Harsh Climate

Fair play you went against the grain and called what the ECM and UKMO are now showing. At least you still have your house

I tell you what I'm confident in saying some parts are going to get clobbered sometime over the next few days! (As I said earlier the areas at most risk south east of london into kent, south east scotland/ northumberland and the north east of england/yorkshire/lincolnshire. Tuesday into wednesday morning clearly the greatest risk. All the precipitation charts are hinting at streamers, where these set up when the temperature is just cold enough anywhere could see 5-10cm fall in just a few hours you mark my words! Will be a classic case of radar watching, obviously outside these zones there will be utter misery, my advice would be to have petrol in your car, if you have no car download the app for UBER! I move away from the longer term now as I believe the UKMO and ECM have sussed it out (unless 12z ecm can pull a rabit out the hat.) All my energy now on the next few days potential then the attack from the north west this weekend. And we even have those lovely twig things appearing on the bracknel fax charts! I call those BOOM STICKS!

I tell you what I'm confident in saying some parts of our region are going to get clobbered sometime over the next few days! Tuesday into wednesday morning clearly the greatest risk. All the precipitation charts are hinting at streamers, where these set up when the temperature is just cold enough anywhere could see 5-10cm fall in just a few hours you mark my words! And we even have those lovely twig things appearing on the bracknel fax charts I call them BOOM STICKS! Will be a classic case of radar watching, obviously outside these zones there will be utter misery, my advice would be to have petrol in your car, if you have no car download the app for UBER! I move away from the longer term now as I believe the UKMO and ECM have sussed it out (unless 12z ecm can pull a rabit out the hat.) All energy now on the next few days potential then the attack from the north west this weekend.

. Would normally be very dissapointed but can't be when have a good few days of snow potential coming up. And the effects of the SSW I'm sure will give us a good late january into februrary! Still all to play for this winter.

Yep poor UKMO , If ECM Follows UKMO, milder atlantic air will win out next week, you would be about 90% shaw.

That dreaded low between greenland and iceland is here on gfs 12z at 108h, this will only go one way Doesnt matter though its all about the ukmo and ecm

I wouldn't worry what the Icon shows its a mickey mouse model just like the JMA and GEM. Comparing the Icon to the UKMO and ECM is like comparing a degree in religious studies or art to a degree in pure mathmatics and physics! All I care about right now from the 12z is how the UKMO and ECM turnout. A good gfs to match wouldn't go amiss but less important.

Anyone else a tad nervous for the 12zs? A good ECM and UKMO would bring the house down!

Anyone else a tad nervous for the 12zs? A good ECM and UKMO would bring the house down in the model thread!

wow was a bit sceptical when I heard of people catching it twice, just goes to show how serious this thing is. Don't think any one would begrudge you a good snowfall, as long is it doesn't come from mine haha

Yeah, hopefully we get a lovely snow storm from the northwest late net week followed by colder weather as the gfs is showing but my gut just says ecm and ukmo will probably be right, like you no degree and all that lol but go and my gut and past experiences. Saw a post on south east thread earlyier that explains it really well (paul sherman): '' Just pray and pray GFS is correct as its pretty much that Model against the rest and is showing an absolute snowfest for most of the UK. After a 40 hour spell of streamers like Nick says above away from the coasts it dries out for Thursday before the mother of all SnowStorms from the North and North West, then continues cold with more troughs and low pressure coming down from the north into entrenched cold. Only problem is none of the other Models are seeing this and after a rainy sleety mess over the next 72 hours they revert back to a more mobile pattern after the end of this week. Unfortunately I know who my money is on. '' Not to say your not right though, pulling a random figure out I give gfs a 25% being right over ukmo/ecm but who knows what the 12z will bring, we all praying and crossing toes for a big u turn. Yeah much better than last winter and at this stage atleast we seen a few brief falls and a few better ones hopefully next week! Also I do hope your right about the SSW having an effect soon rather than next month. I want to see those 19th century victorian weather charts appear!

Must be bad : ( , try to take break from the weather now and again as you don't want to be wasting energy albeit mental energy but I know that's nearly impossible

Ah hope ya get better soon mate. I think it's looking good, I wouldn't be supprised if people started seeing settling snow from this evening as the colder uppers start to dig in and shower activity reinvigorates. Then the large shop window of opportunity is open all the way until wednesday morning. I tell you something most of us will get that lovely feeling sometime next week when a feed of showers/streamer hits, It's piling it down with snow and ya thinkin get in, how much we gunna get! Whether that be 1cm or 8cm I don't know lol. On that preciptation chart I showed does have your area at most risk of heavy precipitation tuesday but that area shifting slightly north as the day progresses. Let's just hope we get better ukmo and ecm later, as snow falling with no end to cold in sight ain't the same as snow falling with no end in sight haha

I think another thing we need is this low that comes down from iceland this weekend to be less deep and possibly track more south east of where it is here. Think it leaves too much residual energy over the region it's coming from for good heights to develop. Still might be ok though

Yeah the modeling of that pacific low is key! Keeping my eye on it.

Stronger block in atlantic and towards greenland, think this will be a good run. GFS6Z T87

Yeah some good points there lee, we must be grateful. Just I prefer seeing a snowfall when I know there's no end in sight of the cold and more snow could be on the way. Yes I'm a greedy.........

I checked the gfs first this morning and was delighted that it hadn't reverted back to yesterday's 12z, expecting the UKMO and ECM to be buisiness as usual (from last few days) but nearly spat my coffee out in disgust at the treachery the two have just pulled on us all!

I think this preciptation chart shows well the 3 main areas at risk of snow tuesday Area 1 - the south east corner, looks like a large streamer will set up shop. If uppers are cold enough could see some good totals down there but may be a bit marginal away from high ground. Area 2 - Northumberland into south east corner of scotland. Another large feed of showers/streamer setting up. As usual Edinburgh will get hammered with a stream of showers but like in the south east will it be cold enough? Area 3 - North east england Yorkshire. Slightly colder uppers here of -7 / -8 with occasional -9. Lots of showers piling in, would expect a good covering in many places, obviously high ground and away from the coast faring best. I think the potential for biggest dumping of snow is in kent/south east of london but that is far from cut and dry!

The ECM and UKMO are a bit disapointing this morning though mate. That aside they can still change on the next output And this morning's gfs has improved our snow chances mon ~ wed. Now occasional -9 uppers showing across our region, I think average upper has gone down to -7.75 now the balance has just been tipped. And also good precipitation now shown across our region on tuesday.

You can powder coat it all you like but from where we was 2/3 days ago to now, the ECM and UKMO are a bit of a let down this morning. Gfs and it's essembles have improved since 12 hours ago but we need the 2 big guns onboard. A massive 12z coming later, far too early to be bringing the fat singing lady out, but we do not want the ECM and ukmo going anymore the way they have gone this morning. Not a moan or a tantrum lol just a clear observation of what is in front of me.

As good as the run is wouldn't this be the cruelest let down of all time?

Look at whats about to drop into scandinavia!

Look at ridge developing from Greenland. Beautiful

I think we need the low over southern England to absorb that low coming down from North of Scotland.. Also WAA trying to push up western side of Greenland looks good.