Stuart

Members
  • Content count

    9,059
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Stuart last won the day on July 10 2010

Stuart had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

496 Excellent

About Stuart

  • Birthday 02/12/82

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nairn
  • Interests
    Weather Weather Weather and More Weather

Contact Methods

  • AIM
    not got one

Recent Profile Visitors

49,505 profile views
  1. what a let down look like no storms here now as met office removed the warning 

    1. Mapantz

      Mapantz

      The warnings are still there from what I can see?

    2. shuggee

      shuggee

      Did you get anything Stuart?

    3. Stuart

      Stuart

      not at all maybe Sunday night and in to Monday might be better

  2. look like game over for me now as the met office removed the warning
  3. Storm Forecast Valid: Sat 27 May 2017 06:00 to Sun 28 May 2017 06:00 UTC Issued: Sat 27 May 2017 06:51 Forecaster: TASZAREK A level 1 was issued for N Spain, N France and Benelux mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation. A level 1 was issued for E British Isles mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and in lesser extent for isolated tornado event. SYNOPSIS Spanish plume with a steep lapse rates and rich boundary layer moisture continues to develop over W parts of Europe. A typical for this feature ridge extends from NW Africa up to N Germany. A small shortwave providing lift moves trough British Isles, N France and Benelux in the afternoon hours. Although high shear values are displaced from the best instability areas, severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain are possible. A broad thunderstorm activity within the long-wave trough is also possible on the other side of the ridge over Balkan Peninsula and parts of E Europe. However, due to small wind shear and weak instability severe weather potential over this area is strongly limited. Isolated storms with a heavy precipitation potential may develop over W and CNTRL Alps, but due to strong uncertainty regarding CI, no level threat is issued for this area. DISCUSSION ... W Europe ... The mixture of elevated mixed layer with lapse rates exceeding 7 K/km along with low-level moisture pooling (mixing ratios ~ 12-13 g/kg) and strong diurnal heating, develops a moderate to high instability (ML CAPE ~ 1500-3000 J/kg) in the belt from N Spain up to Benelux. DLS is not very high and amounts mostly 10 m/s (apart from N edge of France where 15 m/s may be available) which limits supercell potential and overall severity of convective cells. However, thanks to high thermodynamic instability large hail locally exceeding 3-4cm cannot be ruled out. Very large hail may occur if thunderstorms will develop in the better shear environment over N edge of France. Slow motion of the cells and high PW (~ 35mm) will also favour heavy rain events and a possible local flash flooding. Local severe wind gusts due to microburst phenomena are also involved. Limitation of this forecast is associated with the uncertain magnitude of the cap which may limit CI, especially over N France. The magnitude of lift seems to be also not very high, even besides WAA. Severe thunderstorms will be also possible in the warm sector over E British Isles. Although these stay under weaker thermodynamic instability area, trough centre is closer and thus provide better lift and overall kinematics. Thunderstorm developing in this area may be capable of clustering into multicells capable of producing severe wind gusts and heavy rain. Few large hail incidents exceeding 2-3cm also cannot be ruled out. A marginal tornado potential also exists over tritple-point in E-CNTRL British Isles where low-level shear and helicity will be enhanced. Majority of surface-based thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather will develop in the afternoon hours over N Spain, N France and E British Isles. In the evening hours, thunderstorm should move to Benelux and become elevated. A band of storms (squall line) moving through North Sea is also possible. ... SE Europe ... Strong diurnal heating, enhanced low-level moisture due to evapotranspiration and lack of cap will favour "internal-airmass" convection over Balkan Peninsula, E Ukraine, SW Russia and Turkey. ML CAPE is predicted to be mostly small, locally moderate (up to 1000 J/kg). Along with weak environmental wind shear severe weather potential within these storms is strongly limited. However, few local events of heavy rain and severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out, but the overall threat seems to lie below level 5% severe probability. http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2017052806_201705270651_1_stormforecast.xml
  4. 21c dew point at 15c and humidity at 70% and LI at -2 to -3 so all not looking bad here for storms later this evening
  5. sun is out day time heating starting all go bang if it fall in to place here:)

  6. I would not worry about it not all ways to do about the energy
  7. yes same here only 17 c and a bit more cloud around
  8. no chance of storms here now as it been downgrade last few days
  9. Have Paul moved again lol

    1. Paul

      Paul

      Hi Stu, yep I'm back in Pershore now - moved last Autumn :) 

    2. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      Bought a tractor from near there last year , well nearer to Tewksbury,lol

  10. much be end of may when bbc weather get taking over with meteogroup 

    1. Summer Sun

      Summer Sun

      Likely to be yes the weather presenters night shifts come to an end at the end of this month

  11. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 May 2017 ISSUED 18:01 UTC Fri 19 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris Upper trough axis will spread eastwards out of Britain during the morning, although an unstable airmass will remain across many areas into the afternoon. This in combination with an eastward progressing occluded front could help to trigger widespread scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The timing of the trough axis clearing before max heating will reduce the risk of lightning into the afternoon across central and eastern Britain, despite there being some sharper convection. Pinpointing which showers may produce a few lightning strikes will be difficult, thus such a large low end risk. An update will be issued if model trends are able to highlight more detail Saturday morning. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-20
  12. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 May 2017 ISSUED 16:16 UTC Tue 16 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris A slow-moving, waving cold front will push eastwards during Wednesday bringing some much needed rain across parts of central, southern and eastern England. Riding along the eastern edge of this area of rain will be a marginally unstable airmass. There are two options for convective showers/lightning. One being from storms that generate across northern France and become elevated as they move across the Channel and become embedded with a more complex area of rain as the front approaches. The other being if there is any bright/sunny spells ahead of the front during the day on Wednesday and this could spark surface based thunderstorms in the southeastern corner of England. The highest risk in the brown sausage will be across eastern parts of Kent, Essex and Suffolk. If lightning does develop in this scenario, it could become frequent enough to warrant a slight risk. Post cold front there will also be enough CAPE and steeping mid-level lapse rates to produce heavy showers in Ireland, these could have a sporadic lightning strike, although the risk remains low and isolated. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-17