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chionomaniac

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chionomaniac last won the day on December 13 2022

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About chionomaniac

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  1. Haha. They tend to be more private nowadays. But clues are in the first post.
  2. Thanks. I’ve always been in the background. I think we should note that @Paul gave me a platform to express my thoughts. And as much as I have not always seen eye to eye with @Tamara I certainly appreciate that she was invaluable with her thoughts in that first ever thread and continues to be on the forum.
  3. Hi all I know I don’t post often now but I’ve just realised that this winter is the 15th anniversary of the first Strat thread. How time flies! I remember clearly that first year and a few years after. I was convinced that the stratosphere played an important role in influencing tropospheric impacts and thought I would monitor this throughout the winter season. Well, I couldn’t have chosen a better season. That winter, we saw a record breaking split SSW of the Strat that led to almost immediate tropospheric impacts early Feb in the form of a severe easterly cold outbreak. Despite this being obvious to me, there were a lot of sceptics that still needed to be convinced. Yep, I didn’t get everything right back then as I was still learning like the rest of us, but now when I look back I see that we on this forum were at the forefront of leading the way - maybe not ahead of the scientists - but more often than not ahead of the meteorologists who had never been taught the relationship between the Strat and trop in a way that we take for granted now! I guess I am proud of the work we undertook on this forum and we led the way. I don’t often post or tweet nowadays- I consider that the groundbreaking work was done back then and that there is little to add. However, I am still keeping a keen eye on things and understand a little bit more about the Strat trop interactions than I ever did. And I am definitely keeping an eye on the first third of Feb for something interesting to develop- initially trop based but then affecting the strat. A few things will need to fall into place first, but keep an eye out. Thanks to all those initial Strat believers Ed
  4. That’s not necessarily true. For two reasons. One that even if we get a displacement SSW, then it is hard to get this to propagate and then disrupt our side of the hemisphere. But…two, we can benefit from a scandi high that is often a precursor to this set up. But as ever, the Strat interaction with the trop and vice versa are all important at this turning point in winter.
  5. Yes, as it shows a great tilt/stress of the vortex from top to bottom by day 16, whereas today it is a perfect spinning top. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98132-model-output-discussion-christmas-week-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4778594
  6. Also like to point out that EPS at day15 were trending the same way yesterday.
  7. Yes, as it shows a great tilt/stress of the vortex from top to bottom by day 16, whereas today it is a perfect spinning top.
  8. Today. Mr Barotrope. End of run. Mr Barocline. this is the trend that needs watching…. thanks to Zack Lawrence for producing these great images
  9. I suggest that we comment on the models rather than whether January is written off or not. Yep, we may have to fight a strong Strat pv propagating to the trop for a bit, but signs are growing that that could change. And an increase in west pacific convection could occur too. So , with an interesting spell of repeat cyclogenesis over the coming days, let’s see some posts on that. And follow the 10 day rule - unlikely to see much out to day 10 - but even with unfavourable background signals who really knows what will occur after that.
  10. Out of interest Crewe, have you considered the possibility of a positive NAM upwell as well as an upper positive NAM in situ. So that the positive upwell meets the increasing upper Strat VI that was not downwelling prior to the upwell. I will look into this in more detail in the coming days, but I think it is an interesting possibility.
  11. Just a point of order here. If you want an explanation of what Anthony saw, perhaps the first port of call should be to reply on that Twitter post, rather than commenting on it on here almost a week later. I think the post was quite self explanatory at that time too, but signals can and do change.
  12. So, zonal is generally used to explain a strong flat jet stream from west to east with a base of low pressure to our NW. If we consider different orientations then we can consider different outcomes. We can have flat west, slight tilt from the SW or slight tilt from the NW. All will give a zonal output but with varying amounts of mild or coolness. Simple. Once the jet stream has a more meridional and weaker flow then we lose the zonal output.
  13. Lol yes. Basically the upper Strat is forecast to spin like a top. This is likely to filter down to the trop. But how long, and with what strength? Normally, it would take a few weeks from VI. But I no longer can assume what normal is, so all bets are off, and we need to watch to see how the upper and lower Strat interact and then find why that is so. I know that this is not a lot of help, but it is where we are at.
  14. Just a moment... AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM I think that this is fair enough sPV is PV. Anything trop based is jet stream variation.
  15. 100% Matt. We have been teased over the last week or so with suggestions that the western Pacific will become active, but in reality all we see is a picture of confusion from the IO to the western PAC. The height anomalies to our NE been showing too for post Christmas - but are these aligned to the MJO uncertain- probably. If we can get a Scandi high then this would be promising both in a direct way and also indirect through Strat feedback disturbances. Winter is very much at a T junction. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4770604
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