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Everything posted by chionomaniac

  1. Early indications suggest a strong autumnal Strat vortex in the coming weeks. I’d rather see it now than the start of winter. We may have to suffer a wild late autumn but I am cautiously optimistic for mid winter. I suspect that teleconnective conditions, from low solar to neutral to weakly positive ENSO will reflect this though with unprecedented arctic melt long term forecasts will be more unpredictable than ever.
  2. Nice amount of back building here. With divergent winds at mid to upper levels this is expected let’s hope this continues as it tracks NNE
  3. Seems like the trigger has well and truly fired. Heading straight for the moderate risk area
  4. It’s building in Northern France as the warm plume heads north and is hitting the moister air. Trigger time
  5. Just seeing the first signs of stronger convective activity in Northern France around Le Mans area. Needs watching
  6. Just heard the team are at duke ok. Just east of Gould storm - 100% best and safest position. Well done paul so far
  7. Will be watching the streams tonight. Here's hoping everyone stays safe.
  8. We may have to hit the ground running on tour 3. Hopefully be able to get a bonus chase in on Tuesday if possible with most of the guests arrived on the Monday. Denver not too badly situated
  9. I remember 2011 and will take nothing for granted #deathridge
  10. See you out there Nick. I'm starting to jkeep a sneaky peak at the models too. Hopefully we get a reload and repeat of the upcoming pattern.
  11. Just booked days inn through booking .com. Pd just under £64 and got a twin room, so if anyone needs to share at last minute then that is fine. I arrive with Becca and Nick L on same United flight on the 27th. For the newbies there is a fb tour 3 chat group that Paul has set up on fb. If you want to be added before you arrive then pm Paul S with your fb details and I am sure that he will add you. Just can’t wait. For those more technically minded and looking into FI for the start of our tour, it looks like GEFS 500hPa anomaly charts have one trough exiting the east coast of the US whilst another moves in from the west coast. Could be worse though taken with the salt it deserves..
  12. Tour 2 looking very promising indeed. Good luck to all out on it. Bet cookie is wetting himself...
  13. Always frustrating to just miss the fun. Here's hoping it continues towards the end of the month
  14. Naughty boy, looking into the perils of GFS FI. Will look though at the end of this week and into next week....Looks like an active tour 2 with a strong Pacific jet buckling over central US
  15. One of the things that I have been discussing with last years tour group is data for phones and devices. Weather holidays do provide great Wi-fi on the tours ( and I hear it has been great so far this year) but there can always be connectivity and multi usage issues. The most important thing is that Paul and his team can have the fastest and best data updates when he needs it most, so I am ensuring that I have my own data plan in place, so as not to slow up the internet speed at crucial moments. It may be worth contacting your phone provider so that you have a back up plan at these crucial moments. I am sorting one out with EE for a relatively modest price. I have also got myself a Revolut card so that I don’t have to rely on cash and can take advantage of the better exchange rates they offer.
  16. 13Z Rap has Amarillo right in the firing line and possibly just further south - latest sounding from Plainview
  17. Where are the team currently. Somewhere like Pampa Tx?
  18. Definitely, and yet time flies when you are out there.....
  19. Seeing the first tour off on a bonus chase day hasn’t half given me pangs to be back out there. Can’t wait til I touch down on the 27th. What days are other guests arriving?
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