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  • Gender
  • Location
    Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Interests
    Historical meteorology. Global climate drivers.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.

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  1. As if to take the p### even more the GFS now gives us a Murr sausage in the medium range. Something to be taken with a lorry load of salt. Perhaps one of the lorry loads of salt that the councils will have left over having boutght it in based on the Met office forecast of a blocked December with winds from the east or North.
  2. The last couple of days have been interesting with the operational models showing some stellar runs in terms of a mid march cold/snowy/snap/spell. However one has to wonder given the relatively poor performance of all the models in the mid/longer range this winter whether they are just flattering to deceive us coldies once more. I,m afraid I am far from convinced by the wintry output at the moment. But then who can blame me after all it was only a few weeks ago that ECM had all 51 ensemble members on board for something special which then turned out to be something exceptionally or
  3. mmm the ECM 12z has a channel low moving into a cold airstream that could bring some fun and games for someone. couldn't be more different to its 00z output.
  4. The late winter eye candy on the gfs operationals may have taken its leave for the time being but I'd be very wary of writing off a cold and/or snowy spell just yet there are a worthwhile number of ensembles on the the 12z 850's dropping down between minus 5 and minus 10 to keep it out there as an option. yes next week will feel positively springlike but anything beyond the next 7 days is pure speculation . IMO
  5. I see the GFS 12z operational has now even robbed us of the eye candy that was appearing post 300hrs. Let us hope that Nick F is right in his well thought out and composed post.
  6. Hi Barmada-Casten. This is one of the best posts I have ever read in my many years following Netweather, It should be pinned to the top of every model discussion thread throughout the winter season.
  7. Snowed all morning here at Broadmayne. Sounds good doesn't it? until I tell you it was at a rate of about fifty flakes per minute. Its amazing how things can sound good until the detail is revealed, reminds me of the spell back end of Feb 2005 when it snowed on 12 consecutive days at my location, (the most since 1963) except of course that it was all flurries that never settled. amazing what statistics quoted out of context can suggest.
  8. Well I'm glad I didn't hang my hat on the current cold snap being anything more substantial. While it is always exciting to see the Scandi high appearing in forecasts. Unless the positioning is just right and the genoa low is sturdy the high nearly always slips away southeastwards or simply morphs into mid latitude high. As more learned posters have already pointed out the genuine article is a rare beast indeed. Looking forward I have not yet completely given up on a decent cold/snowy spell between now and mid march and with the jet practically non-existent there is always the chance of s
  9. Well I did actually see some snowflakes yesterday, unfortunately they arrived after six hours of rain and did last long or settle here, however overnight there was a snow shower which froze a smattering on my car this morning and travelling between Dorchester , Yeovil and Bridport today there were the remains of some settled stuff on then higher parts. So at least I have actually seen a kind of snow this winter. Despite the demise of the proposed full on easterly next week, I feel confident that yesterday is not the only snow chance we will get this winter.
  10. Always an enjoyable read as this thread gets going each Autumn and the hopes and fears of cold and snow enthusiasts are aired. Very interesting post from Steve Murr earlier in the thread, will be interesting to see how things pan out in that regard. My gut feeling this year is that High pressure will play a significantly bigger roll than the last three winters, The exact positioning of course will be the crucial thing. The ECM seasonal is certainly hopefull at the moment the Glosea not quite as cheery for coldies but lets face it a half way house between the those two would be
  11. I was sad to see the OPI get a bit of a kicking after having created quite a bit of excitement last Autumn. Unfortunately in our got to have it now world everyone wants the finished article straight away. I always viewed it as a work in progress and hopefully the Riccardo and his chums can hone the theory somewhat. The comment about sample size are valid and so it will only be as we go forward that we will see if the OPI can improve it's performance.
  12. Great to see this thread up and running. There is much to be gleaned in terms of longer range forecasting through the teleconnections and atmospheric drivers that the like of Tamara, Vorticity and the much missed GP tried to interpret on our behalf.
  13. Just for a bit of fun. The OPI has proved successful for my location. every sub -1.5 year has produced at least one decent covering of snow in my backyard and it has yet again this winter. So I am very happy and will be following it again with interest next year.
  14. Have to say I have some sympathy with this view. I have the utmost respect for Ian F and the meto in general but The Met office medium range forecasts did not really pick up on either of the coldsnaps/spells so far and seem to have been talking about pressure rising to the south of the UK for an eternity and yet here we are with a euro trough. As far a I can remember the medium range forecast at the beginning of January didn't actually mention the S word at all and certainly not disruptive S. Again with the greatest respect to Ian F and his colleagues I take little notice of the meto medi
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