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chionomaniac

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Everything posted by chionomaniac

  1. No, as BA has suggested we then need to look at the tropospheric precursors to wave 2 activity and these are looking promising. I would be looking at initially week 3 ( end of) and thereafter for potential, subject to wave 2 activity creating a significant strat event. Without this keep watching because I see a Scandi ridge being a theme this winter.
  2. That was going to be my next point, because it is exactly what we want to see.......
  3. I would say that it is the other way around. Wave 1 displacements are perfect primers for weakening the vortex followed by a wave 2 chop. The wave 1 SSW's as you said are poor for NW Europe and that will still probably be the case without another wave 2 following on behind, and this is where I would be looking for strat PV destruction.
  4. That just shows the extent of warming and not the vortex profile. And it is indicative of a displacement type warming from wave 1, not a wave 2 type split event. And it would still be a bit short. When looking back previously at wave 1 type SSW's there are two types. One, where the vortex loses power, dis[places off the pole but quickly regains strength and recovers the pole position in a relatively short time. The other is rarer and occurs when the warming is so significant that rather than just getting displaced, it is completely destroyed and it takes it a long time to rebuild. It is the latter type of displacement that will have the greater chance of a significant tropospheric response.
  5. If you hadn’t looked at any previous output this autumn (especially FI) and this was the first run you had looked at, then you would say that in the first half of the run the building blocks are in place and it wouldn’t take much for a notable cold spell to develop. That doesn’t change by looking at the second half of the run. It won’t take much to change from retrogressive nothingness to something far better. When the Scandinavian block is in place, then we need to look upstream and get the right split flow from the tip of Greenland to reinforce the block. Small margins that can change in the coming runs. And nice to get rid of the mild drizmable weather of today.
  6. We need to be looking West in these scenarios. At T+168 the potential is still there
  7. chionomaniac

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase Day 2 - WY.NE/CO

    Just had a look at the video I took prior to the one above and have screenshot some lightning photos. Can anyone see the possible tornado a full five minutes before we turned the corner and saw it on our right? Photos 3,6&7 Last photo shows nado on the ground
  8. chionomaniac

    Tour 2 2018

    Hello I have booked on this tour and am really looking forward to it. Are any other NW members booked on - has anyone booked flights yet? Who are the drivers for this tour? Ed
  9. chionomaniac

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase Day 2 - WY.NE/CO

    Here is a video yesterday of the lead up and of the tornado which dropped next to us whilst we were under the meso. sorry about the upside down bit - I was holding 2 devices recording at the time whilst trying to ensure that the tornado didn’t cross our path. On another note, when we noticed that the stream had dropped out the computer needed to be reloaded and then chose to reupdate itself at that critical moment with the signal dropping out. We were in an extremely dangerous position where everyone needed all there wits about them as the radar grab shows.
  10. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    Getting a bit excited now. I leave early tomorrow. I’m cautiously liking the trend in the models with a surface trough building towards the west of the central plains by the weekend. This should allow enough moisture to be sucked up from the GOM. interestingly there is a gfs tornado signature for the first three days happy with that so far
  11. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    I can’t wait. Do you have a list of preferred model sites and essential chasing sites? I probably know most of them but may have lost a few - such as those giving out real time dew points Cheers.
  12. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    Getting excited now. Will be great to meet all the other guests. I am looking forward to seeing some great storm structures- anything more will be a bonus. If there is a chance of a lift from DFW then that would be great! This is my second tour - yet to see a tornado - that would be the icing on the cake. Not keen on chasing in hill billies land in Misery lol
  13. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    I’m hoping for a rinse and repeat a week later!
  14. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    Would probably accept this as a tour starting point, good dew points, lift, instability, and a bit of shear. Could see a dry line storm on a slight risk day. All for FI fun for now of course
  15. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    I’ve been keeping an eye on the charts for the start of the tour and too much inter run variability so far to take anything from it. But time to start watching a bit more eagerly
  16. chionomaniac

    2018 Q&A For Tornado Season

    I will take a medium size case alongside a hand luggage case. I haven’t decided whether to take my tripod or buy a cheap one out there. Here is a great beginners guide to supercells and what to look out for if you are lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time!
  17. chionomaniac

    2018 Q&A For Tornado Season

    It will be well worth getting the RadarScope app and having a little play with it. It’s not satellite linked like I think the barons is, but still gives great data about the forming storms.
  18. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    No. There must be more than one of us lol. But I am the original
  19. chionomaniac

    Tour 1 2018

    Hi all. I mistakenly thought that I was on tour 2, and I had a right panic when I actually read the email from Paul saying that I am on tour 1! Anyway I am all sorted flight wise now and will arrive on the 7th in the evening at 19:53 via Fort Lauderdale. I can’t wait to meet everyone and as far as I am concerned my holiday hasj ust been brought forward by 10 days.
  20. chionomaniac

    Tour 2 2018

    When you think that you are on tour 2 but in reality booked tour 1. Oops what a numpty. Enjoy tour 2 guys, I am moving over to the tour 1 thread lol,
  21. chionomaniac

    Cricket - Summer Season 2015 and onwards

    Ok well I am happy to admit I may be wrong over Lehmann if that is the case. I still believe he is brash and uncouth and should know what members of his team were plotting. He still should have faced the media I still find it difficult to believe that this was an isolated incident and that the bowlers weren’t aware that half the ball had been sandpapered. So another question - where did they get the yellow sandpaper from? Did they go to a DIY store in Cape Town after the previous days play as one would expect if they only thought of it at the time? Or did they have it before the tour started? If they did then that suggests more than an isolated incident and planning to cheat even before the tour started. Something just doesn’t feel right...
  22. chionomaniac

    Cricket - Summer Season 2015 and onwards

    Look at all the tweets posted by the ex cricketers - those in the game know the real score. I suspect that Bancroft put sugar in his pocket during the ashes tour just in case a supporter offered him a cup of tea as well. LOL about the integrity officers - because it is not as if the team hadn't had time to get their story worked out prior to Sutherland's arrival. Warner was reported to have bragged to the English batsmen at the post ashes get together that they had tampered with the ball in the series. I guess all his Australian team mates where out of earshot when that happened too....
  23. chionomaniac

    Cricket - Summer Season 2015 and onwards

    I'm sorry but I just don't buy that. I suspect that the majority of the team knew what was going on but those that didn't approve dared not say anything because the bullying culture was not just limited to opponents... yes Lehmann may have been gagged by CA but if he was not complicit then he should have been sat next to Sutherland today.
  24. chionomaniac

    Cricket - Summer Season 2015 and onwards

    If Lehmann is so innocent why hasn't he faced the press and condemned the cheating that he knew nothing about? Walkie talkie to twelfth man " Go and tell Bancroft that he has been rumbled for cheating that I know nothing about " As if? If he knew nothing about it then he would have been shouting it from the rooftops and at the very least saying how disappointed he was with his team to resort to that. But nothing. Zilch. Nada. Why? Because he knew all along?
  25. chionomaniac

    Cricket - Summer Season 2015 and onwards

    That CA news conference raises more questions than it answers imo. I can’t believe that the leadership group was just the three of them. Bancroft is a rookie after all. When they sent the message onto the field that Bancroft had been rumbled was that really the first time that the others became aware? Did the bowlers not know? And even if Lehmann didn’t know ( which is difficult to believe) surely the coach has responsibilities for the team and should go as well?
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