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oldsnowywizard

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  1. I have been a member for a long time.. i dont post that much as I live in Switzerland..however my years of chasing the snow flake for the UK keeps me tapped in to the daily charts, forecasts, wishes, arguments and let downs. I am exceptionally disappointed with the childish undetone and verbal rants of some of the posters (some who should know better). You all are exceptionally lucky to have people on here who provide their THOUGHTS regularly on their OPINION of what COULD happen. They might be RIGHT, they might be WRONG... but they make this forum interesting becuase they are taking their time to give everyone ideas, knowledge and experience. Please have RESPECT for posters and do not start to antagonize becuase something didnt go the way they said. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. A huge thanks to the members for their contributions over the years
  2. There are too many people on here trying to stir.. its not fair for newbies and not fair on those posters who spend their time providing us with thoughts and considerations.. this is the model discussion thread not a thread for .."the gfs is better or has this nailed" we are dealing with computers interpreations of data.. the charts you see are not handed down by mother nature and therefore not going to be correct all the time. Seriosuly i would ban most of the posts on here this morning. Wake up enjoy the snow coffee and potential you have and stick to the thread. Im not a mod but i have been a member for many years and ita horrid to see how this thread is tainted sometimes. OSW out.. ( sorry mods but it had to be said)
  3. According to the BBC Ian McCaskill sadly passed away :-( Sorry as off topic but He is up with the weather gods now :-) RIP Ianhttp://www.bbc.com/news/uk-38294661 Sorry I realised im about 3 hours to late.. Sorry mods please delete as appropriate!
  4. Nothing for a while on here.. i think that having the cold bottled up in the arctic was a good start to winter... i guess we shall see what happens come april when the rollercoaster starts to go downhill...
  5. There is a separate thread for antarctic discussions...global ice I guess can be discussed here ? Widespread -10 showing up at the end of the week and clearly the cold is building up...We should see increases within the week. No heat spikes on dmi yet which is a little strange ..is there no heat in the ocean or is it unable to get released at the moment ?
  6. That further impresses me about the current conditions... I'm also amazed at the difference between 2012 and 2013...One more repeat and the ice extent levels would be back up to late 90s levels... response to 357 ..sorry Ps loving the high tech chat on here but can we link this a little more to the Arctic ice :-)
  7. Tbh I wasn't expecting ice to start plateauing out this early.. If you look at the sst anomalies you will see lots of reds indicating quite large temp differences...This should indicate that ice growth would be very restricted..perhaps as the anomaly maps are based on an average over years..maybe 30,20 or even 10 years ago these areas would be ice covered and therefore it stands to reason the ssts anomalies are higher as there is no ice ? Anyway I'm sure there is a debate about that ... ? In any case temps are indeed dropping on a daily basis and no warm incursions forecast at the moment... could this be a good recovery after all? Despite the milder winter last year, despite the poor ice state? Let's hope so and let's hope for a cold Winter up there ! ( if Russia turns of the gas I think everyone would prefer a mild winter )
  8. The low you are talking about is in a different place on the ECMWF.. it isnt unusual at this time to see some low pressures... they should move the ice, destroy some, stack some replenish some with snow and help to use up some of the latent heat in the water.. so all in all good and bad points about lows at this time of year... you are asking a lot for the ice to drop to 2007/11 levels now.. different synoptics for those years and more widespread warmth.. this year more widespread -5 and some -10s starting to show up on the models.. I would imagine we will start to plateau out starting from 1st sep and then the rise will start around the 25th.. I would imagine just around the 5mil mark will be the min..
  9. GS there are dipoles and there are dipoles.. I dont see a strong dipole with strong winds pushing ice out as was the case in other years... there will continue to be melt but I agree with the thoughts in the AIS update, rather later in the season than earlier.. I see another week before temps start dropping more widely to 0 and below.. the key for me will be the ssts now and how long it takes for the warmth to disappear. I can see a later than normal min ice date due to this factor http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/ICE/daily/n20140808.ic.gif compare the charts here and we are in a surprising position compared to the last few years... yes GW 80s charts blah blah but another step at least in the right direction.. considering the winter, where we are is even more surprising to me.. if you look at 2012 for example there was no 95% and above concentrated ice at all.. so in that respect not bad at all...
  10. Why make it an us and them debate everytime? You make it sound like it's a gang and anyone not in your gang is wrong? Temps will start to drop more around 0 now even with the warmer plus 5S at 850s ... bottom melt will keep going of course for a month or two.. expect to see more refreeze in the main pack Atlantic side especially... of note is that despite the colder air being over the USA rather than the arctic for most of last winter the ice still has not melted out as expected at the moment...time appears to be on our side... I'm not saying the dropping will stop of course..but compare images of 2014 with 2013 and 2012 and you can see the ice appears to be more concentrated
  11. Born you seem to be getting grumpy and always snipe at others...can you go back to posting factual and balanced posts please .. Thank you... on a positive note for once ... ice thickness is better than 2013 and 12. The warmer air doesn't appear to have damaged too much ice. ..let's hope the colder air moves back over the basin ...
  12. would imagine with a shattered pack at least there would be less melt water on the surface of the ice...could be one small positive... anyway.. nsidc now over last year... for how long who knows.. at least some cold areas, in fact according to DMI we should already be above 0 above 80degrees...(comparing to the average for DMI data of course)... they should be gone in two weeks and then we have late june and most of july where by the arctic should warm up above 0..how much this aids melt.. who knows ... it looks like warmer SSTS having more of an impact so far... low pressure systems for the next week or so should help stop solar melt a little bit... the one year ice will go pretty quickly in July.. we just hope that the multiyear fairs a little better.. stewfox... if memory serves there is a post by with Steve murr or one of the other regulars who described how to work out the 2m temps...
  13. The whole link is written clearly by a warm fan... every other word is warm and has reference to eveything that can lead to ice melt.... in any case the chart posted does show a drop but not sure its anything other than normal at some point during the next few months to see this level of drop.. you just have to look at the 2012 red line to see an area the size of france go....just to note other sites dont show quite the same drop level... iJIS and NSIDC... but maybe it will show up on these tomorrow or in the coming days... Just to point out that DMI seems to show a nice below average kink in the upward line...The ice doesnt look too great around the fringes... only 4 months to go and counting... lets see how it fairs.. more low pressure and cloud needed i think...
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