chionomaniac

Early indications suggest a strong autumnal Strat vortex in the coming weeks. I’d rather see it now than the start of winter. We may have to suffer a wild late autumn but I am cautiously optimistic for mid winter. I suspect that teleconnective conditions, from low solar to neutral to weakly positive ENSO will reflect this though with unprecedented arctic melt long term forecasts will be more unpredictable than ever.

Nice amount of back building here. With divergent winds at mid to upper levels this is expected let’s hope this continues as it tracks NNE

Upto 100 strikes a minute in Northern France. Noteworthy

Seems like the trigger has well and truly fired. Heading straight for the moderate risk area

Nope. I’m hoping it will come to me!

It’s building in Northern France as the warm plume heads north and is hitting the moister air. Trigger time

Just seeing the first signs of stronger convective activity in Northern France around Le Mans area. Needs watching

Team at magnum currently. Great position

And nw team are on it!

Just heard the team are at duke ok. Just east of Gould storm - 100% best and safest position. Well done paul so far

Will be watching the streams tonight. Here's hoping everyone stays safe.

We may have to hit the ground running on tour 3. Hopefully be able to get a bonus chase in on Tuesday if possible with most of the guests arrived on the Monday. Denver not too badly situated

I remember 2011 and will take nothing for granted #deathridge

See you out there Nick. I'm starting to jkeep a sneaky peak at the models too. Hopefully we get a reload and repeat of the upcoming pattern.

Just booked days inn through booking .com. Pd just under £64 and got a twin room, so if anyone needs to share at last minute then that is fine. I arrive with Becca and Nick L on same United flight on the 27th. For the newbies there is a fb tour 3 chat group that Paul has set up on fb. If you want to be added before you arrive then pm Paul S with your fb details and I am sure that he will add you. Just can’t wait. For those more technically minded and looking into FI for the start of our tour, it looks like GEFS 500hPa anomaly charts have one trough exiting the east coast of the US whilst another moves in from the west coast. Could be worse though taken with the salt it deserves..