Harsh Climate

Not here in West Yorkshire. Up until the winter of 2010 winters sucked here two, in the 15 previous years I barely saw a single dusting of snow.. Now every other year I seem to be getting one or two good falls of snow! (6-10'') falls. And that's only at 200/300ft ASL I believe winters come in cycles, I believe we are in a more wintry cycle now. Forget global warming there is also melting of icebergs and polar ice into the Atlantic ocean, that alone could eventually cause our winters to cool down, let alone the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, but that is a different story.

Considering the chase started around 22nd December, this could be the longest chase in the history of Netweather. Plenty of toys to be thrown out of prams and that's before any snow potential where there will be winners and losers right down to <T12

Some absolute peaches in the assembles

At 222h looks excellent to me?

I think any deep cold was always reserved for that timeframe 14/15th, which ties in perfectly with Met Office long range forecast.

Sorry to hear about your loss, puts things into perspective. look forward to hearing you post again, hopefully some snowy charts in the not too distant future!

Great point that, I remember an Easterly in January years ago where up to a foot of snow was forecast, after a week of heavy snow we ended up with only a couple inch of slush because even though air temps where around freezing the ground was too warm and melted the snow from below! Preceding the easterly we had no frosts only milder weather.

Too early to call mate, models are only just starting to get to grips with upcoming pattern change. ''There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.'' That will always be the case on our tiny island!

Unusual set up on this GFS 6z run, almost as if heights towards Greenland and the north of us are being built from the south up rather than the conventional way of WAA up the left hand side inflating a blocking high! Let's hope the GFS is onto something here, would gradually turn colder from the east with a strengthening block to the north and west.

If we was to compare like for like the GFs 6z is a big improvement than the 00z, can't ask for much more!

If there is one positive I can find on this run compared to 00z, The blocking high is centered a few hundred miles further north than 00z run. Correction, at 204h several hundred miles further north!

GFS 6z already coming out and looking worse than 00z even at 138h This low being projected further east of southern Greenland does not help matters at all early/mid range! We need it less apparent or more favourably sucked up left hand side of Greenland.

Just look at the GFS assembles over the last day or so, there are lots of deep cold/snowy nirvana clusters! Every cluster is certainly a possibility to one degree or another.

I think It's going to be a slow burner Have many of us got the patience and stamina though?

I hear some talk of the SSW not happening now, but Shawly this shows it as still happening? Is the problem that we don't get the full vortex split down to all levels of the atmosphere, rather than a SSW not happening at all. Slightly encouraging end to SSW forecast run this morning does start to show signs of a vortex split happening but much delayed from what was previously forecast We may have to play the long long game, with something very wintry in February rather than in January.

I think the biggest risk will be the block been too far SouthEast with the deep cold affecting the low countries, while milder air pushes around the NW flank of our blocking high. Which could eventually topple over and leaving us is a more milder/mobile flow of air. This is a long long way away at the moment so I'm giving it little credence, even if we are about to head into the freezer the models especially the GFS love playing with this notion and predicting an overly aggressive return to Atlantic driven weather. Also if that was to happen who's to say its not temporary with a huge reload/ next bite of cherry just around the corner? Just we must look at all the options on the table so those showing a less favourable outcome should not be discounted. Its always a possibility. In my opinion blocked/ cold for mid/late January is the form horse probably 70/30 in favour.

From a quick scan at the charts this morning it looks like any deep cold to the UK will come from a reload, second bite of the cherry. Was hoping there was a possibility of it coming in the first attempt, but less likely now from overnight data. That is if we are actually going to get deep cold at all, I am just going on overnight data so plenty of scope for change.

Yeah this is the poor version we have seen tonight on ECM. Like I said earlier it all depends on where this low to the southwest of Greenland goes and how much pressure it places on the western side of our blocking high We really need this to be sucked up the western side of Greenland or at least stay to the left. Otherwise we end up with the ECM 00z solution!

I think there could be an easterly dragged in, doesn't look bad

Ecm has it cold in eastern areas as early as 6th! Could be an upgrade that alone

No need to worry this early, look at P2 gfs 12z at 144h, looked rubbish but turned into a belter

P29 has the most potent northerly ever

P4 isn't bad neither

I think one thing that is certain, this is going to be the longest chase in the history of Net Weather! A week in and we are still at least a week away from anything notable happening

Excellent run, has us in fun and games by the 8th rather than needing 2 or 3 bites at the cherry which looked likely yesterday!