Stuart

not hit 26c here yet only 22.3c

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jul 2014 to Saturday 9 Aug 2014: There are currently no strong signals concerning the most likely evolution during this period. As such the favoured scenario weather-wise for the latter part of July and first part of August is for conditions to be close to what is climatologically usual for the time of year. This suggests that northern and western parts will be most likely to be affected by spells of unsettled weather whilst southern, eastern and central regions have the best chance of more prolonged settled periods. Meanwhile, where the weather is fine daytime temperatures are likely to be above average leaving conditions feeling warm. Updated: 1237 on Fri 11 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jul 2014 to Friday 25 Jul 2014: It will be rather cloudy with some rain at times across northern and western parts of the UK on Wednesday and Thursday. Elsewhere, it will generally be fine and dry with some sunny spells, although there is a risk of heavy showers in the southeast, especially on Thursday. Temperatures will be warm or very warm in the sunshine, especially in the southeast. From Friday onwards, it will become generally unsettled with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also thicker cloud and longer spells of rain spreading eastwards at times. The best of any sunshine will remain in areas to the south and east, where it will feel humid and very warm, perhaps hot, at times. However, there will also be a chance of some heavy, thundery showers. Updated: 1106 on Fri 11 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jul 2014 to Thursday 7 Aug 2014: There are currently no strong signals concerning the most likely evolution during this period. As such the favoured scenario weather-wise for the latter part of July and first part of August is for conditions to be close to what is climatologically usual for the time of year. This suggests that northern and western parts will be most likely to be affected by spells of unsettled weather whilst southern, eastern and central regions have the best chance of more prolonged settled periods. Meanwhile, where the weather is fine daytime temperatures are likely to be above average leaving conditions feeling warm. Updated: 1237 on Wed 9 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jul 2014 to Wednesday 23 Jul 2014: Largely dry and bright on Monday, away from the southeast where outbreaks of rain continue for a time at first, and feeling fresher than on previous days. Rain arriving in the north and west later will spread eastwards overnight and into Tuesday, although the far southeast could stay warm and dry throughout. From Wednesday onwards, it will be generally unsettled with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also thicker cloud and longer spells of rain across northern and western parts, with near-normal temperatures. The best of any sunshine will remain in areas to the south and east, where it will feel humid and very warm at times, locally hot. However, there will also be a chance of some heavy, thundery showers. Updated: 1235 on Wed 9 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jul 2014 to Tuesday 5 Aug 2014: There are currently no strong signals concerning the most likely evolution during this period. As such the favoured scenario weather-wise for the latter part of July and first part of August is for conditions to be close to what is climatologically usual at this time of year. This suggests that northern and western parts will be most likely to be affected by spells of unsettled weather whilst southern, eastern and central regions have the best chance of more prolonged settled periods. Meanwhile, where the weather is fine daytime temperatures are likely to be above average leaving conditions feeling warm. Updated: 1232 on Mon 7 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jul 2014 to Monday 21 Jul 2014: Rain in the northwest on Saturday is likely to make erratic progress southeastwards through the weekend, followed by clearer but showery conditions. Daytime temperatures near normal under unsettled weather, often warm in fine conditions and very warm in some southeastern parts at first. Into the following week there will be a transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern, with the most unsettled conditions generally towards the northwest of the UK, and the best of the drier and brighter weather to the south and east. Daytime temperatures often near or just above average in the northwest, occasionally below in persistent rain. Warmer to the southeast and very warm at times over some central, eastern and southern parts of England. These conditions look likely to persist for the rest of the period. Updated: 1207 on Mon 7 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Monthly Outlook Summary In this month is St Swithin's Day... Last month turned out to be the warmest June since 2006 for the UK as a whole. Some individual weather stations in Scotland and Northern Ireland had their warmest June on record, most notably Stornoway whose weather data records stretch back 140 years. The warm theme continued into the first few days of July, with Friday 4th turning out to be the UK's hottest day of the year so far. Writtle in Essex and Weybourne in Norfolk both reached 28.7 degrees Celsius. Things turned cooler and more unsettled over the weekend however, with rain and showers cooling things off. This unsettled story continues through the first full week of July, but high pressure is not too far away and will try and make inroads - at least across more southern parts - at times later on this month. Monday 7 July—Sunday 13 July Sunshine and showers at first, rain later This week starts out with a fairly typical sunshine and showers set-up across the UK. Some of the showers could be heavy and slow-moving on Monday and Tuesday, with a risk of hail and thunder in the heaviest. In between the showers there will be spells of sunshine, helping temperatures reach their typical values for the time of year. By night, some prone rural spots will see temperatures drop to a little on the cool side. On Wednesday a brief ridge of high pressure builds from the west, however it will be short-lived. A developing area of low pressure over central Europe looks set to spread a band of rain across the country from the east. Variability in the various computer models reduces the certainty in the timing of the arrival of this rain, but at present it looks as though eastern areas will be turning cloudier and cooler through the latter part of Wednesday as the northerly wind increases ahead of the rain. The rain itself will arrive during Thursday and gradually spread westwards before slowly dying out through western parts of the UK on Friday. It will feel rather cool in that rain with the wind not helping either, especially in eastern coastal districts. Behind the rain as it clears westward brighter - and warmer - conditions could spread in for the weekend, but at the same time showers are expected to return too. Monday 14 July—Sunday 20 July If it does rain, full forty days it will remain Into the second half of July it looks as though there will be a transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern. During this week in particular, it looks as though pressure will tend to be higher across the south and east of the UK, and lower towards the north and west. This leads to the most unsettled conditions generally concentrating towards the northwestern corner of the UK, as any Atlantic low pressure systems pass close by. The best of the drier and brighter weather will be found further south and east. If this pattern persists, temperatures may become locally warm where the settled weather continues, especially so in the south and southeast as winds become more southerly. Of course, the 15th of July is St Swithin's Day, so will we see this weather set-up continue through the rest of summer? It is only folklore of course, but the computer models aren't showing too many signs of a major shift in distribution of the high and low pressure centres around the UK. That's not to say that if you do see rain falling on 15th July that it will continue for the next 40 days and nights, our weather can be much more fickle than that! Monday 21 July—Sunday 3 August School holidays set fair? It does seem, at least at the moment, that there is a good chance that an area of high pressure will often be positioned to the southwest of the UK during the latter part of July and into the start of August. This, known as the Azores High, may expand across the UK at times to bring spells of fine weather and warm weather, most probably across the south. Some changeable and more unsettled spells are also possible, more likely in the north. Next week Will St Swithin's prediction hold as August gets properly underway? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jul 2014 to Monday 4 Aug 2014: There is a good chance that high pressure will often be positioned to the southwest of the UK during the latter part of July and into the start of August. Whilst this high may then amplify across the UK at times to bring spells of fine weather, some changeable and more unsettled spells are also likely, perhaps most likely in the north. Meanwhile, the best conditions and the warmest weather will probably be across the south. Updated: 1235 on Sun 6 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jul 2014 to Sunday 20 Jul 2014: On Friday, there is the chance of some rain affecting eastern and then southeastern parts, with the focus then switching to more western areas through the weekend, though showers are possible just about anywhere. Windy at times, mainly in the exposed west but also near showers. Temperatures generally near or a little below average for July, and feeling cool in the rain. Into the following week there will be a transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern, with the most unsettled conditions generally towards the northwest of the UK, and the best of the drier and brighter weather to the south and east. Temperatures will generally start near or just below average, but later may become locally warm, especially in the south and southeast, as winds become more southerly. Updated: 1210 on Sun 6 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jul 2014 to Sunday 3 Aug 2014: There is a good chance that high pressure will often be positioned to the southwest of the UK during the second half of July. Whilst this high may then amplify across the UK at times to bring spells of fine weather, some changeable and more unsettled spells are also likely, perhaps most likely in the north. Meanwhile, the best conditions and the warmest weather will probably be across the south. Updated: 1255 on Sat 5 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jul 2014 to Saturday 19 Jul 2014: Generally unsettled conditions across the UK through the second part of next week, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain affecting most regions at times, with brighter weather in between. Windy at times, often in association with heavier showers. Temperatures will be around average for July, but it will feel cooler in the rain. Through the weekend there will be a gradual transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern, with the most unsettled conditions generally towards the northwest of the UK, and the best of the drier and brighter weather to the south and east. Temperatures will generally be near or just above average in the north and at times locally warm or very warm in the south and southeast. Updated: 1130 on Sat 5 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jul 2014 to Saturday 2 Aug 2014: There is a good chance that high pressure will often be positioned to the southwest of the UK during the second half of July. Whilst this high may then amplify across the UK at times to bring spells of fine weather, some changeable and more unsettled spells are also likely, perhaps most likely in the north. Meanwhile, the best conditions and the warmest weather will probably be across the south. Updated: 1245 on Fri 4 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jul 2014 to Friday 18 Jul 2014:Generally unsettled conditions across the UK through the second part of next week, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain affecting most regions at times, with brighter weather in between. Temperatures will be around average for July, but it will feel cooler in the rain. From the latter part of next week and through the weekend, there will be a gradual transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern, with the most unsettled conditions generally towards the northwest of the UK, and the best of the drier and brighter weather to the south and east. Temperatures will generally be near or just above average in the north and often at least slightly above average in the south.Updated: 1217 on Fri 4 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jul 2014 to Thursday 31 Jul 2014: There is a good chance that high pressure will continue to be positioned to the southwest, possibly amplifying across the UK at times. This will lead to a changeable spell of weather with a mixture of drier and brighter conditions, but also the risk of some rain or showers at times. The best of the warmer weather is likely to be across southern parts whilst the north will likely see more frequent cloudier spells with outbreaks of rain. Updated: 1224 on Wed 2 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jul 2014 to Wednesday 16 Jul 2014: There will be a scattering of showers on Monday, heaviest and most frequent in the east. Later Monday, and more especially into Tuesday, a band of rain across northern areas is likely to spread southeastwards across the UK, followed by sunshine and showers. Temperatures will be around average for July, but cooler in the rain and the breezy northwest. From mid-week, there will be a gradual transition towards a more climatologically typical pattern, with the most unsettled conditions generally towards the northwest of the UK, and the best of the drier and brighter weather to the south and east. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below average, with some chilly nights, but then likely to rise through the remainder of the period. Updated: 1218 on Wed 2 Jul 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jul 2014 to Tuesday 29 Jul 2014: High pressure continues to be centred to the southwest, amplifying across the UK at times. This will lead to a mixture of drier and brighter weather, but also the risk of some showers at times. The best of the warmer weather is then likely to be across southern and western parts, whilst the north and east will have the greatest risk of cooler and cloudier spells, with some rain at times, as frontal systems round the top of the high pressure. Updated: 1246 on Mon 30 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jul 2014 to Monday 14 Jul 2014: A band of cloud and locally heavy rain continuing southeastwards across the UK during Saturday, and probably clearing the far southeast early Sunday. A mixture of sunny or clear spells and showers then following, these most frequent and heaviest in the north and west. Breezy for most initially, but winds easing during the weekend. Temperatures around average for July. Thereafter, a further band of rain is likely to spread eastwards across most areas early in the following week, followed by showers and some drier and brighter interludes. Then from mid-week, conditions look likely to become more settled across many areas, though some rain possible in the far north. Temperatures initially near or slightly below average, but are likely to rise later in the week. Updated: 1225 on Mon 30 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Monthly Outlook Summary A dry start to July, but will it last? Last week brought a typically British blend of wide ranging weather conditions to our shores. The northwestern regions of the UK often saw cloudy and damp conditions, whereas much of southern, central and Eastern Britain had a good deal sunshine. That said, it wasn't all plain sailing for the south, with the onset of some hefty thundery showers towards the end if the week which brought some localised flooding, as well as some interruptions to Wimbledon and of course a mud bath at the Glastonbury Festival! On the whole, early statistics suggest that June 2014 was yet another warmer than average month (the seventh month in succession where mean temperatures have been above average). In fact, it looks like this June was the 2nd warmest June on record for Scotland, with Northern Ireland, Wales and England having their 9th warmest average on record. There were some pretty chilly nights though, with overnight temperatures down to 2 or 3 degrees last week across parts of Scotland and eastern England. So as we enter into July, what can we expect for the middle month of the meteorological summer? Well, at the time of writing, aside from a short spell of wet weather towards the end of this week, the current forecast is looking pretty promising. The week ahead looks fine and dry for a start, although things are likely to become a little wetter and cooler for a time from the northwest. Looking further ahead into the middle of July and beyond though, indications are that conditions will become settled again, with some promising weather, at least for a time. Read on to find out the details... Monday 30 June—Sunday 6 July Early July warmth on its way...for some! After a rather chilly start, temperatures should recover relatively quickly in some good spells of Monday morning sunshine that are probable across most parts of the UK. Conditions should stay pretty dry through Monday with only very isolated and light showers anticipated, allowing for a generally pleasant day. There will however be the chance of some cloudier skies and a spell of rain for a time across the far southwest of England during Monday evening. A similar day is expected on Tuesday as July gets underway with a good deal of dry and bright weather for most parts and temperatures recovering nicely after another rather chilly start. There will be an increased chance of a few heavy showers across southwestern parts of England and Wales, and across northeast England, particularly as the day progresses. Towards the middle of the week a low pressure system will start to edge into northwestern parts of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds. Further south though, many parts will again be dry and bright for much of Wednesday. Conditions will become rather warm across southeast England with the chance the temperatures could peak into the mid-twenties Celsius. Through Thursday and Friday the rain across northwestern parts of the UK will begin to sink further towards central and southwestern parts of the UK bring a generally cooler feel, although it's quite likely that southeast England will hang on to the warm and dry conditions well into the weekend. It will also be quite blustery across the far northwest at times. Heading into the weekend, damp conditions associated with the same low pressure system will likely affect most places at times with cooler air eventually affecting all parts. Monday 7 July—Sunday 13 July Midsummer weather briefly takes a break The outbreaks of rain and slightly cooler, breezier conditions that affected the UK through the previous weekend are likely to hang around during the early part of the first full week of July. Consequently temperatures will be a touch below average to start the week, particularly during the overnight periods, when conditions could be fairly chilly at times. As the week progresses though, it looks increasingly likely that pressure will start to build across the southwest of the UK, a process that will lead to a good deal of dry and bright weather for southern and central areas of the UK with a generally warmer and more summery feel again. That said, there are signs that further weather system will brush past the northwest of the UK at times, so conditions may well be slightly cooler with the risk of rain at times for northwestern parts. Sunday 13 July—Sunday 27 July A mixed bag for the second half of July perhaps? As we move into the second half of July, the computer models that we use to generate medium to long term weather forecasts are hinting that some areas of the UK, in particular the north, are likley to see spells of wet and windy weather on occasions. Further south and east, spells of drier and slightly warmer than average conditions are probable. Next week Next week it will be time for the first UK school holiday period weather forecast! http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jul 2014 to Monday 28 Jul 2014: The gradual trend to more settled conditions is likely to continue during the period as high pressure centred to the southwest, extends across the UK at times. This will lead to a mixture drier and brighter weather, but also the risk of some showers at times. The best of the warmer weather is then likely to be across southern and western parts, whilst the north and east will have the greatest risk of cooler and cloudier spells with some rain at times. Updated: 1244 on Sun 29 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jul 2014 to Sunday 13 Jul 2014: A band of cloud and rain, perhaps heavy in the north and west, will move erratically southeastwards during Friday and Saturday, with showers following. It will also be breezy for most, perhaps with gales in the northwest, leading to it feeling cool. However the far southeast could hold onto the drier weather into the first half of the weekend. Unsettled conditions will then continue across all parts into the following week, bringing further showers or more persistent outbreaks of rain interspersed with drier and brighter conditions. Whilst the wind will gradually ease, it will be feeling cool for most, with the best of any warmer weather in the south. Drier and more settled conditions are then expected to gradually spread in from the west from the middle of the week. Updated: 1219 on Sun 29 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jul 2014 to Saturday 26 Jul 2014: There will continue to be some drier, warmer spells, but it will become more unsettled at times. Temperatures will generally be around average, or a little above across southern parts. Updated: 1241 on Sat 28 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jul 2014 to Saturday 12 Jul 2014: On Thursday, the far south and east should stay dry with some warm sunshine, but cloudier further north with rain spreading slowly south and eastwards into Friday with showers following. Temperatures locally warm in the southeast, but generally around, or a little below, average, particularly in the north where it will be windy. The unsettled, windy conditions will continue through into the following week with outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter, showery periods, the wettest weather most likely towards the northwest with a risk of gales here at first too. Although temperatures will be fairly typical for July, it will feel unpleasant in the wind and rain. By the end of the period, it may become less unsettled, with some longer spells of drier, brighter weather, particularly in the south. Updated: 1139 on Sat 28 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jul 2014 to Friday 11 Jul 2014: On Wednesday many places will be dry with some sunny spells after a chilly start. However, turning cloudier from the north, with rain and strengthening winds arriving in the northwest of the UK and spreading south and eastwards during Thursday to all but southeast England. Temperatures by day around, or a little below, average. The unsettled, windy conditions will continue through into the following week with outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter, showery periods, the wettest weather most likely towards the northwest with a risk of gales too. Although temperatures will be fairly typical for July, it will feel unpleasant in the wind and rain. By the end of the period, it will probably become less unsettled, with drier, brighter weather spreading to at least the southwest of the country. Updated: 1114 on Fri 27 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jul 2014 to Thursday 24 Jul 2014: Although the weather will most probably remain changeable at the start of this period with spells of rain at times, there are signs of a change towards less unsettled conditions during the second week of July. Temperatures will generally be around average, rising slightly above in any sunny spells. Updated: 1202 on Wed 25 Jun 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html