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Stuart

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Stuart last won the day on July 10 2010

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About Stuart

  • Birthday 02/12/82

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  1. I can rember the 1st net weather forum
  2. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 28 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 29 Jul 2017 ISSUED 09:02 UTC Fri 28 Jul 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper vortex to the NW of Scotland on Friday will maintain an unstable environment with numerous scattered showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland, some perhaps weakly-electrified given favourable mid-level lapse rates - lightning most likely over N + W Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland, but the risk in any given location generally not high enough for a SLGT. Developing frontal system sliding NE across England and Wales in a strongly-sheared environment could have some elements of line convection, but with an overlap of some marginal instability then a few lightning strikes might be possible over north Wales and then northern England late afternoon into the evening - considered a fairly low risk at present http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-28
  3. yes Some parts of Scotland but better waiting tell tomorrow
  4. after the storm risk good for next Wednesday and Thursday here on the 6z run it all when down the pan hope the GFS wrong or it poor storm season
  5. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 Jul 2017 ISSUED 19:31 UTC Sun 09 Jul 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper trough continues to migrate eastwards on Monday, its axis over eastern Britain early afternoon, then shifting east to the North Sea by evening. At the surface, residual warm, moist air will exist across East Anglia and SE England, with some elements of showery precipitation likely ongoing / expanding at the beginning of this forecast period as the approaching upper trough continues to destabilise the mid-levels initially. Provided there is some insolation, scattered showers are likely to develop quite quickly during the morning, with a few thunderstorms possible too - particularly in eastern parts where elements of low-level convergence will aid forcing (such as along and east of the A12 for example). Forecast profiles are fairly moist with skinny CAPE, so lightning may be sporadic at times but large rain accumulations may occur locally giving the risk of local flashing flooding. Low cloud bases and low-level convergence could allow a few funnels / weak tornadoes to occur. Elsewhere, showers are expected but with drier layers aloft acting as a cap and limiting convective depth somewhat - and so lightning is considered less likely. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-10
  6. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 05 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 06 Jul 2017 ISSUED 20:15 UTC Wed 05 Jul 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 20:15 UTC General trend amongst latest guidance suggests more of an easterly component to storm tracks through tonight, such that developments over the English Channel may steer to the ENE, and hence a slower arrival inland across southern coastal counties. Nonetheless, a MDT has been issued where better clustering of storms may occur towards the end of the night and thence beyond this forecast period. More scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the SLGT, and even isolated cells could develop as far west as Devon UPDATE 16:12 UTC SLGT shifted eastwards, in line with thoughts from this morning. Potential for upgrade to MDT over English Channel and adjacent coasts, but awaiting full 12z runs for any potential increase confidence. ECMWF and high-res AROME (which uses ECMWF boundary conditions) both consistently offer a much later development (i.e. after this forecast period) and only affect S/SE England on Thursday, which lowers confidence somewhat. UPDATE 07:44 UTC No modifications to the map for now, just to add some commentary based on 00z guidance. ECMWF continues to keep developments farther south and therefore elevated thunderstorms only reach far south coast at the very end of the forecast period (06 UTC). Most other output continue to hint at developments being farther north (and hence earlier / quicker motion to the NE), though broad trend would be to shift the SLGT farther east from its current position, roughly Dorset eastwards - this may be required on further updates. ... N WALES / N MIDLANDS / N ENGLAND / S SCOTLAND ... Diurnal heating of a warm and relatively moist surface airmass will likely develop some marginal instability across these areas - though in reality, surface-based parcels likely capped by a warm nose around 850mb suggesting lightning rather unlikely given limited depth to any convection. Given also little signal from most NWP output (ignoring GFS with its dewpoints of 16-18C vs EURO4 with 11-13C), have refrained from issuing a LOW threat level for now - but will need monitoring. Some residual elevated instability may also produce the odd shower over the Midlands into East Anglia too. ... S ENGLAND / S MIDLANDS / HOME COUNTIES / S WALES ... Upper trough west of Iberia will continue to disrupt southwards, backing the flow and allowing advection of high WBPT airmass from Biscay to occur into southern England on Wednesday night. Falling heights aloft will result in an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms, though the exact forecast evolution is marked with some uncertainty. The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z, expanding in coverage through the remainder of Wednesday night as the focus shifts northwards and eastwards over S Britain as the new warm front lifts north - hence in a broad sense, probabilities per given location increases as you head farther north and east across the SLGT area. However, the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in keeping the main upper forcing a little farther south, and hence any thunderstorms may only graze the extreme south coast towards the end of the night. At the same time, it also allows more activation of the frontal boundary towards Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Given the ECMWFs history of generally having a good handle (compared to many other models) on medium-level instability events, this casts a little doubt on how widespread thunderstorms may be over southern England - though the degree of instability and very steep mid-level lapse rates would suggests any thunderstorms that do occur would be prolific lightning producers, perhaps capable of producing some hail and gusty winds. A MDT may be issued should confidence improve. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-05
  7. cold front moving slower then forecast so a lot of time still
  8. is it me or the  cold front moving slowly then forecast 

  9. i hate capping when you waiting for storms but still time
  10. last time i check my weather station dp only 13 now it way up to 17 so all good for thunderstorms later
  11. so much Energy up there just a waiting game and see if it go
  12. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2017 ISSUED 08:06 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 08:06 UTC Minor adjustments made based on analysis of latest guidance - potential for severe surface-based thunderstorm initiation very late afternoon into the evening hours, initially over NW Midlands / NW England, the focus then shifting E/NE across N England through the evening, perhaps lasting well into late evening before moving offshore to the North Sea. Very large, damaging hail, strong winds, very frequent lightning and perhaps a tornado will be possible with these. Potential also exists farther south through Cambridgeshire/Norfolk etc, but questions over whether cap here can be eroded. Latest guidance continues to suggest increase in coverage of elevated deep convection over SW England and W Country towards the end of Wednesday night / Thursday morning. UPDATE 06:08 UTC MDT over Cumbria shifted east (and hence merged with other existing MDT) given slightly faster eastward motion of thunderstorm cluster, now over NE England Broad upper ridging (and anticyclonic flow) will still be in place across much of the British Isles on Wednesday, but as an Atlantic upper trough approaches it will advect an EML (elevated mixed layer) above a very warm and reasonably moist surface layer (afternoon dewpoints near 19-21C, ignoring the GFS which continues to over-estimate surface dewpoints, and hence grossly exaggerates modelled CAPE). ---------------------------------------------------- Elevated thunderstorms will possibly be ongoing / developing at the beginning of this forecast period, especially over northern England and southern Scotland, with general areas of showery precipitation with embedded lightning moving erratically NE-wards across the remainder of Scotland. ---------------------------------------------------- Farther south, assuming plenty of insolation then strong heating will yield 2,000 - 3,000 Jkg-1 SBCAPE in a notably capped environment - the greatest instability developing during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Many areas will remain dry under such conditions, but it is just possible that enough forcing from a combination of sea breeze, topography, surface troughing and falling heights aloft during the evening hours may be able to overcome / erode the cap to allow explosive but probably fairly isolated thunderstorm development to occur. High-res models continue to offer little support for surface-based thunderstorms given the strength of the capping and dry layers in the mid-levels, but that said elements of medium-level instability release over northern England could become rooted in the boundary layer, and / or surface-based convection could develop. Given the lack of any useful guidance (aside from 12z ECMWF, GFS has been consistently too moist in surface layers on recent days and continues to overplay the thunderstorm risk) it becomes hard to highlight any specific areas at risk with any confidence - but overlapping of favourable ingredients would suggest one or two isolated but severe thunderstorms would be possible during the late afternoon, more especially evening, hours across N or E England. Such storms could rapidly organise into multicells or perhaps supercells, capable of producing damaging hail up to 4-5cm in diameter, strong gusts of wind and, if surface winds can remain ideally backed, perhaps also a tornado. A severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out elsewhere in England, but in general capping is likely to be too strong to be overcome. It is quite possible that very little, if any, notable surface-based convection occurs - but worth stressing should it occur, then it could be quite noteworthy and potentially disruptive. A MDT has been issued for now where this is most likely to occur - but this may need updating with any further guidance. ---------------------------------------------------- Overnight, rapid height falls as an upper trough approaches combined with a cold front will allow medium-level instability release to help generate some elevated deep convection with the potential for a few thunderstorms - the risk beginning over SW Britain initially, then running NE-wards with time through the early hours. The exact track, extent and timing is very uncertain at the moment depending on the phasing of the upper trough with residual high WBPT plumes across S Britain, and further updates / tweaks may be necessary to the forecast. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-21
  13. Wednesday dont look to bad up north for storms
  14. we still waiting and still no word as yet
  15. much be soon as bbc doing there long range forecast on bbc weather website earlier
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