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chionomaniac

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chionomaniac last won the day on January 29 2017

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About chionomaniac

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    Strat freak

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    Burgess Hill - home, Brighton - work.

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  1. Great to see many Scots getting plastered with snow. Do enjoy it and thanks for the pics.
  2. Please stick to the models. The will it snow chat at Xm asl chat can be put in the regionals. Thanks. Anything along those lines will disappear quicker than the snow will melt at sea level...
  3. The temperature at 10hPa differs depending on the time of year. The mean temp between 90N and 65N in January at 10hPa is around -60C.
  4. Yep and we are reaching 10 hPa. Best angle of attack at 1 hPA see so far. The EP flux looks poleward. I'ts if this can get into the semi reliable (within 10 days) that things will get interesting (wave 1 still projected but wave 2 likely to follow)
  5. Could be the strongest warming forecast yet on this strat run.
  6. Thje first disturbances at 1hPa are still forecast for the 20th - that's now T+276
  7. Furthermore, if this is substantial then chances of meridional flow and trop mid latitude cold increases from early feb. Where? well we are in a good as position as any with I suspect increase blocking chances to our north. This is where teleconnective forecasts including joint strat and GWO will give a better chance of verification than those relying on instinct. Still this technique is still in its infancy.
  8. It's a bit of a technical way of saying that the trop precursors are going to weaken the strat vortex - hence the strat vortex is set to weaken towards the end of the month. Pretty much in line with what we have been saying on here since the start of the month. ( In the meantime as the vortex gets put under pressure the u wind or strength increases but that is all part of the process)
  9. Just a point to take note of how continental air mass can influence temperatures. Pretty cold here now with a SE flow off the continent: The 850 temps though are a lot higher though- towards 8 and later 10 degrees : So one can imagine that if 850 temps were even just below 0 then the surface temperature could still be conducive for snow if precipitation was forecast.
  10. Starting to shape up to a wave 2 warming pattern now as expected, though very early days.
  11. Hopefully you can see why the reinforcement has pushed the block west and no cut off low on this run. It could be better, but an improvement in the hi res compared to the last run
  12. I don't see that - Just reinforcements to push the Scandi block westwards
  13. I'm liking the WAA angle of the low to the west of the UK on this run- GFS taking small steps towards the Euros yet again
  14. Perhaps you ought to take a mid winter break from the models, Andy! (Joke)
  15. Perhaps with a zonal onslaught in the offing, but how bizarre to suggest that when the synoptics are offering a block to the NE that wouldn't need to change too much to deliver a cold spell!
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