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Everything posted by mcweather

  1. Hi Barmada-Casten. This is one of the best posts I have ever read in my many years following Netweather, It should be pinned to the top of every model discussion thread throughout the winter season.
  2. Snowed all morning here at Broadmayne. Sounds good doesn't it? until I tell you it was at a rate of about fifty flakes per minute. Its amazing how things can sound good until the detail is revealed, reminds me of the spell back end of Feb 2005 when it snowed on 12 consecutive days at my location, (the most since 1963) except of course that it was all flurries that never settled. amazing what statistics quoted out of context can suggest.
  3. Well I did actually see some snowflakes yesterday, unfortunately they arrived after six hours of rain and did last long or settle here, however overnight there was a snow shower which froze a smattering on my car this morning and travelling between Dorchester , Yeovil and Bridport today there were the remains of some settled stuff on then higher parts. So at least I have actually seen a kind of snow this winter. Despite the demise of the proposed full on easterly next week, I feel confident that yesterday is not the only snow chance we will get this winter.
  4. I was sad to see the OPI get a bit of a kicking after having created quite a bit of excitement last Autumn. Unfortunately in our got to have it now world everyone wants the finished article straight away. I always viewed it as a work in progress and hopefully the Riccardo and his chums can hone the theory somewhat. The comment about sample size are valid and so it will only be as we go forward that we will see if the OPI can improve it's performance.
  5. Great to see this thread up and running. There is much to be gleaned in terms of longer range forecasting through the teleconnections and atmospheric drivers that the like of Tamara, Vorticity and the much missed GP tried to interpret on our behalf.
  6. Just for a bit of fun. The OPI has proved successful for my location. every sub -1.5 year has produced at least one decent covering of snow in my backyard and it has yet again this winter. So I am very happy and will be following it again with interest next year.
  7. Have to say I have some sympathy with this view. I have the utmost respect for Ian F and the meto in general but The Met office medium range forecasts did not really pick up on either of the coldsnaps/spells so far and seem to have been talking about pressure rising to the south of the UK for an eternity and yet here we are with a euro trough. As far a I can remember the medium range forecast at the beginning of January didn't actually mention the S word at all and certainly not disruptive S. Again with the greatest respect to Ian F and his colleagues I take little notice of the meto medi
  8. I agree with you there Iceberg, based on this run even I might see some snow next weekend
  9. Some interesting little features crossing the south west of England in -5 850's and sub 528 thicknesses next weekend on this GFS run.
  10. Before the 12z's roll out lets look at what we have, well we have a progged northerly next weekend first picked up by GFS then joined by ECM and then very shortly after that by the METO. We are told that we cannot believe anything unless we have cross model agreement. Yet the cross model agreement on a change to cold at that range is pretty impressive. Reminiscent to a certain extent of the cross model agreement in Nov 2010 albeit for a different cold scenario. Much to be excited about really ( despite the musings of some battle weary model watchers) Such an unstable northerly would
  11. Just to pick up on some posts from the previous thread regarding climate drivers and teleconnections. It is obvious that they don't have any relevance in modern forecasting.............. this must be why the Met office chief forecaster and his team spent over an hour discussing their likely effects for February yesterday morning. The OPI did not forecast a long bitter snowy winter for the UK or Europe,weatherwise it forecast a winter in which arctic incursions would be more likely in the last two thirds of the winter ( which seems pretty much to be happening). There is obviously
  12. A very interesting post Tamara and one that has me wondering about the possibilities of a Feb 1978 Scenario developing as the month progresses.
  13. With yet another putting off of the proposed Atlantic insurgence towards the end of the week. One can't help but get just the inkling of a feeling that the bigger picture mentioned by the likes of Chiono and Tamara may just be starting to be heard as a stronger signal above the chaos of Atmospheric white noise in the current modelling. I would not be at all surprised if we start seeing some 1947esque synoptics popping up in FI over the coming week of model watching. To me this week has all the hallmarks of a minor skirmish prior to a much bigger event.
  14. Quite so Ian. It will be interesting to see how things pan out after the current colder spell of weather, I really thinks at the moment anything beyond seven days has to be taken with a large pinch of salt rather like you suggested the other night regarding a quick Atlantic return.
  15. Hi Ian It was in a tweet from a fellow professional meteorologist! Still all water under the bridge now.
  16. Ah yes the The ECM 32 dayer the same model that had an extreme high pressure anomaly over Greenland for January back in late December. The words Chocolate and fireguard spring to mind. With the polar vortex being bounced and stretched around in all sorts of different ways, I think that this winter is one where anything beyond about 7 days really is fantasy forecasting.
  17. Latest from Fergie in Model thread; A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)..
  18. I always find in these situations with a wide spread its best to take the middle ground solution, so that'll be the south coast of England then. Crikey that's where I live. LOL
  19. Here's the latest tweet from someone who obviously spends a great deal of time looking at the models, quite of lot of which we don't have access too. Ian Fergusson @fergieweather · 2h 2 hours ago W COUNTRY CONT'D...with temperatures generally below average & occasional N'ly bias to winds. Frost/ice/some snow possible into 6-15d period
  20. Most recent tweet from Fergie Ian Fergusson @fergieweather · 2h 2 hours ago W COUNTRY CONT'D...with temperatures generally below average & occasional N'ly bias to winds. Frost/ice/some snow possible into 6-15d period
  21. Hi Terrier. I can see where you're coming from with this. The met office are rightly cautious because they have a national reputation to protect and one that will be mercilessly torn apart by a meteorologically illiterate media. However this caution also plays against them because in the years that I have been following the weather on the internet. There hasn't been a single cold or snowy outbreak that they have eventually mentioned in their medium term outlook that wasn't blindingly obvious to experienced model watchers on this forum and TWO well before it ever made it into print on the M
  22. Actually terrier the tweet says, late January not the end of January and seeing as the 20th January could be classed as late January it actually fits in quite well with what the ecm and gfs are trending towards.
  23. I Is that a snow event for southern England on the 12z GFS P that I can see?
  24. The GFS model has certainly shown up some interesting wintry possibilities ( and that is all they are at the moment, possibilities) in FI over the last few days. It will be interesting if a, It keeps displaying these possibilties b, Brings them inside the 240 range c, if it manages to get to point b then will the ECM start displaying such possibilties? Getting a half decent cold spell to the UK is always like pulling teeth. So I think its a case of coldies having to keep everything crossed.
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