mcweather

Nice one Bobby dog a clear antidote to all the worrying about the PV possibly getting established over Greenland.

As ever Tamara, a sensible and balanced post looking at the much bigger picture. For sure it is that bigger picture that we have to look at to get us to some genuinely wintry weather. The ideas from yourself and Matt Hugo about late December for a possible pattern change to cold have for me always been the ones which were most likely. I thinks perhaps we have been spoilt by Dec2010 especially here in the south. ( It was the coldest December since at least 1879 in south and east Dorset!) into thinking that cold should arrive on the first of December. Never a likely scenario with our geographical position in the world. Year and years of winter weather watching have taught me that patience is the key and now that we are getting to know so much more about how the strat, SAI etc have on shaping our winters it will be interesting to how the signs and signals playout and the global seasonal models unravel. The current holding patterns will have to be got through but come the middle of December I think some very interesting synoptics could start to show up.

Look forward to it with great Interest Steve.

very best of luck with the forecast BFTP. I'd take that anytime. I like the idea of 18/19th Feb for a Blizzard as it will be the 37th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 78 in the southwest.

Hi Kimb A genuine cold shot is unlikely to arrive before December, there are plenty of things happening in the arctic with the polar vortex which suggest that cold will get to us but these things have a lag time between them happening up there and their consequences down the line for us.

A great deal of common sense in Chionos post I think perhaps because the OPI did so well from a cold and snow lovers point coming in at its second lowest ever reading many thought this meant that we would see signs of deep cold almost immediately, this was never going to be the case. The boxing analogy that Snowking has used in his posts is probably the best way of looking at what is happening to the vortex and even if does park over Greenland for a short while this doesn't mean that it is not continuing to take major hits, by the time we get into December the vortex will be pretty punch drunk and starting to fall to pieces it is then that we could realistically expect something that may bring cold and /or snow to our latitudes. My advice is to hold tight be patient and pay particular attention to the posts from Chiono, Snowking, Recretos, Tamara, Blue army, Nick Sussex and of course Mr Murr because it is from these that we will be able to build the best picture of what is likely to happen and believe me it could be very good indeed.

In light of Ian F posting last night that the meto see nothing cold from any output out to 15 days, it is always refreshing to see the one of the models they use turn round and bite them on the bum. lol However we have seen the ECM do this at 240 before only for it to go up in smoke, if the same chart or one very like it comes within 7 days then we might be talking. Having said that, the background signals are far more conducive to such a chart than they were last winter so the ECM may be on to something. The strat thread is proving a seriously fascinating read with black holes now appearing on the anomaly charts over the arctic regions. Good to see TEITS posting again too.

I,m with you Chiono there is no point getting the' holy grail' now We just need to keep sseing the vortex under attack and weakening so that we can then decimate it with wave 2 trop led wave breaking during december that way we could get a really cold winter overall instead of just an early spell and not much else like 2010/11.

Much though I have immense respect for the Met office and all the work they do, their forte is short to medium term forecasting which is what they are paid mostly to do. They will almost never say anything too exciting about cold and snow until it is nailed on within seven days. Even back in Nov 2010 when this place was going nuts as the ensemble graphs showed temperatures falling off a cliff the Met office medium range forecasts were worded extremely cautiously in terms of ''possiibly turning colder later in the period with an increased chance of showers turning to snow in the north and east'' The experienced members on here could all see what was going to happen but the Met office with a national reputation to protect will always err on the side of caution especially with likes of the Daily express and James Madden willing to snipe at every opportunity.

2009 John. An admittedly small sample field but a 100% correlation none the less. LOL

Hi Chiono, Am I right in thinking that the even better hieghts in the arctic you refer to make it more likely that December will be an intriguing month in a wintery sense.

No he tends to leave that sort of thing to Ian Brown

Crikey I didn't realise Ian Brown had a son called Troy.

Ah yes The Madden of Mild. Does anyone else remember his Anglo saxon four letter word moment a few winters back when after telling us there was no way a cold scenario could develop (despite it being obvious to most of the rest of us that it would) the charts then went into cold and snow territory. What deep joy that brought.

Yes that's true but it does tend to lead to winters with substantial spells of cold/and or snowy weather, whether the winter is cold overall or not.

Thanks Snowking and I do take your point and the CET-OPI relationship is a fascinating one. I think what I wasrather clumsily trying to get across is that CET is not a great way of showing what the weather actually was, just what the average temps were and that can quite misleading in that in an average CET month the actual weather may have been anything but average.

Just a couple of points. Number 1 Why the obsession with CET in relationship to cold weather brought about in negative OPI winters? One could have a mild first two weeks of January a cold and snowy second two weeks which continued into the first two weeks of feb before a mild second two weeks in feb. You would have had a very significant spell of wintery weather. which would tie in with the negative OPI suggestion of colder weather regimes. Yet official CET records used by Metetorologists would register two average months whereas the rest of us would be talking about the amazing month long cold and snowy spell . In other words the real weather as opposed to the statistics Number 2 The way I view a Negative OPI below -1.5 is that it equates to an atmosphere more predisposed to allow cold set ups to affect the UK. So this time round with a sub -2 OPI , although in the UK ,cold weather is never 'in the bag' until it's 'in the bag'. This year we have a bag that is being held open and the right way up whereas last year we didn't even have a bag.

A really well reasoned piece of work Steve. I look forward to your final winter forecast later in November.

Here's a thing. We all know that even in mild winters the usual suspects can still get snow often due to being close to windwards coasts or altitude. But what about a relatively snow free location like mine in Central south Dorset? Looking back through the OPI table for the last 36 years every one of the years with a reading of minus 1 or below has produced a spell/spells of heavy snow and/or intense cold. Sometimes we didn't even need to get as low as minus 1. The great Blizzard of Feb 1978 in southwest England came on the back of and OPI of-0.95 for October 1977 and even a reading of -0.85 in October 2010 was followed by the coldest December on record in much of Dorset. So I for one am certainly looking forward as we home in on a sub minus 2 OPI. It will be a good test.

To be fair Mapantz I cross referenced all the years with a with an OPI number greater ( more negative than minus one) and found a very good correlation for worthwhile snowfall in Dorset,

Yes cloud ten and the the weds12z cfs 9 month run reflects that with some cracking daily charts from the 8th Dec onwards, would be looking at a christmas snowfest if that lot came off. here's hoping.

I work outdoors but I would take three months of frost and snow over three months like last winter anytime.

Quite a lot of lightning and heavy rain here at Broadmayne in the past hour Mapantz

Oh yes please I remember it well, trrudging past moonlit 6 foot snowdrifts in the Purbeck hills. Fabulous.

Ah yes I remember it well Mapantz 6th January 2010 the day of the Great red level ( its definitely coming you must take action kind) Met office warning of 12-18 inches of snow for Dorset . Schools closed early people were sent home from work. not a single flake fell possibly one of the greatest Met office fails on record.