chionomaniac

Half hour change shows signs of this light precip

In fact more widespread than that. Worth watching

Keeping an eye on another possible unforecast convergence zone developing between Tenterden and burgess Hill on last few radar runs.

Yep marie, and Brighton still has a fair chance tomorrow of an unexpected snowfall from the dropping convergence zone. Another day of radar watching

Yep, agree with that at cz drops south

Nope. I don’t rule that out, more that that scenario is too far away for close short term analysis.

II’ve had a look at UKV tonight. Suggestion is that as the wind swings more NE a convergence zone pivots from the Thames estuary southwards, so the band will move southward at the westerly point as the night progresses. By midday tomorrow the pivot should be from the estuary to Brighton before moving even further east during the afternoon. So those areas in the pivot zone should get some snow depending upon the strength of the convergence and wind strength. Perhaps 2-5 cm in some areas. The last chance saloon for these areas methinks

For me the spell rates 7/10 for depth of cold and 3/10 for falling snow but only 1/10 for depth of snow. Hey ho. Still another day or so left for these to change.

Well hopefully when I get up a streamer has formed to surprise me. No doubt my snow body clock will ensure I wake up and check a few times during the night.

Interestingly, the light snow/ snizzle has picked up in intensity inland across the region south of the Thames in the last half hour. Don’t mind that trend .

I doubt it Kold. Grass is better at holding a colder layer between the snow and the ground - reversed insulation if you like. I have an area in my garden with small tufts of grass in between soil. And the snow stuck to the top of these, but not the ground surrounding them.

Yes, I was in east Grinstead this morning and noted that this had not occurred in the same manner, so elevation, being further away from the sponge effect of the water table and local geology appears also to play a part. Lol, be grateful.

The snow melt is 100% ground temps. I have just watched the phenomenon in my back garden. The air temperature just above the ground is -1.2°C. When the snow hits the pavement, or bare soil, it melts very quickly. However, where the grass and bushes are tall enough to offer a bit of protection from the ground, the snow settles, likewise outdoor window ledges and roofs. It also is sticking on manhole covers, and the outside door mat where bristles keep the snow away from the surface. I have a small paved area with steps, that I have noticed have air bricks underneath them. The snow has melted right up to the steps but stuck on the air brick borne steps - so the air bricks are providing a cold insulating barrier away from the ground to let this occur. It’s no surprise really, with weeks of heavy rain, a warmer and saturated water table, and no significant harsh frosts prior to the snow, it didn’t stand a chance in these areas.

It certainly looks at the moment that those in east anglia are not getting anything like forecast. Wait for any streamers. but I would say so far a far weaker event than expected

Now precip is drizzle. It took a bit of checking, but definitely rain drizzle rather than snizzle. Bloody cold out there too.

Its stopped now but next level is white sleety streaks in the rain.

Nope. But it is easy to pop out and look at the nearest car windscreen.. I would be arrested if otherwise lol.

Referring back to my earlier transition from snow to rain, we are at stage one. Rain with icy blobs, that can be witnessed on a car windscreen.

Lol no sleep for me until I see a snowflake settle. Hard core

No worries Marie. The low pressure curvature should have sent the colder air around the back end first and you are confirming this.

This shows how the curve of colder air undercuts those to your east. What’s you temp Marie and dp if you have it?

Blimey. Just rain here but I know the low pressure will have a curved cold undercut. Whereabouts are you Marie? Higher up?

It’s so difficult to forecast Tom. I would expect you to get at least 10cm, but more with convective streamer alignment thats where the difficulty arises.

Latest radar is a thumbs up. And this doesn’t show western precipitation

So, can intensification from streamers enhance the snow amount in a dynamics situation. Of course so higher goals expected, due to the models not being able to forecast this. Signs are already there as well