Matt Jones

One thing is for sure it's going to turn cold by this time tomorrow almost UK wide, but the second blast to me remains doubtful, I would not be surprised to only see a glancing blow followed by a warm up even though the latest GFS remains cold well into it's run presently. Incidentally the near useless met office symbols have heavy snow for NE Lincolnshire first thing tomorrow morning, unsurprisingly no mention in the text forecast!

I suppose it depends on what you define as exceptional, I don't see it as exceptional, just taking my location as probably being 5-6C below it's average for 3 days. Those snow events rarely materialise but can't be ruled out.

I get that but downgrades were always less likely to affect Scotland, yes I think Scotland and northern hills will get some snow.

Missed the 6Z that must have been worse then, the reload is quickly moved away by the High that then sits over us. Certainly cold for this time of year but struggling to see it as exceptional as it looked a few days back.

The downgrades both short term and long term keep coming for cold and snow, looks like a northerly toppler now in comparison to a few days back.

Yes I agree ECM looks colder this morning, I think the 144hrs UKMO chart looked poor for a decent prolonging/reload, and GFS considerably worse for reloading than last nights. I expect to perhaps see some falling sleet/snow here early next week but nothing more, agreed areas further north with elevation will do well. I really wanted to see some more extreme 850's but that was always being greedy! Just viewed GFS 6Z and think that looks a little colder than 0Z.

Some very positive posts regarding wintry weather this morning, to me when I viewed both GFS & UKMO models this morning my immediate thought was a large watering down compared to what I viewed yesterday evening, once the initial short northerly blast is over both models mix the uppers out for any reloads.

I think I only look at meteociel each day to see the nails fall.

What amazes me is how we are simply unable to pull off a potent straight northerly, either goes one way or the other. Suppose we are only a small target but you'd have thought it would hit occasionally. Fair enough it's not a done deal either way but it does become rather predictable.

Had -6.5C first thing this morning, coldest night I can remember here since Dec 2010 when we hit -11C. Come over dark here now with snow in the air.

Coming down in Immingham now, sky gone very red, oh no that's the refinery.

Had a couple of heavy showers today but sounds like just over the other side of the Humber has fared well. Inch at best on grass and some surfaces. Sun has melted most off roads and paths.

I don't think it really matters here the end result is less cold air by Thursday that takes any snow risk away for most. If I can get a covering out of this cold snap I will be happy enough. For me the UKMO 144hr didn't look good yesterday evening or this morning.

Yeah I think I'd back the UKMO model, but who knows.

UKMO looks great, better 850's than this mornings run and maintains a strong easterly wind throughout. Just looked at GFS model not so good though.