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Kentish Man

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    Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

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  1. Last night's 12z GFS forecasted 0C minimums in my area early next week - now up to 4C at the lowest as the true artic blast (as so often) heads further east in the latest models. Quite happy about that as late frosts are potentially very damaging but it also suggests it was unwise of some broadcast forecasters to over-egg the pudding too early. Of course things can change but I'm struggling to think of many occasions in the past where once a northerly downgrade kicks off it goes into reverse.
  2. It's not the first time the forecast for "southern counties" is a bit off to put it kindly. If you listened to BBC forecasters bleating how this would be a much better week last Sunday you'd be forgiven for wondering why this is possibly going to turn out the wettest week of all down here just without the wind.
  3. I think with just 5 weeks to go and no signs of a SSW we can formally write off 2019/20 and consign it to the list of rubbish post 1987 winters from a cold viewpoint. Add in the endless rain apart from this last week of almost as miserable AC gloom then it becomes what I would consider as one of the top 3 worst winters of that period
  4. Thanks. Can I just ask in layman's terms what implications this might have here in the UK?
  5. All fair points but nevertheless I'd argue we've been unlucky in not having more cold incursions in the Christmas/New Year period when more people are at home to enjoy them. 78/79 is the only outstanding example I can think of since the 1970(?) Xmas snowfall.. You could be right about 2009/10 as well but statistically you'd expect more than 2 in 49 years!
  6. Oh whoopee a Bartlett high nicely ensconced at 7 -10 days on ECM. In the south the Christmas/New Year period has consistently disappointed right back to 1978/79 when we had a dramatic Boxing Day snowstorm. Even in 1981 and 2010 the cold was running out of steam by late Dec. With people off work it's a better time for snow and cold than later in the winter when we need to get to work/school etc .
  7. A spell of relatively benign weather would indeed be welcome after the deluge in many parts of the country. However I'm not going to spend much time studying the synoptics of the upcoming broad westerly type in winter mainly because it is the default type in the UK. In winter I'm looking for an incursion of cold north-westerlies, north-easterlies even a cold short sea track south easterly anything really that varies from the boring Atlantic drudge we have had so much of in winters since 1988 bar a few notable long lasting cold spells such as in December 2010.
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