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frosty ground

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Everything posted by frosty ground

  1. frosty ground
    I mean it could be dry, and it’s worth mentioning this if the ops show this, but like you said there plenty of evidence that it might not be. a poster last week said a setup would bring 20cm of snow into the south east via streamers, but when confronted with a chart that showed nothing of the sort the same poster said this is what you would expect from this setup. Now the same poster is saying it’s going to be dry based purely on the GFS run contradiction previous stances.
  2. frosty ground
    Those charts don’t show outliers with maybe the exception of day 10 . those ensembles charts aren’t great at showing individual runs, like what met4cast showed yesterday.
  3. frosty ground
    Not sure how many more time you can basically write it’s going to be dry. i think we get it now. we've gone from storm of the century to dry as a desert, i now forecast change with new data but maybe just maybe we dial it back a bit. looking at a few operation 5 days and dismissing unexpected features about 6 times in one morning is a bit much.
  4. frosty ground
    You compared it to one of the greatest snow storms in History, it was a little silly when you think about it.
  5. frosty ground
    We don’t get to chose the weather we get.
  6. frosty ground
    Day 5 low gets moved south. I wouldn’t put to faith on a day 7 low not doing the same.
  7. frosty ground
    I reckon that mild sector will be squeezed more as we approach. this is one feature that’s been on the charts since day 10
  8. frosty ground
    looks cold
  9. frosty ground
    Did this relate to anything at all?
  10. frosty ground
    if next week fails we always have the next chase
  11. frosty ground
    GFS is changing in the mid term but it’s sticking to a collapsing GH, it won’t be the first time the GFS has called it correctly but we usually end up in a meeting if the models a half way house. ECM UKM and GFS to change places in the morning
  12. frosty ground
    GFS has lost the deeper low over the Azores
  13. frosty ground
    changes are minimal Greenland high disintegrating as per the previous run
  14. frosty ground
    no massive changes by day 5
  15. frosty ground
    Might be enough of an easterly in the to negate some of the shadow, but yeah south easterly’s suck.
  16. frosty ground
    Greenland high holding firm is the key. looks wintry in the south east
  17. frosty ground
    Yeah it’s been there in one form or another, details change so comes and goes
  18. frosty ground
    I predate the 0z run it was more dramatic, but this is a good run
  19. frosty ground
    Yep it’s been there for ages, this is not a new feature
  20. frosty ground
    the one that’s slightly more developed than the last run and a bit further south that has been showing on lots of runs since 240?
  21. frosty ground
    Check that against the uppers in places like Europe, not even remotely correct or worth paying attention to.
  22. frosty ground
    The milder sector and the short wave has been on and off all runs around this time frame for days now, I see the low delveloping and moving south and reintroducing the colder air. This mild sector will probably be squashed as we approach day dot
  23. frosty ground
    If you remove the other side of the equation it looks a solid 7 day cold spell, 14 if you add this week in to
  24. frosty ground
    8 out of 30 runs are not great for our region as per the image below if we assume those runs are wrong then the average line plummets by about a 2.4C obviously if they are right the average increases by 4.4 aka no cold or snow
  25. frosty ground
    I meant low as well. yes the low moves in, in all three models sorry I clearly misread your post
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