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Everything posted by chionomaniac

  1. Light snow here now though that is thick enough to give a covering so Hirlam good
  2. Better chances tomorrow night for many along the south coast
  3. Really struggling as to why the SE amber forecast was set to where it is considering no modals that I have looked at suggested that it would occur. It seems that Hirlam precip predictions will be more accurate.
  4. It is what it is lol. And a lot of that is radar watch!
  5. Good to see that this is now occurring. It is the early hours of Sunday that I suspect we will see max precip
  6. You're looking the wrong way..... run the radar
  7. It's a radar watch situation so keep an eye on the backbuild. Some models suggest that you could get lucky!
  8. Keep an eye on that radar Marie. Remember look south and run the frames and you will be pleasantly surprised!
  9. Those on the southern half of East Sussex, West Sussex, and Hampshire don't look NE. Look South for backbuilding from the southern band in the next few hours. That is where any snow is going to come from.
  10. Most models don't suggest a Thames streamer so I don't understand the met office amber warning. More so I see a dynamic situation with snow forming off the Sussex coast, with the formation zones heading NE towards NE Sussex before the whole system pushes west towards the west country. We shall see....
  11. For those on the SE sussex coast keep an eye on the precip in the channel starting to backtrack towards the coast as the precip further north keeps out of our reach.
  12. Got this tweet from a trending site earlier. There is a first for everything, but evidently I am a trendsetter lol!
  13. No plans on splitting the thread over the next few days as it is quieter at the moment.
  14. Thanks, but there is no knocking here. I haven't said that there isn't a trend southwards either. And it isn't off topic but a little tongue in cheek, JS. I hope that you enjoyed your recent snow!
  15. Maybe, maybe not. Though Cork is always the last station on the track whereas easterlies are concerned.
  16. Love these ensemble watch that you provide. I'll ignore the latest one lol. I am terming this one the #minibeastfromtheeast
  17. Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading for the troposphere Who remembers the last 'dry' easterly? Now with a stronger sun...
  18. As medium range forecasting goes, this cold spell was successful, significant and noteworthy. Firstly to achieve such low 850 temps at the end of winter and start of spring was a rare thing indeed. Not everyone achieved the snow amounts that they would have liked from this cold pool, but significantly a number did, we had the red warnings, and deliverance of snow in areas that it is unusual to see (think Scilly Isles, the far SW and Ireland). For once a SSW delivered big style, and, with the nature of the split vortex any medium range forecaster could see it coming from a mile away. For me, even though I didn't receive the amount of snow that I wished for, the low temps, strength of the bitter wind and ice days more than made up for that. So, very notable for me, because it was another time that concentrating on the strat paid dividends in the trop. Normally, we see the VI of the strat verifying well with mild westerlies in a strong jet stream so it was nice to see the reverse occur again.
  19. If you can have freezing sleet then that is what I have here presently. Small flakes of snow that some have melted and rather than become supercooled water droplets have actually frozen into minute ice balls when they arrive at the surface. Makes a pinging noise everywhere. And the moon is shining through!
  20. Tonight has reminded me very much of a summer plume situation where we watch fantastic thunderstorms cross the channel from France but only to lose intensity off the south coast. I guess it can happen in winter too lol!
  21. Heavier stuff seems to be held off the coast in the channel and not proceeding north. You can bet your bottom dollar that it will move north quickly when it changes to rain.
  22. Not a lot to add really. First saw the possibility of a SSW end of December (through classic precursor pattern in trop) - thought it might occur late Jan, but had to wait until 11th Feb - so that forecast proved reasonable. Main thing was how the SSW developed from then. The area of the split was favourable (from Atlantic to Pacific) and by early Feb I could see that the first phase was of the SSW was the destruction of the Siberian vortex. This opened the door for any downwelling to increase the likelihood of height rises to the NE. But also by this time, significantly the second residual strat daughter over Hudson Bay was forecast to take another hit with the second warming (not technically a SSW as you can't have two over a short period). The trop strong daughter vortex extending from Greenland to Canada was curtains from this point onwards and it was only a matter of time. This meant that it could assist in the Scandi block formation through WAA into the Arctic before it too subsided. This was the last piece of the jigsaw falling into place because it allowed the Scandi block to head west and over Greenland assisting the cold Siberian winds to head westwards with it. All this was predicted by the first Sunday in Feb. Hence I remember stating that I was so excited by what the models weren't showing at that point because I suspected that it was only a matter of time until they did - even though the trop models were showing no effective response to the SSW for a while. Not every time will we get such strat activity being very conducive and structured to an expectant trop response, but this was such one of those times, and I have waited many years for this. Happy now that pretty much most of the country has benefitted from the extreme weather that a trop response following a SSW can bring.