Harsh Climate

I think most of us should see some decent snow falling, Thursday but I'm not expecting much IMBY, west of Leeds and especially anywhere with elevation (150m+) could do very well. Reason I say more doubtful east of leeds, it does look like slightly less could uppers feeding up this side late Thursday into Friday, with more western areas the cold perhaps been reinvigorated from slightly colder uppers digging in on the other flank. All does depend on the exact track, angle and amplification of thursdays low though. Also does a second system with milder air push north on Friday we do not know? I believe the underwhelming met office warning for low ground is because they expect everything to be shunted north as we head into Friday/ Saturday, raising the snow levels and lowering accumulations down at low levels. Believe you me, keep an eye on the -5 850 boundary, If the precipitation is heavy enough snow will settle nicely down to 50m, perhaps lower If we are right side of this long enough. I'm a little more optimistic for snow not turning to rain for places that have snow Friday if we don't get that big push of milder air from the south Friday, I mean it will become less cool, but under heavy precipitation with more favourable 500s, -2/3 uppers may be cold enough! Believe me with these 500s the snow level will come right down in heavy precipitation with uppers right side of 0. The bbc /met office haven't got a clue, more data updates needed, may be a T0 nowcast what will happen! You guys west of Leeds with decent altitude I would be very excited about this. Although small changes on future runs could have huge ramifications either way, just saying how II see it right now.

AO- In Holland you was always going to be on the milder sector of air Thursday to Saturday. Also look at the long term outlook on those essembles, they are heading in the right direction which is colder.

People up and down like yoyo's every run. Firstly the snow/cold chances are good, then bad, then good, then bad, then good ... Do people ever learn? We have had a day of upgrades, nothing has changed. In fact all that has happened today is 1. There is now a small chance of snow Tuesday rather than nothing. 2. Thursdays Heavy snow is very much still on for a part of the UK, rather than nothing.. Now even as far south as Midlands now at risk! Huge upgrades there. Stop trying to find specifics and over analyse precipitation charts and local features 2-5 days out. I've noticed as soon as the live members list rises in the MOD thread, so does the mass hysteria run to run . Sit back and enjoy the ride peeps, there are no downgrades this evening, only other options being added to the 2 dozen others already on the table. Things are moving along nicely, we are another 24 hours closer today, with Snow on the way for some and cracking eye candy late on on most models regarding the potential for a Greenland high. Seriously when are people ever happy lol.

For me the last few days all the attention was on Thursday's snow potential, now we are looking at an early tasty on Tuesday for a bit of back edge snow. Just shows how snow chances can just about pop up anywhere once ya get the colder air in. Provided it isn't a straight Northerly ovcoarse lol..

Spah1 It is further south on it's track west to east, the problem is it blows up north after initial entry to UK. This is a perfectly plausible outcome, hope not though.

Has anyone got any charts for UKMO 12z on Tuesday? Is it showing a snow risk like on GFS?? Can only see 72-96h EDIT: Found them Looks like the risk is here on UKMO two.

Tim Bland Wow this run is a huge upgrade so far, snow as early as Tuesday for some! Back edge snowfalll as the front clears south.

Chesil View I don't even look at the Icon. Along with GEM and JMA I'm not keen on them at all.

winterof79 Check out the latest bbc graphics, well further south Obviously only to be taken with a pinch of salt at this range but nonetheless... Edit: And this for Saturday

blizzard81 Ye that's still a plausible option mate : ) Nothing is conclusive at this stage.

winterof79 Yeah Miles away from Northern Scotland wich looked possible Yesterday. IMBY I'm just hoping for baby steps further south, any big ones and this could end up Midlands/South afair lol.

Right I'm going to put a lot of this, it won't be cold enough for snow apart from hills to bed, if the ECM was to be correct. Check out these charts JAN/14/2021, who would have believed this would have dropped close to 10" just NW leeds on low ground! The snow fell and fully settled with the 850s between -1 and -4... With evaporative cooling from heavy precipitation and even with green (modest) 500s, that is all that's needed. Thursday's event is progged to have light/dark blue 500s which is better and really will pull the cold air down from high up dowwn to 2m level in heavy precipitation. Like I've been saying for days somewhere is getting clobbered on Thursday!

Aprege also brings Thursday's snow much further South

Battleground Snow There's a lot of positive output to look at this morning, I think people are just picking out small bits of information rather than blowing their load so early on, with a whole Sunday ahead of us for discussing the weather lol. As you say ECM is great, more importantly we have all 3 big models singing off the same hymn sheet, GFS Average is insanely good! Yes furthest reaches of FI but you will struggle to find such a good AVG at that range at any time.

blizzard81 Have you seen the output, Thursdays low is being dragged further south kicking and screaming . Heavy snow Thursday still very much on the cards for some! Never trust output when the position of a low is concerned 120 hours out.

Ali1977 Wow woke up to the big 3 all looking very good! Gfs and Ukmo have Thursdays low further south, but still more adjustment needed to bring Northern England/Midlands into play. Ecm is perfect, but at the extreme end of the spectrum so far for having the low further south. I expect some more adjustments south on GFS and UKMO over next 72 hours, I just hope not too much lol.

Just as people were writing off next week, the ECM pulls a rabbit out the hat Even Keeps us in the game regarding Thursday!

mountain shadow Surely the lessons should have been learnt with the last fiasco, where the low headed down to France!

Lukesluckybunch Heavy snow as far south as the North Yorkshire border on this run

LikeI have been saying all day, here you go!! The low is further south and closer to T0, We have progress!

ECM coming out, can it start a trend of bringing Thursdays's low further south, let's see. Excellent post from TEITS, couldn't have put it any better! AO- I know the GEM will have verification stats to back it up but for our little Island, alongside the JMA I have it down as absolutely useless, I've stopped looking at those 2 models.

SLEETY Still I'd take a cold/blocked late februrary/march over zonal everytime! Even in the decades of great winters in the past, you would still get asomewinters that were mild/wet throughout with no snow.

AO- This is exactly why so much emphasis should be placed on a lone GFS OP run

Latest Netweather Strat temp forecast We go from currently To this by 18/02 With the lag maybe the presence of it will be fully felt around 1st March. I can see a very blocked Northern Hemisphere over these parts in March, yes perhaps too late in the day for that pristine powder snow that lasts days, but can still get some cracking snowfalls/events.

Lukesluckybunc Yeah it's looking doubtful now, still can't be written off 100% just yet though.