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Everything posted by Stuart

  1. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 20 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 21 May 2019 ISSUED 10:17 UTC Mon 20 May 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 10:17 UTC Low-end SLGT added to English Channel coast, where some localised flooding may be possible this afternoon / early evening Similar to the past few days, broad upper troughing covers the British Isles on Monday, with a slack surface pressure pattern. Diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass will yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers likely to develop forced by low-level convergence and orographic forcing. Weak steering flow will lead to slow movement of showers, bringing the risk of some local surface water flooding. Forecast profiles are slightly cooler aloft compared with the weekend (when a warm nose at 600-700mb limited convective depth) and so convection may be somewhat deeper on Monday, and hence capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes - this perhaps more likely over southern England and / or the East Midlands. However, confidence of lightning activity is not particularly high given weak shear and skinny CAPE, and so refraining from introducing a SLGT at this stage. A couple of funnel clouds will be possible given low cloud bases and areas of low-level convergence. Elevated instability will also exist over the North Sea, though this activity will likely weaken before approaching the Northern Isles on Monday evening. It could also get close to the coast of East Anglia for a time late morning / early afternoon Monday. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-20&fbclid=IwAR1Sn7ZbHsgtrOSibWWsnIGmIvc-XL9m0PBYx9s3tR8JN-0igySqLubeO6k
  2. Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019 ISSUED 08:42 UTC Mon 22 Apr 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Negatively-tilted upper trough will span from the Atlantic to Biscay on Wednesday, while pivoting gradually northwards. As the forward side of this trough moves steadily northwards across the British Isles, increased forcing / cooling aloft combined with surface heating will create an unstable environment, with 500-800 J/kg CAPE ahead (to the north) of the surface cold front. A few scattered thunderstorms may develop over Wales / Midlands / East Anglia, these drifting northwards into northern England during Wednesday afternoon, weakening during the evening as instability wanes. These may initially be elevated, but provided there is sufficient surface heating then there is potential for these to become rooted within the boundary layer. However, the speed of the cold front, and cloud amounts thrown ahead of the front, will both determine the areas at risk of thunderstorms - both of which could inhibit deep convection. A SLGT may be introduced nearer the event if confidence improves. The post-frontal environment will become increasingly unstable as the next shortwave, and associated cooling aloft, arrives from the south. As such, showers may affect the English Channel and into southern Britain during Wednesday evening and night, though the extent of any lightning activity is questionable given marginal instability. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-24&fbclid=IwAR2piVGU0r3DLIoqrkSca9SEY9h3j2pBlx-jX6JeF9Wzh0NsuTuBh3d1jS0
  3. Thanks Paul looking forward to it
  4. Did you all missed me 😂

    1. Paul


      Of course Stuart, hope you're well 😄 

    2. shuggee


      Good to see you Stuart 😄

  5. Missed storms but it warm and humid so might see storms at some point 2night or tomorrow
  6. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 26 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 27 Jul 2018 ISSUED 19:55 UTC Wed 25 Jul 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Large upper trough centred to the west of the British Isles will encourage northward advection of a very warm, moist airmass across Britain on its forward flank. Subtle forcing aloft may allow one or two elevated showers to occur on Thursday morning over parts of southern and eastern England, the depth of convection a little questionable as to how much lightning (if any) may occur. ... E MIDLANDS / N ENGLAND THURS LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING ... However, by the afternoon strong surface heating with dewpoints of 15-17C should yield 1,300-1,800 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence and orographic influence may allow a few scattered thunderstorms to develop over eastern England late afternoon and more especially into the evening hours. North Lincolnshire into Yorkshire is the most favoured area for a couple of isolated evening thunderstorms, drifting to the north, highlighted by the northern portion of the MDT. Forecast profiles exhibit reasonable speed and directional shear, with backed low-level winds, which combined with significant instability suggests the potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and frequent lightning - as such, a SVR has been introduced. However, dry mid-levels and a warm nose at 700mb may inhibit deep convection somewhat. ... ENGLAND / N + E SCOTLAND OVERNIGHT ... Overnight, increased forcing aloft will further destabilise the airmass across portions of England, with an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms (cloud bases probably 8,000 - 10,000ft) expected along the plume axis from Cen S England northwards to the east coast of Scotland - hence a rather large SLGT area, with a southwards extension of the MDT to highlight the corridor with best multi-model consensus (though this may need nudging eastwards if guidance trends that way). ... IRELAND / W SCOTLAND ... Over Ireland, elements of embedded mid-level instability release may occur within the frontal zone slowly tracking eastwards during Thursday daytime. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible, before the potential shifts northwards to the Hebrides overnight. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-26
  7. Look like it good bye to storms for Friday up here in the Highlands as there be moving out the sea before it get up to the Highlands



      You may be lucky Stu, not set in stone just yet.:)

  8. storms here or not met office saying no bbc weather saying yes wonder who right 

  9. are there any plan to use the new weather radars from the met office
  10. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 05 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 06 Jul 2018 ISSUED 19:50 UTC Wed 04 Jul 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan The weakening upper trough over southern Britain will gradually clear eastwards to the nearby Continent on Thursday, as upper ridging builds more widely from the Atlantic. In general, rising heights will serve to inhibit deep convection - however, diurnal heating of residual surface moisture with dewpoints approaching 16-19C during the afternoon will yield up to (and locally in excess of) 1,000 J/kg CAPE, and combined with breeze convergence should aid in deep convection with the potential for a few isolated to well-scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Have issued a low-end SLGT where there is best multi-model consensus, though some uncertainty over how much lightning there will actually be. Shear is rather weak, so pulse-type convection is expected, which will be fairly slow-moving given slack flow - leading to a risk of local surface water issues, especially given very dry ground present making roads particularly slippery following dust deposition on the road surfaces over the past few weeks. Such convergence-type setups can produce a few funnel clouds - though cloud bases will likely be quite high in this instance. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-05
  11. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Jun 2018 ISSUED 10:16 UTC Sun 03 Jun 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris ***UPDATE*** The ISOL risk has been extended to cover much of southern England and Wales for Sunday afternoon. Most Hi-res modules indicating the small risk of a few isolated thunderstorms developing, most particularly across parts of southeastern England (Essex/London/Kent) in response to strong daytime heating (highs in the mid-20s) and CAPE values in excess of 700 J/kg. It must be stressed that most places will stay dry, but around a 10% risk will persist through the afternoon. Dry mid-level conditions and a warm-nose at about 650mb will likely prohibit convection. A quieter day convection-wise across the British Isles compared to the last week... A ridge of higher pressure will build from the northwest across most of the British Isles with rising 500mb heights and drier mid-level air, meaning shower activity will be limited in most locations. Scotland... Modest surface heating combined with orographic lift / convergence could help a few sharp showers, and perhaps an odd thunderstorm to develop across the Highlands and western parts of Scotland during the afternoon. Lighting is considered a low risk and showers will be diurnally driven. Southwestern England... Weak mid-level instability drifting northeastwards across the region could help to generate a few heavy showers, although the lightning potential is considered very minimal. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-03
  12. come on guy forecasting storms are not a easy job to forecast right
  13. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Jun 2018 ISSUED 17:50 UTC Thu 31 May 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris Another day of widespread convection across the British Isles... The focus of shower and thunderstorm development will shift further to the north and west on Friday, with unstable air pushing northwards through Scotland during the day. CAPE values in excess of 700 J/kg, and some pockets up to 1000 J/kg will be possible by the afternoon. Upper air profiles across northern Wales, northwestern England and into Scotland are fairly moist with PWATs of around 30mm. Drier air in the mid-levels will become a problem across southern parts of Britain, and while heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible there, they will likely be isolated, and forced by weak surface convergence. Topography will also aid convective development on Friday. Like previous days shear will remain weak, and mean that showers/thunderstorms will remain messy and pulse variety. The steering flow will take showers and thunderstorms only slowly northwards once they develop, and in western parts of Britain they may train over the same areas, giving the risk of localised flooding. Like with previous days rain totals in 1-2 hours could exceed 50mm in places giving the potential for localised flooding. Updrafts will not last particularly long so hail size will likely remain below 1cm, although cannot be ruled out. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-06-01
  14. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 30 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 31 May 2018 ISSUED 19:17 UTC Tue 29 May 2018 ISSUED BY: Chris The remnants of Tuesday nights elevated convection will continue to drift westwards across much of southern and central Britain. However, the mid-level instability will be generally be gone and lapse rates remain weak so lightning is considered only a very slow risk. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-30
  15. may have to wait to mid next week or end of next week to see anything up here if there do happen
  16. good luck to all down south enjoy the storms for me up here looking poor for storms right now
  17. UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Jun 2018 to Sunday 24 Jun 2018: Confidence remains low through June, however there are signs that it may become more widely changeable across the UK. This will bring more frequent spells of rain or showers. However there are likely to be drier and more settled periods for most areas too, particularly from mid June onwards. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average on the whole, with the potential for some warmer spells, more probable towards the end of the period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjr8524k#?date=2018-05-27
  18. UK Outlook for Thursday 31 May 2018 to Saturday 9 Jun 2018: Towards the end of next week and into the weekend, there will be a good deal of dry, fine and sunny weather across the UK. However, some mist and low cloud may affect eastern coastal districts, but also some sunny spells. There is the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly across central and southern areas. Staying very warm for most, but perhaps cooler along east and northeastern coastal areas. For the rest of the period, there will probably be a good deal of dry weather with sunny spells, best of which is likely to be in the north. However, it will probably turn more changeable across the UK with rain or showers developing quite widely, with temperatures falling closer to the average during early June. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjr8524k#?date=2018-05-27
  19. ay 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 May 2018 ISSUED 06:49 UTC Sat 26 May 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 06:49 UTC All areas extended north to cater for quicker arrival in latest model guidance. MDT expanded westwards to include Devon and Cornwall. Note: bifurcating flow tends to leave a gap between two main clusters of thunderstorms, so it is possible not everywhere in the MDT will be affected by lightning - but hard to specify exactly which areas might remain lightning-free Plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, primarily due to poor NWP modelling of deep convection generated by mid-level instability. In these types of situations, including today, it is best to take a broad-brush approach and try to highlight trends, rather than specifics - basically, expect the unexpected! The latest model guidance is much further north and a lot quicker with developments than data had been suggesting just 12 hours ago. It is likely some areas within the SLGT could remain lightning free, and the forecast may need to be altered if confidence improves - it rarely goes to plan... There are reasonable signs for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S / SE England at the beginning of this forecast period, continuing to move NW-wards through Saturday morning. Questionable as to how much lightning there will be with this activity given weakening instability, though forecast profiles do suggest some reasonable shear to help with some organisation. Either way, whatever activity there is will likely weaken with time as it continues to migrate across the Midlands and into Wales. A secondary pulse of elevated convection may develop and move NW-wards across SW England late morning into the afternoon, which would have a better chance of producing lightning - but this is a weaker signal amongst model guidance. This then leaves a window of opportunity during the afternoon for surface-based thunderstorms to occur. However, the atmosphere will be largely capped by a warm nose at 850-900mb, and so despite increasing instability it is possible very little will actually develop. Greatest potential perhaps across Dorset, Somerset and Gloucestershire, but this very much dependent on enough surface heating to break the cap, which is uncertain due to the potential for extensive mid/upper level cloud associated with earlier elevated convection. Should an isolated thunderstorm develop, it may be severe, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised surface water flooding. The potential for thunderstorms then increases during Saturday evening and night, with numerous elevated thunderstorms likely to develop over the English Channel containing frequent lightning and perhaps some hail. The vast majority of model guidance would suggest thunderstorms will move to the NW, putting SW England and the West Country at greatest risk, broadly Isle of Wight westwards. However, ECMWF has been very consistent over several runs (now joined by 12z EURO4) to produce a much more bifurcated flow, which would then take a very active cluster of thunderstorms NE-wards over Hampshire, Sussex and towards the London area by the early hours of Sunday. Given the large spread of possible areas affected, it is difficult to pin down a MDT area with any significant confidence - though worth stressing the ECMWF (and EURO4) tends to have a good handle of elevated convection, and its consistent signal over multiple runs is somewhat reassuring. As a result, have followed these trends for the MDT - though if other models are correct, this may need shifting westwards to cover more of Devon and Cornwall. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-26
  20. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 24 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 25 May 2018 ISSUED 20:28 UTC Wed 23 May 2018 ISSUED BY: null Several episodes of thunderstorms are possible during this forecast period - in general, for England / Wales the risk of lightning is mainly across the southern half of the SLGT during Thursday daytime, the focus then shifting to the northern half of the SLGT on Thursday night / early Friday. Main focus for Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland will be Thursday afternoon and early evening. ... THURSDAY DAYTIME: ENGLAND / WALES ... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of this forecast period, associated with destabilisation of relatively high WBPT plume, over southern England / south Midlands, moving westwards into S Wales and parts of SW England. Some sporadic lightning continues to be possible with this activity, although instability reduces as storms continue to drift to the west, so probably with a weakening trend as they move into Wales / SW England. By the afternoon, there is fairly good model agreement for any thunderstorm potential to become primarily focussed along the moisture plume, in a SE-NW corridor from Cen S England to S Wales. By this point, rain will be evolving into a messy mix of dynamic and embedded convection elements, though should any thunderstorms develop along this zone then they will quite likely be elevated - however, there is scope for some to become rooted in the boundary layer if enough surface heating can occur, either along or to the north of this frontal boundary. Some high-resolution model guidance suggests the potential for a couple of surface-based thunderstorms during the second half of the afternoon near or just north of the M4, drifting west into E / SE Wales towards evening. This area therefore has the potential to be upgraded to MDT; should thunderstorms develop here lightning could be quite frequent, accompanied by hail and gusty winds. Main threats will be surface water flooding from prolonged heavy rain running over similar areas, particularly Cen S England and along the M4 corridor into the SW Midlands. Depending on developments, the SLGT may also need extending into parts of Devon and Cornwall. ... THURSDAY DAYTIME: NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ... Remnants of mid-level convection / instability (from Wales) will drift westwards into southern and eastern Ireland on Thursday morning - this airmass then destabilising further in response to surface heating, yielding 500-900 J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence will aid in the development of a few scattered surface-based showers and thunderstorms along a N-S line, starting on the eastern side of the SLGT mid-afternoon and drifting slowly to the west into the early evening, before decaying as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences. Shear is not particularly strong, and so most showers/storms will tend to be of the pulse variety, an individual cell lasting less than an hour etc. An isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is also possible in western Northern Ireland. ... THURSDAY EVENING / NIGHT: ENGLAND / WALES ... During the second half of the evening, a renewed pulse of high WBPT airmass will advect westwards towards East Anglia / SE England, and then into other portions of eastern England and the Midlands during the early hours, destabilising as a shortwave drifts from BeNeLux to eastern England around the northern periphery of the upper low over NW France. An increase in coverage of elevated showers and thunderstorms is expected with time, drifting WNW-wards across East Anglia - Midlands - southern N England - N Wales. This activity will tend to merge into a larger area of heavy rain with embedded lightning as the night progresses, and hence becoming a rather messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation. An upgrade to MDT may be required for parts of East Anglia in particular, if confidence on thunderstorm coverage improves - any thunderstorms that develop here will likely produce very frequent lightning given expected instability, with lightning frequency and coverage generally decreasing further west as profiles become saturated and instability reduces. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-24
  21. day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 09 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 10 Apr 2018 ISSUED 19:09 UTC Sun 08 Apr 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper low to the west of Ireland will slide SE-wards, eventually merging with an upper low over northern Iberia / southern France by Monday night. Diurnal heating over Ireland in particular will lead to a few scattered showers developing during the afternoon, though with unimpressive mid-level lapse rates and warming aloft this will tend to limit convective depth - so a few locally heavy showers are possible, but lightning will be isolated (if any). Instability will build over The Netherlands, Belgium and NE France on Monday afternoon. A shortwave is expected to lead to destabilisation here on Monday evening, and with the approach of the Iberian upper trough merging with the Atlantic upper low ultimately backing the flow across central and southern Britain, any thunderstorms that do develop over the nearby Continent associated with moisture plume will begin to drift west or northwestwards across the North Sea. At this stage there is some spread as to the exact track of these thunderstorms - general consensus would put the risk higher over East Anglia and perhaps NE Kent, but some model guidance offers a more southerly option, even as far south as Sussex (and a minority of models keep any deep convection offshore to the NE of East Anglia). In either case, it is questionable as to how much lightning will actually occur over land (assuming deep convection does move inland) given the gradual reduction of instability through the evening/night. The risk (albeit lowering) will continue to migrate NW-wards along eastern coasts of England through the early hours of Tuesday. For now, a low-end SLGT has been issued to cover the threat of weakening thunderstorms arriving late Monday evening / early hours of Tuesday over East Anglia / Kent, but it is certainly possible this SLGT area may need to be altered or perhaps even removed, depending on trends during Monday. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-09
  22. need some interesting weather

  23. yes happens a few time this winter not sure if something wrong radar
  24. are there any plans to use the new met office radar Paul :)

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