Stuart

there go our weather warning for my area for the highland it gone and removed for Monday

I bet in the next the few days the yellow warning be all gone for the highlands but cross my fingers it dont get removed

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 31 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Aug 2020 ISSUED 09:38 UTC Fri 31 Jul 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 09:38 UTC SLGT introduced to northern / eastern Ireland into SW Scotland (see text discussion below for more information) Upper ridge over eastern Britain will amplify further as it drifts eastwards across the North Sea and substantial warm advection occurs. Meanwhile, a relaxing upper longwave trough will approach from the Atlantic, the net result drawing a hot, dry airmass northwards across western Europe in the broad southerly flow aloft. Two tongues of high Theta-W will be advected northwards through Friday - one across Ireland immediately ahead of the cold front, and a second more widely across England into eastern Scotland. These two plumes will ultimately merge into one by the early hours of Saturday as they clear to the North Sea. Consequently, any minor impulses aloft could bring the risk of isolated elevated thunderstorms almost anywhere across the British Isles, hence a fairly large LOW threat level issued, but the risk in any one location is considered quite low. Areas with more interest are outlined below. Forecast profiles suggest an uptick in embedded elevated convection is possible across central / eastern Ireland on Friday morning on the leading edge of the frontal rain associated with the cold front. This could bring the risk of some sporadic lightning, which would potentially migrate NNE-wards across Northern Ireland towards W / SW Scotland. If confidence improves, a SLGT may be introduced. The frontal rain is expected to weaken over Ireland towards midday and into the afternoon as the PVA lobe aloft overruns and moves into western Britain, ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, a substantial EML will spread gradually northwards from the English Channel across much of England and east Wales to reach the Scottish borders by early evening. This will serve as a cap, preventing any surface-based convection from occurring - forecast profiles suggest surface temperatures of 38C or higher would be required, and given the lack of any substantial trigger and very dry profiles, this seems rather unlikely. However, a shortwave will drift northeastwards from the English Channel 12z to East Anglia by 18z, and this will aid in cooling and some moistening of the 550-650mb layer. Consequently, an increase in elevated convective cloud (AcCas at 10-12,000ft!) is likely to spread into south and southeast England during the afternoon, perhaps as far west as east Devon / SE Wales / NW England. The subtle forcing aloft may just be sufficient for this convection to grow deep enough almost anywhere in England / SE Wales to produce a few sporadic lightning strikes - but is probably most likely towards S / SE England into the S + E Midlands / East Anglia, especially towards mid/late afternoon onwards where the subtle shortwave is slightly more pronounced. Naturally there is some considerable uncertainty as to how widespread such activity may be, and the timing of initiation (if any). Worth noting that 00z runs of most models have markedly reduced the signal for thunderstorms, with the main area where agreement is best being Yorkshire. Very dry and hot air below the cloud base will likely cause most precipitation to evaporate before reaching the ground, at least initially. The shortwave is expected to become more pronounced with each passing hour through the evening hours as it continues to migrate NE-wards across east and southeast England, and consequently there could be an increasing risk of elevated showers and thunderstorms developing during this time over these areas. As such, a SLGT has been introduced, but this may be expanded southwestwards to include other parts of the south Midlands / SE England depending on how quickly destabilisation may occur. While precipitation at the ground may be somewhat limited, lightning activity could become quite frequent in the most intense cells. Inverted-V profiles suggest some gusty winds and heat bursts will be possible. Any elevated showers/thunderstorms will generally clear to the North Sea by 00z (while probably continuing to expand in coverage as they move offshore). At the same time, the PVA lobe associated with the approaching Atlantic upper trough will begin to engage with the northern portions of the instability plume, by the evening hours over parts of central / southern / eastern Scotland, and this may also result in an increase in elevated shower/thunderstorm development, primarily over the northern North Sea but perhaps also into parts of NE Scotland and the Northern Isles later in the night. The remnants of the first Theta-W tongue immediately ahead of the cold front could still produce the odd isolated lightning strike elsewhere in England and Wales as this continues to track eastwards through Friday night. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-07-31&fbclid=IwAR3hXbdkVK1_03-HkRMn6iP7cihNM8Zssz_oCbVj9sRn4fF021_FPaozBp4

There probably updates tomorrow there be waiting for a few days

sun is out now after the fog clear now hope 3rd time lucky might see a storm in Nairn but not holding any hopes

hope the inverness storms have not takeing the thunderstorm energy from us all it be no go for thunderstorms here

Still waiting for my 1st storm in Nairn

look like that storm move right in to Invrness all well maybe next time

I had a few big rain drop on my head when I was out but at the moment not much happing

takeing not that long ago hope it look good later on here

hope there clouds can do someing

still waiting for my 1st of of the year up here but look like yet agan at the moment it all going to wase

most of the storms was in the west on Thursday but one good thing the sun is out so that will give a lot of day time heating to help the storms and LI -3 here later in the day that off the GFs model so i cross my fingers

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 10 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 11 Jun 2020 ISSUED 06:52 UTC Wed 10 Jun 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan A disrupting upper trough will result in a deepening upper low sliding southwards across the British Isles on Wednesday, primarily centred over Ireland / Irish Sea and reaching the northern Bay of Biscay by 06z Thursday. Its timing potentially coinciding with diurnal heating results in a very messy forecast evolution, with a mixture of dynamic and convective rainfall in various places. Two main frontal boundaries are identified during Wednesday daytime - one lingering over eastern England into Scotland, and another straddling Irish Sea coasts. As the upper low deepens, forcing aloft will increase - especially by the evening hours. The biggest concern over convection potential in most areas is extensive cloud and resultant limited surface heating. Large disparities between model guidance results in lower than normal confidence for the local detail during this forecast period. ... SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA / E MIDLANDS ... The leading front will potentially linger over similar areas for much of the day, and will be characterised by periodic outbreaks of rainfall falling from primarily mid/high-level cloud with embedded elevated convection. Fairly extensive rain will ultimately result in a cool boundary layer and little instability. However, if the rain becomes more patchy, and if any breaks in the cloud can allow some degree of surface heating, then there may be scope for surface-based convection to develop. Forecast profiles suggest cloud tops to around 15,000ft (-15C ELTs) may be possible if sufficient surface heating can occur in the vicinity of low-level convergence. While a few isolated lightning strikes would be possible from heavy showers that may develop, the saturated profiles and weak shear suggests individual cells will struggle to maintain intensity and be slow-moving, hence the greatest threat is localised surface water issues. Late on Wednesday night, elevated convection is likely to result in scattered showers arriving from the North Sea into East Anglia and perhaps SE England. Some uncertainty over how much lightning activity (if any) this may produce, but the risk does increase here during the early hours of Thursday, ... SW ENGLAND / WALES / W MIDLANDS / NW ENGLAND / SW SCOTLAND ... Rather extensive cloud and patchy outbreaks of rain seem likely during Wednesday daytime, but some cloud breaks may develop and allow surface heating to occur - potentially yielding up to 500 J/kg CAPE in places. Scattered showers may develop with time, particularly over Wales, Cumbria and SW Scotland where orographic forcing will aid in forced ascent given an otherwise fairly slack surface pattern. Forecast profiles suggest that a warm nose at 550-600mb, which may initially limit the depth of convection to around 14,000ft, will be gradually eroded as the mid-levels continue to cool and moisten as the upper low approaches and deepens. Consequently, deeper convection could evolve towards the second half of the afternoon. Weak shear and saturated profiles suggests lightning may be fairly localised. Nonetheless, a couple of low-end SLGTs (30%) have been issued. Towards the evening hours, the increased forcing aloft is likely to engage with the frontal boundary over the Irish Sea, resulting in more widespread outbreaks of heavy rain developing over Wales and SW England. This is likely to be a mixture of dynamic and convective rainfall, and may ultimately lead to an increase in lightning activity in the vicinity of south Wales and SW England during the evening hours - especially where convergence is maximised close to the axis of a developing surface low. However, weak shear, saturated profiles and limited CAPE casts much uncertainty over how much lightning activity may actually occur. ... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ... With frontal rain having largely cleared to the east by late morning, here a much more clear-cut forecast evolution is expected. Increasing insolation as cloud continues to break beneath cold mid-levels as the upper low slides slowly southwards atop, will result in numerous showers developing in an environment with 300-500 J/kg CAPE but weak shear. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, before showers gradually weaken and clear southwards during the second half of the evening. A low-end SLGT (30%) has been issued. Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

sleet falling here

sleeting here

just had a Graupel shower here in Nairn 10 mins ago

yes here as well just hope for some thunderstorms tomorrow Afternoon/evening

Might have better luck tomorrow here

only having showers here right now so it might be a let down for storms here today but you never know

there was some thunder here this afternoon and lost power 30 mins ago only for a few secs

seem like all the storms missing here right now just head thunder

Had some heavy showers but no thunder or lighting yet

much be to far away from me to hear

not head any thunder in Nairn yet