chionomaniac

Went on a little night time lightning storm chase with the main chase man and friends last night. Managed to get lots of pics of lightning And here are a few looking south from Goodwood.

A big reason for less accuracy is the lack of strat polar vortex in the summer. This is replaced by weak negative u winds in mid strat which turn positive the lower that one descends. Strong positive strat u winds in winter give a very reliable indicator of trop conditions at medium range. Probably the most reliable winter teleconnection. Anyway, is Svalbard on a red or Amber list, because looking at the ECM 850’s at day 10 this could be a lovely spot for a warm holiday!

Me neither, but have come to expect it over time. Still a few more opportunities over time, and an excellent shelf cloud observed over Dungeness

Nice back building occurring behind main band. And a little further west too.......

Lol. There are far better roads around there to use!

Lol. The surface based storms all died. The storms from France earlier are giving me the usual miserable rain from the forward spreading anvil. New elevated storms are forming on the eastern side of the french dross and these have initiated because of the mid level destabilisation moving north, not because of the French storms. In fact, it is quite obvious that the fallout from the surface french storms have actually interfered with anything elevated forming further west.

First signs of cells actually developing in the Channel now so upper destabilising starting to occur

The initiation of the elevated storms is quite different from the initiation of the surface based ones over the channel. Otherwise every surface based storm leaving northern France would reach us still active as an elevated storm. And down here we all know that doesn’t happen.

I think it is a case of ignoring the surface based storms over northern France atm. Our storms will come from the higher instability aloft later on

Just seen a dp of 18°C over at headcorn aerodrome on xc. That’s pretty juicy for the UK. Especially as I looked at the RH at various levels for this evening and there will be a lot of moisture up there

What a fascinating read, Brick. Thank you for going to the effort of writing about this. I will keep an eye on this area for activity on my earthquake apps.

Lol. Winter ends in a week. Wouldn’t rule out spring cold shots though

Looks like there are no ice sculptured solutions in the offing in the foreseeable looking at the models. What a difference from earlier in the winter when there were plenty, despite some saying it was a cold biased narrow minded view. Lol. It wasn’t- just a realistic assessment of what was on offer. Just as now is. Back to the norm.

Half hour change shows signs of this light precip

In fact more widespread than that. Worth watching