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Stuart

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Stuart last won the day on July 10 2010

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  1. wont be as much as that for sure but we can do well with polar maritime / northerly flow
  2. This is still a waiting game
  3. We will find out tommorw
  4. Time is flying by and we've now reached the astronomical autumn. At this stage most of the seasonal models are forecasting above average temperatures this December, however recent updates of the CFSv2 are hinting at high latitude blocking which would increase the chance of cold spells. On balance the likelihood of snow at Christmas remains low but remember: 1) There is a long time for things to change 2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow Therefore the fourth update suggests a fractionally increased chance of snow on Christmas Day 2017. We continue to think the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern continuing for much of December and possibly lasting through the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:15% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9% Update 4, 23/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  5. UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Sep 2017 to Thursday 5 Oct 2017: As we head through the end of September, there will be a west/east split in the weather. The west is likely to be cloudier with outbreaks of rain, perhaps heavy at times. In contrast, the east will be drier and brighter, but with generally light winds for all parts, there could be some chilly nights with mist and fog forming under any clearer skies. Towards the start of October, this split will continue but it is likely to turn windier and increasingly unsettled in the west, with a risk of gales or severe gales, particularly in the northwest. These unsettled conditions will erratically spread eastwards, but some central and eastern areas may perhaps stay dry throughout. Temperatures will generally be above normal, perhaps warm across central and eastern areas. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  6. UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Oct 2017 to Tuesday 17 Oct 2017: As we head into October there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, although it looks most likely to be mainly settled at first, with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the south and southeast. Through the first half of October a more marked northwest-southeast split could develop again across the UK, bringing rain and strong winds across the northwest, and drier and brighter weather across the southeast. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above normal in most of the UK, with the south and southeast perhaps rather warm by day. However, in more settled spells we will continue to see some chilly nights with early morning mist and fog as well as an increased chance of frost, most likely in the north. Updated: 03:04 on Tue 19 Sep 2017 BST https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  7. UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Sep 2017 to Tuesday 3 Oct 2017: Through to the end of September it will probably stay rather unsettled in the north and western half of the UK, with rain and stronger winds at times, perhaps even gales for the far northwest next week. Further south and east there will be more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds. It is likely to become quite warm during the day at times, especially in the south and east, but with chilly nights in the forecast. There may be some mist and fog patches around first thing and these may last well into the morning on some days. Early in October the rather unsettled weather in the northwest will probably extend into the rest of the UK https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  8. Fewer than 100 days until December 25th! Nonetheless that's still an enormously long time in weather terms. At this stage the seasonal models are generally forecasting above average temperatures this December. That suggests a low likelihood of snow at Christmas but remember: 1) There is a long time for things to change 2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow Therefore the third update makes no change to the chance of snow on Christmas Day 2017. We continue to think the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern continuing for much of December and possibly lasting through the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8% Update 3, 16/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  9. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 Sep 2017 ISSUED 06:21 UTC Tue 12 Sep 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Rapid deepening of a surface low as it drifts from Ireland and across the Irish Sea on Tuesday evening/night, to then be on the northern flank of the jet stream, combined with the dry intrusion should promote some deep convection on the wrap-around tip that crosses the Irish Sea late evening into NW England during the early hours. The location of this activity is subject to an error bar of +/- 80 miles N-S but could result in some damaging gusts of wind in excess of 80mph locally - perhaps even capable of producing a tornado. To the NW of this surface low, the approaching upper trough on Tuesday night will allow lapse rates to steepen, with numerous showers likely along western and northern coasts, some perhaps weakly-electrified. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-09-12
  10. The second update suggests a marginally increased chance of a White Christmas. The main reason for that is several seasonal model runs have pointed towards cold outbreaks in December. Nonetheless at this very early stage we expect the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern to continue into the early part of winter and possibly last until the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Therefore our second update for Christmas Day 2017 suggests a low probability of snow generally, but a higher one in the north than south. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8% Update 2, 09/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  11. The seasonal forecast headline is for the meteorological autumn to be milder than average. At this very early stage we expect the most likely scenario is for a mobile weather pattern to continue into early December and possibly last until the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Therefore our initial "forecast" for Christmas Day 2017 suggests a low probability of snow generally, but a higher one in the north than south. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7% Update 1, 01/09/2017 Updates are usually weekly. The Computer says It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales. Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. Snow is expected in Scotland It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  12. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 28 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 29 Aug 2017 ISSUED 07:58 UTC Mon 28 Aug 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Both areas of interest are reserved primarily for Monday night. ... S / SE ENGLAND ... Subtle forcing approaching from the SW could be enough to destabilise the Theta-E ridge as it advects NE-wards through the night hours. There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether this destabilisation occurs and the exact areas most likely affected, but if it does then a few elevated thunderstorms would be possible during the early hours of Tuesday, potentially quite electrically-active, these then persisting beyond this forecast period into East Anglia on Tuesday morning. A low-end SLGT has been issued for now, but this may need adjusting (or removing) based on trends through the day. ... N / NW SCOTLAND ... Behind the cold front, broad upper trough approaching from the Atlantic will introduce steeper lapse rates and a deep convection regime to northwestern areas towards the end of Monday night. Some sporadic lightning and gusty winds will be possible from scattered heavy showers. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-28
  13. UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Sep 2017 to Saturday 23 Sep 2017: During this period, we are most likely to see changeable weather conditions featuring across the United Kingdom. However, there will be some dry and fine weather at times too. On balance spells of rain and strong winds are likely to dominate in the north and west, with drier and brighter weather more common in the south and east. Temperatures will probably remain close to normal for the time of year in most parts, though they may become warm or very warm and humid at times in the south which may generate some thunderstorms. Updated: 01:40 on Fri 25 Aug 2017 BST http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  14. UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Aug 2017 to Friday 8 Sep 2017: By the middle of next week, there will be a rather unsettled spell of weather across the UK, with some spells of wet and windy weather, particularly in the northwest. Some showers are likely elsewhere too, but it will be drier, brighter and a little warmer in general across the southeast. Into the start of September, there are signs of a more settled spell emerging, particularly across southern parts. However, in the north it still looks to be rather changeable with sunshine and showers, and perhaps a few longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be where we would expect for this time of year or a little cooler in the north. Further south it will feel warm in sunny periods. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
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