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Stuart

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  1. yes it it 25c here in nairn i looking forward to my 1st storm of the year if it all play out right
  2. day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 30 Jun 2019 ISSUED 07:16 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 07:16 UTC Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern Ireland (outline in text forecast below) and are likely to continue northeastwards across parts of Scotland. SLGT has been expanded to cover this risk. Confidence on developments later today over northern England / E Scotland is still not high enough to upgrade to MDT, but will monitor trends through the day Upper ridge over western Europe will gradually pivot and shrink southwards on Saturday, allowing an upper trough west of Ireland to relax away to the northeast. An elevated mixed layer (EML) will be located along a north-south corridor over western Britain, slowly shifting northeastwards with time. This zone will be the focus for very steep mid-level lapse rates and 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg CAPE (from elevated parcels) - a rather impressive environment for the British Isles. A second, narrow corridor of (weaker) elevated CAPE will be advected northwards from Biscay towards the Irish Sea on Saturday morning, as a subtle impulse migrates north in the strong southerly flow aloft. This may provide the focus for a few scattered elevated showers and/or thunderstorms on Saturday morning, primarily Celtic Sea / Irish Sea and perhaps clipping eastern Ireland - however, confidence in lightning activity is low given limited NWP support and so have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now. Stronger forcing will arrive on Saturday evening, as the upper trough advances and overlaps more favourably with the existing instability axis, by this stage over eastern Scotland / northern England. An increase in elevated convection is likely, though it could be well into the evening hours before significant thunderstorm activity occurs. Nonetheless, the risk increases as the evening progresses and the instability axis shifts eastwards, which would place the far east of Scotland (more specifically offshore) and NE England / E Borders at greatest risk. Forecast profiles suggest any convection will be largely elevated, though the environment would be conducive to perhaps elevated supercells. Regardless, the magnitude of CAPE/shear and steep lapse rates suggests severe thunderstorms capable of producing very frequent lightning and hail 3-4cm in diameter will be possible. Should the plume destabilise earlier (as per some model guidance) then the risk would extend farther west to Cumbria / central southern Scotland etc, but current thinking is a slower destabilisation would favour later initialisation over North Sea coastal counties, before activity ultimately moves offshore and continues to grow upscale. Have refrained from introducing a MDT for now due to low confidence on timing of initialisation. Isolated elevated showers will be possible across parts of the Midlands / Wales / SW England, though probably limited in depth to produce much in the way of lightning. Scattered showers, some weakly-electrified, are also likely in the post-frontal environment across western Ireland (and later western Scotland) as the main upper trough axis swings through, the cool mid-levels helping to yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Limited cloud depth precludes the introduction of a SLGT for now. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-29&fbclid=IwAR0n1BfmJZE_Ixriw_13gdH_oMnrZepjtlaUpZD6INSm4PiVJREdHwxnMIo
  3. day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019 ISSUED 19:48 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of western Europe on Thursday, with an upper vortex continuing to spin over the Atlantic well to the west of Biscay. A corridor of significant CAPE will exist between these two systems (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg), stretching from northern France - Channel Islands - Cornwall - SW Ireland, as hot air between 700-900mb is advected northwestwards atop a cool boundary layer. As a result, there will be a sharp low-level temperature inversion, and also very steep mid-level lapse rates. Subtle impulses running northwestwards in the strong southeasterly flow aloft will aid the development of elevated thunderstorms at various times over the Atlantic and Celtic Sea through this forecast period. Most activity will be offshore to the west and south of Ireland, but may drift over southwestern parts of Munster - primarily during Thursday morning. The strongest cells may produce some hail (along with heavy rain). Some uncertainty exists over how quickly the steering flow will veer more southerly, but elevated thunderstorms could return to SW Ireland during the early hours of Friday (but low confidence at present, with most NWP guidance generally keeping this round of activity offshore). http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-27&fbclid=IwAR35J7-SDR1XtLnGsFTpeZajXeCWZahc13JigsrmfnooBXMiKuwQSCYijis
  4. ALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Jun 2019 ISSUED 06:13 UTC Mon 17 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 06:13 UTC SLGT extended across other parts of Scotland, and into NW Republic of Ireland Upper low will linger close to NW Scotland during Monday, placing the British Isles under a reasonably strong southwesterly flow aloft. A cold pool will swing northeast across Northern Ireland and Scotland, steepening mid-level lapse rates and coinciding with diurnal heating to yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE. Some longer spells of rain may affect the Northern Isles and northwest Scotland for a time, but elsewhere scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to form in an environment with 30-40kts DLS. This should help tilt updrafts allowing cells to become fairly long-lasting, with some line segments at times. A low-topped supercell may also be possible, along with hail up to 1.5cm diameter and perhaps an isolated tornado. Shear is greatest towards the south and east, and so the Hebrides are more likely to have rather "pulse type" convection instead. Some sporadic lightning will be possible almost anywhere across Scotland and Northern Ireland, so rather difficult to pin-point specific areas for a SLGT - but a blend of model guidance, coupled with a favourable ingredients-based overlap of convergence / instability / shear would suggest a slightly higher risk of lightning in N + E Scotland, and parts of Northern Ireland (though confidence in this aspect is somewhat limited). That said, there is the potential for a PVA lobe to drift towards western Scotland during the second half of the afternoon, which may provide sufficient forcing for increased lightning activity here also. Elsewhere, the straddling cold front draped over Wales and northern England may produce some convective activity by the afternoon courtesy of surface heating near the frontal boundary - the main risk being over Yorkshire and/or Lincolnshire. However, convective depth will be fairly limited and lightning is considered rather unlikely. Some model guidance suggests a minor frontal wave could bring a zone of thicker cloud and increase in frontal rainfall at time of peak heating, which would minimise the risk of convection here. Finally, late on Monday night advection of a high Theta-W airmass will likely occur over the Channel Islands and the English Channel. Subtle forcing aloft will encourage some elevated convection to occur towards Tuesday morning. However, the timing of this (whether it is largely after 06z Tuesday, beyond this forecast period) and the somewhat questionable magnitude of instability precludes an upgrade to SLGT over the Channel Islands for now. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-17&fbclid=IwAR3-ppEsBwsagXx3tK0gH2CrXSTtgMGRv-y0vItvOsXm39uMl5TtrSFjFo0
  5. Cant wait for the next development Paul. I am looking forward to it
  6. seen some lightning activity in Inverness today when i was there this afternoon
  7. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 20 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 21 May 2019 ISSUED 10:17 UTC Mon 20 May 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 10:17 UTC Low-end SLGT added to English Channel coast, where some localised flooding may be possible this afternoon / early evening Similar to the past few days, broad upper troughing covers the British Isles on Monday, with a slack surface pressure pattern. Diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass will yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers likely to develop forced by low-level convergence and orographic forcing. Weak steering flow will lead to slow movement of showers, bringing the risk of some local surface water flooding. Forecast profiles are slightly cooler aloft compared with the weekend (when a warm nose at 600-700mb limited convective depth) and so convection may be somewhat deeper on Monday, and hence capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes - this perhaps more likely over southern England and / or the East Midlands. However, confidence of lightning activity is not particularly high given weak shear and skinny CAPE, and so refraining from introducing a SLGT at this stage. A couple of funnel clouds will be possible given low cloud bases and areas of low-level convergence. Elevated instability will also exist over the North Sea, though this activity will likely weaken before approaching the Northern Isles on Monday evening. It could also get close to the coast of East Anglia for a time late morning / early afternoon Monday. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-20&fbclid=IwAR1Sn7ZbHsgtrOSibWWsnIGmIvc-XL9m0PBYx9s3tR8JN-0igySqLubeO6k
  8. Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019 ISSUED 08:42 UTC Mon 22 Apr 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Negatively-tilted upper trough will span from the Atlantic to Biscay on Wednesday, while pivoting gradually northwards. As the forward side of this trough moves steadily northwards across the British Isles, increased forcing / cooling aloft combined with surface heating will create an unstable environment, with 500-800 J/kg CAPE ahead (to the north) of the surface cold front. A few scattered thunderstorms may develop over Wales / Midlands / East Anglia, these drifting northwards into northern England during Wednesday afternoon, weakening during the evening as instability wanes. These may initially be elevated, but provided there is sufficient surface heating then there is potential for these to become rooted within the boundary layer. However, the speed of the cold front, and cloud amounts thrown ahead of the front, will both determine the areas at risk of thunderstorms - both of which could inhibit deep convection. A SLGT may be introduced nearer the event if confidence improves. The post-frontal environment will become increasingly unstable as the next shortwave, and associated cooling aloft, arrives from the south. As such, showers may affect the English Channel and into southern Britain during Wednesday evening and night, though the extent of any lightning activity is questionable given marginal instability. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-24&fbclid=IwAR2piVGU0r3DLIoqrkSca9SEY9h3j2pBlx-jX6JeF9Wzh0NsuTuBh3d1jS0
  9. Thanks Paul looking forward to it
  10. Did you all missed me 😂

    1. Paul

      Paul

      Of course Stuart, hope you're well 😄 

    2. shuggee

      shuggee

      Good to see you Stuart 😄

  11. Missed storms but it warm and humid so might see storms at some point 2night or tomorrow
  12. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 26 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 27 Jul 2018 ISSUED 19:55 UTC Wed 25 Jul 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Large upper trough centred to the west of the British Isles will encourage northward advection of a very warm, moist airmass across Britain on its forward flank. Subtle forcing aloft may allow one or two elevated showers to occur on Thursday morning over parts of southern and eastern England, the depth of convection a little questionable as to how much lightning (if any) may occur. ... E MIDLANDS / N ENGLAND THURS LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING ... However, by the afternoon strong surface heating with dewpoints of 15-17C should yield 1,300-1,800 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence and orographic influence may allow a few scattered thunderstorms to develop over eastern England late afternoon and more especially into the evening hours. North Lincolnshire into Yorkshire is the most favoured area for a couple of isolated evening thunderstorms, drifting to the north, highlighted by the northern portion of the MDT. Forecast profiles exhibit reasonable speed and directional shear, with backed low-level winds, which combined with significant instability suggests the potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and frequent lightning - as such, a SVR has been introduced. However, dry mid-levels and a warm nose at 700mb may inhibit deep convection somewhat. ... ENGLAND / N + E SCOTLAND OVERNIGHT ... Overnight, increased forcing aloft will further destabilise the airmass across portions of England, with an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms (cloud bases probably 8,000 - 10,000ft) expected along the plume axis from Cen S England northwards to the east coast of Scotland - hence a rather large SLGT area, with a southwards extension of the MDT to highlight the corridor with best multi-model consensus (though this may need nudging eastwards if guidance trends that way). ... IRELAND / W SCOTLAND ... Over Ireland, elements of embedded mid-level instability release may occur within the frontal zone slowly tracking eastwards during Thursday daytime. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible, before the potential shifts northwards to the Hebrides overnight. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-26
  13. Look like it good bye to storms for Friday up here in the Highlands as there be moving out the sea before it get up to the Highlands

    1. DAVID SNOW

      DAVID SNOW

      You may be lucky Stu, not set in stone just yet.:)

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