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Stuart last won the day on July 10 2010

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  1. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 24 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 25 May 2018 ISSUED 20:28 UTC Wed 23 May 2018 ISSUED BY: null Several episodes of thunderstorms are possible during this forecast period - in general, for England / Wales the risk of lightning is mainly across the southern half of the SLGT during Thursday daytime, the focus then shifting to the northern half of the SLGT on Thursday night / early Friday. Main focus for Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland will be Thursday afternoon and early evening. ... THURSDAY DAYTIME: ENGLAND / WALES ... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of this forecast period, associated with destabilisation of relatively high WBPT plume, over southern England / south Midlands, moving westwards into S Wales and parts of SW England. Some sporadic lightning continues to be possible with this activity, although instability reduces as storms continue to drift to the west, so probably with a weakening trend as they move into Wales / SW England. By the afternoon, there is fairly good model agreement for any thunderstorm potential to become primarily focussed along the moisture plume, in a SE-NW corridor from Cen S England to S Wales. By this point, rain will be evolving into a messy mix of dynamic and embedded convection elements, though should any thunderstorms develop along this zone then they will quite likely be elevated - however, there is scope for some to become rooted in the boundary layer if enough surface heating can occur, either along or to the north of this frontal boundary. Some high-resolution model guidance suggests the potential for a couple of surface-based thunderstorms during the second half of the afternoon near or just north of the M4, drifting west into E / SE Wales towards evening. This area therefore has the potential to be upgraded to MDT; should thunderstorms develop here lightning could be quite frequent, accompanied by hail and gusty winds. Main threats will be surface water flooding from prolonged heavy rain running over similar areas, particularly Cen S England and along the M4 corridor into the SW Midlands. Depending on developments, the SLGT may also need extending into parts of Devon and Cornwall. ... THURSDAY DAYTIME: NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ... Remnants of mid-level convection / instability (from Wales) will drift westwards into southern and eastern Ireland on Thursday morning - this airmass then destabilising further in response to surface heating, yielding 500-900 J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence will aid in the development of a few scattered surface-based showers and thunderstorms along a N-S line, starting on the eastern side of the SLGT mid-afternoon and drifting slowly to the west into the early evening, before decaying as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences. Shear is not particularly strong, and so most showers/storms will tend to be of the pulse variety, an individual cell lasting less than an hour etc. An isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is also possible in western Northern Ireland. ... THURSDAY EVENING / NIGHT: ENGLAND / WALES ... During the second half of the evening, a renewed pulse of high WBPT airmass will advect westwards towards East Anglia / SE England, and then into other portions of eastern England and the Midlands during the early hours, destabilising as a shortwave drifts from BeNeLux to eastern England around the northern periphery of the upper low over NW France. An increase in coverage of elevated showers and thunderstorms is expected with time, drifting WNW-wards across East Anglia - Midlands - southern N England - N Wales. This activity will tend to merge into a larger area of heavy rain with embedded lightning as the night progresses, and hence becoming a rather messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation. An upgrade to MDT may be required for parts of East Anglia in particular, if confidence on thunderstorm coverage improves - any thunderstorms that develop here will likely produce very frequent lightning given expected instability, with lightning frequency and coverage generally decreasing further west as profiles become saturated and instability reduces. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-24
  2. You can try emailing net weather [email protected]
  3. day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 09 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 10 Apr 2018 ISSUED 19:09 UTC Sun 08 Apr 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper low to the west of Ireland will slide SE-wards, eventually merging with an upper low over northern Iberia / southern France by Monday night. Diurnal heating over Ireland in particular will lead to a few scattered showers developing during the afternoon, though with unimpressive mid-level lapse rates and warming aloft this will tend to limit convective depth - so a few locally heavy showers are possible, but lightning will be isolated (if any). Instability will build over The Netherlands, Belgium and NE France on Monday afternoon. A shortwave is expected to lead to destabilisation here on Monday evening, and with the approach of the Iberian upper trough merging with the Atlantic upper low ultimately backing the flow across central and southern Britain, any thunderstorms that do develop over the nearby Continent associated with moisture plume will begin to drift west or northwestwards across the North Sea. At this stage there is some spread as to the exact track of these thunderstorms - general consensus would put the risk higher over East Anglia and perhaps NE Kent, but some model guidance offers a more southerly option, even as far south as Sussex (and a minority of models keep any deep convection offshore to the NE of East Anglia). In either case, it is questionable as to how much lightning will actually occur over land (assuming deep convection does move inland) given the gradual reduction of instability through the evening/night. The risk (albeit lowering) will continue to migrate NW-wards along eastern coasts of England through the early hours of Tuesday. For now, a low-end SLGT has been issued to cover the threat of weakening thunderstorms arriving late Monday evening / early hours of Tuesday over East Anglia / Kent, but it is certainly possible this SLGT area may need to be altered or perhaps even removed, depending on trends during Monday. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-09
  4. need some interesting weather

  5. yes happens a few time this winter not sure if something wrong radar
  6. are there any plans to use the new met office radar Paul :)

  7. Yet again snow showers missing Nairn had 2 light snow showers
  8. Good night all after not had much snow in nairn been as let down maybe have some tomorrow again  but not holding my luck  



      You never know, better luck tomorrow.:)

  9. had a few showers that all today I am a bit
  10. well what bad day for snow not had much just a few snow showers
  11. We are in theAmber warning here now
  12. Had some snow showers in Nairn over the last few hours
  13. not sure how well i do with the east winds as it my 1st time up here with a east winds
  14. snowing in Nairn and lot more to come
  15. Only had had a dusting here but don’t think I will see much of the snow showers in Nairn due to the east winds