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Stuart

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Everything posted by Stuart

  1. UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Sep 2010 to Thursday 30 Sep 2010: Early in the period rain will affect western areas at times, with drier and brighter conditions in the east. Some of the rain could be heavy. The wet weather may spread to the rest of the UK on Wednesday, although the far southeast should stay drier. Cooler, more showery weather is likely to move into the west behind the rain. Later next week there may be a drier and brighter period over the northeast of Britain, before more unsettled weather spreads to all areas from the west. There is a risk of gales and heavy rain in western areas. Later in the period the unsettled weather will probably continue, with more windy and rainy weather. Temperatures will tend to be near-normal, but perhaps above normal in the east at first. Updated: 1205 on Thu 16 Sep 2010 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
  2. Hope Paul don't mind TheWeatherOutlook says The meteorological autumn has only just begun and December 25th is still well over three months away so at this stage it's too early to gauge how the autumn is playing out. Current indications are for a good deal of high pressure dominated weather during September as has often seemed to be the case in the last couple of decades. Moderate or strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue beyond Christmas and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is expected to be in a westerly phase. Both of these factors are thought to favour milder and more unsettled weather. North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are below normal to the south of Greenland and west of the UK so this could help to reduce the strength of the jet stream which would favour colder and drier spells. Given the current overview there is little at this stage to suggest a greater than average chance of a White Christmas this year in the UK. In this scenario the best chance of seeing snow would usually be over high ground in the north. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7% Forecast issued Update 1, 05/09/2015 The computer says [issued 05/09/2015 16:32:42]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. Snow is expected in Scotland It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland. Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  3. this time next week December 25th moves into range of the 16 day computer models. That means daily forecast updates begin and continue until a call can be made on the Christmas weather. At the present time there continue to be signs of colder than average spells of weather between now and the end of the year. Therefore the fourteenth update increases the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK. But please remember: 1) There is a long time for things to change 2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:18% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 13% Update 14 02/12/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  4. maybe there like the UKMO model the best
  5. It my birthday today I am 35 

    1. Show previous comments  6 more
    2. shuggee

      shuggee

      Many happy returns Stuart :D

    3. Stuart

      Stuart

      Thank you all I had a great day some of you know me for a long time on the forum 

    4. Paul

      Paul

      Happy Birthday Stu :D

  6. UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017: At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions. Updated: 01:31 on Thu 30 Nov 2017 GMT https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14
  7. UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017: Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of heavy rain will push southwards across the UK. For much of the south, ahead of the rain it will be dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14
  8. wont be as much as that for sure but we can do well with polar maritime / northerly flow
  9. This is still a waiting game
  10. We will find out tommorw
  11. Time is flying by and we've now reached the astronomical autumn. At this stage most of the seasonal models are forecasting above average temperatures this December, however recent updates of the CFSv2 are hinting at high latitude blocking which would increase the chance of cold spells. On balance the likelihood of snow at Christmas remains low but remember: 1) There is a long time for things to change 2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow Therefore the fourth update suggests a fractionally increased chance of snow on Christmas Day 2017. We continue to think the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern continuing for much of December and possibly lasting through the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:15% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9% Update 4, 23/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  12. UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Sep 2017 to Thursday 5 Oct 2017: As we head through the end of September, there will be a west/east split in the weather. The west is likely to be cloudier with outbreaks of rain, perhaps heavy at times. In contrast, the east will be drier and brighter, but with generally light winds for all parts, there could be some chilly nights with mist and fog forming under any clearer skies. Towards the start of October, this split will continue but it is likely to turn windier and increasingly unsettled in the west, with a risk of gales or severe gales, particularly in the northwest. These unsettled conditions will erratically spread eastwards, but some central and eastern areas may perhaps stay dry throughout. Temperatures will generally be above normal, perhaps warm across central and eastern areas. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  13. UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Oct 2017 to Tuesday 17 Oct 2017: As we head into October there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, although it looks most likely to be mainly settled at first, with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the south and southeast. Through the first half of October a more marked northwest-southeast split could develop again across the UK, bringing rain and strong winds across the northwest, and drier and brighter weather across the southeast. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above normal in most of the UK, with the south and southeast perhaps rather warm by day. However, in more settled spells we will continue to see some chilly nights with early morning mist and fog as well as an increased chance of frost, most likely in the north. Updated: 03:04 on Tue 19 Sep 2017 BST https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  14. UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Sep 2017 to Tuesday 3 Oct 2017: Through to the end of September it will probably stay rather unsettled in the north and western half of the UK, with rain and stronger winds at times, perhaps even gales for the far northwest next week. Further south and east there will be more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds. It is likely to become quite warm during the day at times, especially in the south and east, but with chilly nights in the forecast. There may be some mist and fog patches around first thing and these may last well into the morning on some days. Early in October the rather unsettled weather in the northwest will probably extend into the rest of the UK https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  15. Fewer than 100 days until December 25th! Nonetheless that's still an enormously long time in weather terms. At this stage the seasonal models are generally forecasting above average temperatures this December. That suggests a low likelihood of snow at Christmas but remember: 1) There is a long time for things to change 2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow Therefore the third update makes no change to the chance of snow on Christmas Day 2017. We continue to think the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern continuing for much of December and possibly lasting through the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8% Update 3, 16/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  16. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 Sep 2017 ISSUED 06:21 UTC Tue 12 Sep 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Rapid deepening of a surface low as it drifts from Ireland and across the Irish Sea on Tuesday evening/night, to then be on the northern flank of the jet stream, combined with the dry intrusion should promote some deep convection on the wrap-around tip that crosses the Irish Sea late evening into NW England during the early hours. The location of this activity is subject to an error bar of +/- 80 miles N-S but could result in some damaging gusts of wind in excess of 80mph locally - perhaps even capable of producing a tornado. To the NW of this surface low, the approaching upper trough on Tuesday night will allow lapse rates to steepen, with numerous showers likely along western and northern coasts, some perhaps weakly-electrified. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-09-12
  17. The second update suggests a marginally increased chance of a White Christmas. The main reason for that is several seasonal model runs have pointed towards cold outbreaks in December. Nonetheless at this very early stage we expect the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern to continue into the early part of winter and possibly last until the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Therefore our second update for Christmas Day 2017 suggests a low probability of snow generally, but a higher one in the north than south. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8% Update 2, 09/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  18. The seasonal forecast headline is for the meteorological autumn to be milder than average. At this very early stage we expect the most likely scenario is for a mobile weather pattern to continue into early December and possibly last until the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Therefore our initial "forecast" for Christmas Day 2017 suggests a low probability of snow generally, but a higher one in the north than south. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7% Update 1, 01/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. The Computer says It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales. Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. Snow is expected in Scotland It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  19. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 28 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 29 Aug 2017 ISSUED 07:58 UTC Mon 28 Aug 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Both areas of interest are reserved primarily for Monday night. ... S / SE ENGLAND ... Subtle forcing approaching from the SW could be enough to destabilise the Theta-E ridge as it advects NE-wards through the night hours. There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether this destabilisation occurs and the exact areas most likely affected, but if it does then a few elevated thunderstorms would be possible during the early hours of Tuesday, potentially quite electrically-active, these then persisting beyond this forecast period into East Anglia on Tuesday morning. A low-end SLGT has been issued for now, but this may need adjusting (or removing) based on trends through the day. ... N / NW SCOTLAND ... Behind the cold front, broad upper trough approaching from the Atlantic will introduce steeper lapse rates and a deep convection regime to northwestern areas towards the end of Monday night. Some sporadic lightning and gusty winds will be possible from scattered heavy showers. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-28
  20. UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Sep 2017 to Saturday 23 Sep 2017: During this period, we are most likely to see changeable weather conditions featuring across the United Kingdom. However, there will be some dry and fine weather at times too. On balance spells of rain and strong winds are likely to dominate in the north and west, with drier and brighter weather more common in the south and east. Temperatures will probably remain close to normal for the time of year in most parts, though they may become warm or very warm and humid at times in the south which may generate some thunderstorms. Updated: 01:40 on Fri 25 Aug 2017 BST http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  21. UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Aug 2017 to Friday 8 Sep 2017: By the middle of next week, there will be a rather unsettled spell of weather across the UK, with some spells of wet and windy weather, particularly in the northwest. Some showers are likely elsewhere too, but it will be drier, brighter and a little warmer in general across the southeast. Into the start of September, there are signs of a more settled spell emerging, particularly across southern parts. However, in the north it still looks to be rather changeable with sunshine and showers, and perhaps a few longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be where we would expect for this time of year or a little cooler in the north. Further south it will feel warm in sunny periods. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  22. been a lovely day here with sunny spells but tommorw dont look to good right now but could easy change in sort space of time
  23. no flash bangs here again this morning  now I am running out of time 

  24. running out of time of thunderstorms here only have 1 storm 

    1. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      Forecast  has me down for a jaffa cakes and a fart at 6 am :nonono:

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