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frosty ground

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Everything posted by frosty ground

  1. frosty ground
    The GFS issue isn’t the Azores high, you clearly see the low spin up way before any interaction with the Azores high. you have shown three charts and claimed they show the same thing they certainly do not, thou the GEM and GFS are at least comparable
  2. frosty ground
    In this case it is just a symptom of weaker than forecast blocking. You could have all the room in the world but if a low pressure is spun up like the GFS does then the outcome would be the same. AGW of not.
  3. frosty ground
    Toys and pram day today in the mad thread. and don’t forget to blame everything on the Iberian high or one shortwave
  4. frosty ground
    GEM picks up the same developing low. so much cold air and not enough blocking. of course that doesn’t mean it correct not yet anyway even if ECM is great or garbage
  5. frosty ground
    I know this is your pet theory of blaming everything on the Iberian high but have you not thought that this is a symptom not the cause?
  6. frosty ground
    Rising from the ashes?
  7. frosty ground
    Atlantic gets shoved away easily as John P states above no snow event. leave a bit of nothingness over the U.K. cold but probably dry, run looks like gradually warming from here on in
  8. frosty ground
    by Day 8 the height over Greenland have drained away leaving up at the mercy of wedges. the the Atlantic is sliding into southern England, not a fan of south easterly winds but those to the south should be
  9. frosty ground
    Remarkable consistency for the time frame slightly lower heights over Greenland with the high shifting slightly west
  10. frosty ground
    by day 6 the Azores low is a little close to the U.K. but appears to be causing no issue. the cold uppers are waiting to pounce southwards with what looks like a wave developing on a cold front Where the two air masses meet could create a snow fest
  11. frosty ground
    No major differences by day 5 heights a little higher over the UK which may indicate a slight delay but nothing out of the ordinary
  12. frosty ground
    Snow rain snow is basically classic 80’s cold spells, the cold front very rarely stays south of the U.K. and memorable snowy spell don’t al says have the coldest uppers
  13. frosty ground
    Depending on the track I wouldn’t worry, looks good to me.
  14. frosty ground
    Ha ha I’d like to see the 6 hour ppn charts for the ECM 168-192 looks snowy
  15. frosty ground
    The average is probably 1.2C higher based on the 6 runs that differ
  16. frosty ground
    Looks good to me
  17. frosty ground
    Just as well next weeks weather isn’t decided by tonight’s run's
  18. frosty ground
    TBH that’s where I thought the GFS was heading
  19. frosty ground
    I knew that Azores low was up to no good, crazy run for those in southern England and south wales. First run I’ve seen the low interact like this so it’s either a trendsetter or outlier.
  20. frosty ground
    yes lower height across the south has created a cut off high over Greenland. the lack of complexity over Scandinavia loos suspect to me, a large round area of low pressure
  21. frosty ground
    a lot of changes, cold slightly delayed by hours if anything, but the Azores low deciding to make something of itself causing changes all over the shop.
  22. frosty ground
    I didn’t see it that way looks to the low will divert the cold to the Atlantic very interesting viewing either way
  23. frosty ground
    slight shift east for the U.K. high at this point with more shenanigans with the Azores low, the initial northerly won’t be as good as the 06z run by my reckoning.
  24. frosty ground
    Not sure either depend on the artic high of course it helps had the ICON gone out another 24 hours the deep cold would have been dragged down by the developing low
  25. frosty ground
    the wave should deepen in the next few runs, the high being to far east at this point with a bigger bum keeps it settled over the UK looks like a timing issue with the wave, mild sector more noticeable but time for this to be closed out by ICON and other models
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