chionomaniac

Excellent news. Will be good to see you again.

I think that it is time for a tour 3 thread. I'm looking forward to it - can't wait to meet everyone, new and old faces alike. Luckily, I have booked the right time off work this time, and will try not to lose my passport! Not been to Denver either so looking forward to that too! Anyone else on tour 3 out there looking forward to another amazing 10 days in the alley!

But that doesn’t stop the met office expanding it eastwards

Yes but kept in same area. That was my point

I don’t know who is in charge of the met office warnings but they are very slow to react. It is all very well using the HR models but sometimes you need to look at the radar and react sooner. This system is obviously taking longer than expected to withdraw south, so therefore snowfall totals are likely to be higher, a couple of hours ago the inflow moisture was building and therefore south London was likely to have greater precipitation as the occlusion moves south so the intensity to the west would reduce and the intensity in the London regio would increase as shown this is likely to withdraw southwards so that is where any yellow warning for snow can now be predicted. Yet the current yellow warning iis now too far west because it appears that the met office reacted to the heavy snowfall that hfad and was already occurring, rather than where it is likely in the next 10 hours. The black line precipitation is marginal for snowfall but marginality decreases on the north and western flanks especially with nocturnal cooling and lower 850’s and dew points. so still a bit of snow to come for those along the blue arrows...

Steve the system is moving SE whilst it appears that the trailing end is moving SSW

Yep, seems like the snow may take as long to leave as it did to arrive. - that's 12 hours worth from 6pm

You never know as the back edge cold digs back in.... LOL GFS crazy snow charts suggesting this!

It’s one of those occasions when you see such variance in the models that it is just pot luck

My take is watch the radar lol

Nothing really there an hour ago

This area moving north

Check the radar lol

You can’t beat a good bit of back building and probably going to be the heaviest snow so far

Likey