking the look of that cold front moving south late Tuesday night. Be interesting to see if we get a line of precipitation moving south that is actually attached to that system already out into the North Sea?

If it is to play out like that I still wouldn't expect more than a couple of cm as I would expect the band moving south to be quite narrow and reasonably fast moving. But right now I would be delighted with that as would a few folk in the North Midlands.

The real depths will come from snow showers aligning and being very persistent.

January 13

I think there will certainly be a few surprises from the NW Tuesday/ Wednesday morning. Looks a fairly active system even has a triple point

Even by Wednesday the front is still apparent and has reached Central Southern England, albeit a decaying feature.

Look at the 500s, blue colors should give rise to some decent shower activity and quite gusty little winds developing I think a few favored places could be in line for 10-15cm, especially where showers/streamers align. Mostly talking about England's chances, Scotland more like 20-30cm in favored places.

RED BOX - 5 to 15cm plus accumulations perhaps reserved for elevation 100m+ (About as far east as western suburbs of Leeds.) Further east a sporadic dusting to 2/3cm - BLUE BOX

Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

January 13

1 minute ago, Liam J said:

Ignoring all the ridiculous drivel and moans in here because of the lack of snow being shown in people’s back yards next week…

A cold to very cold mid January spell is about to take hold from tomorrow lasting most of next week, many people will see falling snow at some point and a some will even get lying snow.

Last month up here the central & southern lakes got 20-30cm of snow, this what not picked up by any models & the Met office issued a late Amber warning once the event was already underway….

Sub -10°c 850 temps pushing well down the country during Sunday & Monday

It will feel wintry with widespread frosts which will be severe in places with some low very low minimums, ice days too. Significant windchill at times

Good post, I think some in the NW and Northern England could do very well Tuesday into Wednesday.

January 12

7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Yeah, ECM tally's with the BBC forecast. Suggests accumulations to the west of the pennies, one to watch

FWIW - whilst i wouldn't expect significant accumulations to the east, i reckon the ECM is probably underdoing what makes it over.

UKMO has much more extensive precipitation, ECM probably underplaying the extent of it.

On face value if the models were to be right now, this looks very much like a West Leeds event with places like Skipton, Otley, Halifax, perhaps Bradford having quite a nice surprise with a sharp cut off of precipitation once ya reach Headingly/ Leeds City centre..

Ovcoarse too early to name exact area to receive the snow tuesday, but a bit of luck and we could have a large part of West, South and North Yorkshire receiving the snow than just more western areas.

January 12

ECM doesn't look bad for snow Tuesday as well

Decent wind direction.

Bit of strength to it and colder 500s (towards east) should help it spread east

January 12

35 minutes ago, DevinW said:

Although the snow potential looks likely for early next week it’ll be down to nowcasting to see if the precipitation does go over the Pennines unaffected or if it fizzles out before reaching us. Here’s to hoping that it does snow, and a lot!

Put it this way I'd rather still be living in Otley at 330ft asl near the north Yorkshire border than here in Kippax 200ft asl, for snow chances next week.

11 minutes ago, The PIT said:

The only Snow GFS shows is a few flurries Wednesday evening. Local forecast agrees. At least we should see some sunshine the grey drizzle rubbish of the last few days is annoying.

Gfs precipitation maps in next week's set up are next to useless. Ukmo, Aprege, net weather model and nowcasting all the way!

January 12

UKMO keeps us in the game 🌨

January 12

Really hoping the 12z can chuck something significant in from the NW Tue-Fri!

January 12

5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I prefer to measure my snow in FEET!

🌨 We could dream.

Members in Scotland might be doing that soon though.

January 12

42 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Noting has changed my mind on the overnight runs.

Many scenarios for next weekend, but likely some form of cold / or something closer to average.

The low to the south is continuing to trend further south.

Taken at face value, precipitation charts less good than last night, but as noted expect multiple 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' over the next several days.

Widespread decent accumulations of snow never looked highly likely, but i am still fairly confident someone within the region will have seen a few CM's by weeks end from troughs / disturbances being picked up closer to the time. But also, a chance we might not, that's the reality unfortunately! Opportunities for something more widespread may come with an attempted pattern change, though perhaps not long lasting. A long way to go before then, and i'd be keeping an eye to the North East as we get closer to Feb..

Spot on that mate

We want inches of snow though not mere cm's.... .

43 minutes ago, joggs said:

How's it looking for our region this week?.

What's everyone's thoughts?.

Check out marks post

January 12

34 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

I too am liking the UKMO this morning, some nice cold uppers in there and regarding dry I do think there will be the odd opportunity for snow Mon-Thu, though larger amounts will be reserved for northern Scotland, N York moors probably do OK. Really looking like the jet fires up from next weekend so got to hope there is snow in the Mon-Thu period.

Yeah things could pop up but 24/36 hours ago we was looking at a nice slider from the NW with snowfall for our region or the possibility of a big dumping from the SW Wednesday, these options have disappeared.

January 12

1 hour ago, Craigers said:

UKMO is best chart since 2018!!!!

Look at the precipitation charts, essentially dry for our region. Yeah it's not far from being good but a far cry from what Ukmo was showing yesterday.

January 12

Not liking overnight output at all, as The Pit says looking really dry..

Still time for change but we need improvements within the next 48 hours.

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