mcweather

As if to take the p### even more the GFS now gives us a Murr sausage in the medium range. Something to be taken with a lorry load of salt. Perhaps one of the lorry loads of salt that the councils will have left over having boutght it in based on the Met office forecast of a blocked December with winds from the east or North.

The last couple of days have been interesting with the operational models showing some stellar runs in terms of a mid march cold/snowy/snap/spell. However one has to wonder given the relatively poor performance of all the models in the mid/longer range this winter whether they are just flattering to deceive us coldies once more. I,m afraid I am far from convinced by the wintry output at the moment. But then who can blame me after all it was only a few weeks ago that ECM had all 51 ensemble members on board for something special which then turned out to be something exceptionally ordinary. I hope for all our cold/snow loving members that one of these spectacular mid march runs is on the money but I am not holding my breath until they are still showing at T48.

mmm the ECM 12z has a channel low moving into a cold airstream that could bring some fun and games for someone. couldn't be more different to its 00z output.

The late winter eye candy on the gfs operationals may have taken its leave for the time being but I'd be very wary of writing off a cold and/or snowy spell just yet there are a worthwhile number of ensembles on the the 12z 850's dropping down between minus 5 and minus 10 to keep it out there as an option. yes next week will feel positively springlike but anything beyond the next 7 days is pure speculation . IMO

I see the GFS 12z operational has now even robbed us of the eye candy that was appearing post 300hrs. Let us hope that Nick F is right in his well thought out and composed post.

Hi Barmada-Casten. This is one of the best posts I have ever read in my many years following Netweather, It should be pinned to the top of every model discussion thread throughout the winter season.

Snowed all morning here at Broadmayne. Sounds good doesn't it? until I tell you it was at a rate of about fifty flakes per minute. Its amazing how things can sound good until the detail is revealed, reminds me of the spell back end of Feb 2005 when it snowed on 12 consecutive days at my location, (the most since 1963) except of course that it was all flurries that never settled. amazing what statistics quoted out of context can suggest.

judging by most British winters just about everything. lol

Well I'm glad I didn't hang my hat on the current cold snap being anything more substantial. While it is always exciting to see the Scandi high appearing in forecasts. Unless the positioning is just right and the genoa low is sturdy the high nearly always slips away southeastwards or simply morphs into mid latitude high. As more learned posters have already pointed out the genuine article is a rare beast indeed. Looking forward I have not yet completely given up on a decent cold/snowy spell between now and mid march and with the jet practically non-existent there is always the chance of some unusual or unexpected developments but at the same time I'm not holding my breath.

yes Iceberg and the meto has that profile at 144 rather than 236 as on the gfs

Seen enough this afternoon to call it an upgrade in the reliable. no point at all looking beyond 144 at the moment because the model that has called it right all winter the Meto only goes out that far (publicly) and it looks the best of the lot again today.

Indeed the charts are not suggesting an 1991or1987 repeat at the moment to be honest I have never expect them to firm up to something like that but as Matt has also said in his tweet ' 'details yet to be determined' and I can no reason for there not to be the odd kink or disturbance in the flow that could give some worth while regional or local falls. as ever this will not become clear until probably t24 for any given instance. In the mean time let us rejoice that an end to the past weeks wind rain is in sight.

Superb post S4lancia I find this forum really strange sometimes. Tonights ECM 240 chart is something we would have killed for all through winter. There is cross model agreement on an easterly outbreak. Something members were saying we had to get but never got in advance of the previous cold spell. Now we have have it in the reliable time frame. Members are looking something else to scupper it before its even begun. The runs are bound to change in emphasis as they come out and Dday gets closer. Remember our more learned members have suggested that this could be a two bites scenario and that would certainly tie in with the Met office thinking of later in Feb being the time for something notably cold. In the meantime try not to get too downhearted about the uppers only reaching minus 9 across southern England later next week.

ECM whilst disappointing compared to last nights classic is really just showing a slower evolution which ties in with the Met office thinking with any real cold more likely to arrive later in the month. I,m always wary when the classic charts are a 168nplus rather than 96-120. Hence my warning about not getting carried away yesterday evening. It could still come good but may take a bit longer than was suggested yesterday

Well I'm usually very excited to see charts like the one appearing in the mid term, however. The story of the winter so far is one of the ECM showing 1947esque charts at 240 only to lead us up the garden path as to the exact location of the cold pool a few days later so I am firmly on the fence on this one. I very much hope that for all the cold and snow lovers on the forum that something akin to what is being shown by the gfs and ecm comes off but I urge you not to hang your hats on this yet. Unless the Met office extended outlook replaces the words 'low chance' for very cold weather later in feb with something a lot more substantial then I'd be very very wary about letting the GFS or ECM flatter to deceive us yet again this winter.

Yes that's about the sum of it Nick. A return to our normal westerly Atlantic driven muck. Probably best for cold/snow lovers to take this chance to have a week or so away from the models in the hope that come mid Feb something more appetizing may be on offer. That's certainly what I intend to do.

Bearing in mind Fergies tweet this morning about the ECM ends having six equally matched clusters as early 120 I would be very wary at writing off any outcome at the moment.

Not really MP-R Seasonality's description is a pretty good analogy of the U.K. Climate which is on the whole a mild maritime one with our weather coming at us on a west to east track off the Atlantic. Yes the text books may say we can be affected by six different airmass types but the reality is the ones from the west or southwest or south will always largely out weigh those from the north, east or southeast in any given year. Which of course is the reason that this place goes into meltdown when a sustained flow from the north or east is shown. Fergie often mentions in his posts about the longer range models returning to climatology and our climatology is without question a mild maritime one and that climatolgy means the dice are very much loaded against sustained cold and snow especially in lowland Britain. Which Is why despite being in my late fifties I can count the genuinely long cold and/or snowy periods in my life on the fingers of two hands.

Sadly the 00z Gfs continues the much advertised return to a mobile Atlantic based theme fo the final week of January. Beyond that who knows.

Nice Easterly over Shetland at 240 on the ECM hopefully it will verify a good deal further south like the one we were supposed to be getting this coming week.

No disrespect intended BA but That's an interesting concept . I wonder how far south an easterly bound for the UK goes before its no longer an easterly bound for the UK

These are presumably the same ens that gave full 51 member support to the full on easterly a day or so back. mmmmmmmmm

I wonder if the METO have a different feeling about things. Model wise . John Hammond on the latest BBC week ahead going for the possible return of cold northerlies next weekend.

Well I did actually see some snowflakes yesterday, unfortunately they arrived after six hours of rain and did last long or settle here, however overnight there was a snow shower which froze a smattering on my car this morning and travelling between Dorchester , Yeovil and Bridport today there were the remains of some settled stuff on then higher parts. So at least I have actually seen a kind of snow this winter. Despite the demise of the proposed full on easterly next week, I feel confident that yesterday is not the only snow chance we will get this winter.

I have to concur with Chiono here. There is as IF has also mentioned in a tweet above a good deal of uncertainty in the medium range and beyond, without a super strong jet and a raging vortex in the mix the cold solutions are just as realistic as any other. could it be that the strat will come riding over the horizon to save the day cement those' building blocks of potential' into something special.