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Stuart

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Stuart last won the day on July 10 2010

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    Nairn
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    Weather Weather Weather and More Weather

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  1. Sorry I have not been in the room or posting much it all because of personal Stuff 

    1. shuggee

      shuggee

      Hope you are OK Stuart 🙂

  2. yes here as well just hope for some thunderstorms tomorrow Afternoon/evening
  3. only having showers here right now so it might be a let down for storms here today but you never know
  4. there was some thunder here this afternoon and lost power 30 mins ago only for a few secs
  5. seem like all the storms missing here right now just head thunder
  6. Had some heavy showers but no thunder or lighting yet
  7. yes it it 25c here in nairn i looking forward to my 1st storm of the year if it all play out right
  8. day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 30 Jun 2019 ISSUED 07:16 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 07:16 UTC Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern Ireland (outline in text forecast below) and are likely to continue northeastwards across parts of Scotland. SLGT has been expanded to cover this risk. Confidence on developments later today over northern England / E Scotland is still not high enough to upgrade to MDT, but will monitor trends through the day Upper ridge over western Europe will gradually pivot and shrink southwards on Saturday, allowing an upper trough west of Ireland to relax away to the northeast. An elevated mixed layer (EML) will be located along a north-south corridor over western Britain, slowly shifting northeastwards with time. This zone will be the focus for very steep mid-level lapse rates and 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg CAPE (from elevated parcels) - a rather impressive environment for the British Isles. A second, narrow corridor of (weaker) elevated CAPE will be advected northwards from Biscay towards the Irish Sea on Saturday morning, as a subtle impulse migrates north in the strong southerly flow aloft. This may provide the focus for a few scattered elevated showers and/or thunderstorms on Saturday morning, primarily Celtic Sea / Irish Sea and perhaps clipping eastern Ireland - however, confidence in lightning activity is low given limited NWP support and so have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now. Stronger forcing will arrive on Saturday evening, as the upper trough advances and overlaps more favourably with the existing instability axis, by this stage over eastern Scotland / northern England. An increase in elevated convection is likely, though it could be well into the evening hours before significant thunderstorm activity occurs. Nonetheless, the risk increases as the evening progresses and the instability axis shifts eastwards, which would place the far east of Scotland (more specifically offshore) and NE England / E Borders at greatest risk. Forecast profiles suggest any convection will be largely elevated, though the environment would be conducive to perhaps elevated supercells. Regardless, the magnitude of CAPE/shear and steep lapse rates suggests severe thunderstorms capable of producing very frequent lightning and hail 3-4cm in diameter will be possible. Should the plume destabilise earlier (as per some model guidance) then the risk would extend farther west to Cumbria / central southern Scotland etc, but current thinking is a slower destabilisation would favour later initialisation over North Sea coastal counties, before activity ultimately moves offshore and continues to grow upscale. Have refrained from introducing a MDT for now due to low confidence on timing of initialisation. Isolated elevated showers will be possible across parts of the Midlands / Wales / SW England, though probably limited in depth to produce much in the way of lightning. Scattered showers, some weakly-electrified, are also likely in the post-frontal environment across western Ireland (and later western Scotland) as the main upper trough axis swings through, the cool mid-levels helping to yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Limited cloud depth precludes the introduction of a SLGT for now. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-29&fbclid=IwAR0n1BfmJZE_Ixriw_13gdH_oMnrZepjtlaUpZD6INSm4PiVJREdHwxnMIo
  9. day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019 ISSUED 19:48 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of western Europe on Thursday, with an upper vortex continuing to spin over the Atlantic well to the west of Biscay. A corridor of significant CAPE will exist between these two systems (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg), stretching from northern France - Channel Islands - Cornwall - SW Ireland, as hot air between 700-900mb is advected northwestwards atop a cool boundary layer. As a result, there will be a sharp low-level temperature inversion, and also very steep mid-level lapse rates. Subtle impulses running northwestwards in the strong southeasterly flow aloft will aid the development of elevated thunderstorms at various times over the Atlantic and Celtic Sea through this forecast period. Most activity will be offshore to the west and south of Ireland, but may drift over southwestern parts of Munster - primarily during Thursday morning. The strongest cells may produce some hail (along with heavy rain). Some uncertainty exists over how quickly the steering flow will veer more southerly, but elevated thunderstorms could return to SW Ireland during the early hours of Friday (but low confidence at present, with most NWP guidance generally keeping this round of activity offshore). http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-27&fbclid=IwAR35J7-SDR1XtLnGsFTpeZajXeCWZahc13JigsrmfnooBXMiKuwQSCYijis
  10. ALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Jun 2019 ISSUED 06:13 UTC Mon 17 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 06:13 UTC SLGT extended across other parts of Scotland, and into NW Republic of Ireland Upper low will linger close to NW Scotland during Monday, placing the British Isles under a reasonably strong southwesterly flow aloft. A cold pool will swing northeast across Northern Ireland and Scotland, steepening mid-level lapse rates and coinciding with diurnal heating to yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE. Some longer spells of rain may affect the Northern Isles and northwest Scotland for a time, but elsewhere scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to form in an environment with 30-40kts DLS. This should help tilt updrafts allowing cells to become fairly long-lasting, with some line segments at times. A low-topped supercell may also be possible, along with hail up to 1.5cm diameter and perhaps an isolated tornado. Shear is greatest towards the south and east, and so the Hebrides are more likely to have rather "pulse type" convection instead. Some sporadic lightning will be possible almost anywhere across Scotland and Northern Ireland, so rather difficult to pin-point specific areas for a SLGT - but a blend of model guidance, coupled with a favourable ingredients-based overlap of convergence / instability / shear would suggest a slightly higher risk of lightning in N + E Scotland, and parts of Northern Ireland (though confidence in this aspect is somewhat limited). That said, there is the potential for a PVA lobe to drift towards western Scotland during the second half of the afternoon, which may provide sufficient forcing for increased lightning activity here also. Elsewhere, the straddling cold front draped over Wales and northern England may produce some convective activity by the afternoon courtesy of surface heating near the frontal boundary - the main risk being over Yorkshire and/or Lincolnshire. However, convective depth will be fairly limited and lightning is considered rather unlikely. Some model guidance suggests a minor frontal wave could bring a zone of thicker cloud and increase in frontal rainfall at time of peak heating, which would minimise the risk of convection here. Finally, late on Monday night advection of a high Theta-W airmass will likely occur over the Channel Islands and the English Channel. Subtle forcing aloft will encourage some elevated convection to occur towards Tuesday morning. However, the timing of this (whether it is largely after 06z Tuesday, beyond this forecast period) and the somewhat questionable magnitude of instability precludes an upgrade to SLGT over the Channel Islands for now. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-17&fbclid=IwAR3-ppEsBwsagXx3tK0gH2CrXSTtgMGRv-y0vItvOsXm39uMl5TtrSFjFo0
  11. Cant wait for the next development Paul. I am looking forward to it
  12. seen some lightning activity in Inverness today when i was there this afternoon
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