frosty ground

IDO but the GEM get the low to cross the U.K. which leads to this the constant comparisons to the GFS only viable if you do a full comparison

ANYWEATHER can you show me another model that backs the GFS up?

nick sussex day 6 different…. knock me down with a feather. when you say capitulation what do you actually mean? what has it capitulated too?

nick sussex like I’m looking at a different output. low crosses the U.K. slightly different for the south

swfc yes because it has a much larger affect on the outcome than just transient snow. indeed it might not even be transient if the GFS is wrong and could stick around for a while you could you know just stop moaning and ignore the discussion your not interested in? Just a thought?

mountain shadow it could be, but the evidence available suggest it won’t be

swfc Yes for several reasons. the position of the low determines where the boundary between two air masses will be. That’s very important the shape of the low determines rain or snow over that 150 mile shift. the track amid that low could determine the weekend weather should the GFS be right it will be milder and wetter. Model thread is for model discussion therefore it’s the correct location for such discussion. happy to help

the issue remains with the GFS, it can’t get the centre of the low to the east of the U.K. movement but not enough, compare that to UKM and even the icon. gFS is on its own.

when you see a boundary that tight it could only mean lots of PPN rain or snow

at 60 hours is the Atlantic low breaking into small pieces? Actual disruption?

Day 10 that looks like @Joe Bloggs snow shield for Manchester on that run.

GFS ICON as you can see the ICON with its colder uppers and surface high is slowing and even disrupting the Atlantic, wouldn’t be surprised if the Atlantic at the least cut across the U.K. giving maybe another major snow even in the process. not like the GFS at all in reality .

For those that wish to analyse what the outputs show the icon becomes very messy, not like the GFS in reality. surface high over scandi with low heights over the U.K. and some seasonal chilly if not wintry weather.

as you can see, as the core of the low moves east the cold uppers come back south. Not really like the GFS at all

IDO it’s how far east core of that core can get. I think we can forget about southerly corrections and look more now at the shape and orientation of the low, further east would keep the could uppers in the north.

CoventryWeather I generally find these charts over do the amount of settled snow for the most part.

Lukesluckybunch no one live in northern England to be fair

Joe Bloggs wind direction is important anything remotely southerly will dry Up the PPN is no time, fortunately most i see mostly easterlies with a slight northerly component

Thursday is now forecast for 24 hours of heavy snow which will change many times between now and Thursday UKMET App obviously using the latest data available.

northwestsnow struggling to see the difference to be honest

GFS removes the risk of freezing rain mostly at least if that’s snow then it’s going to be a decent fall if it’s rain it’s going to be very wet

Johnp belly up? Must have imagined that week of lying snow and 4/7 days of sub zero temps

Day 10 yep, and the usual suspects in the MAD thread are declaring it right.

Spah1 depends on how long the snow is around, if it’s only snow for an hour out of 10 then your not getting a lot of snow.

I would put the totals shown on some of these models in the bin, high ground mostly event A band of rain, sleet, and increasingly snow, will push north on Thursday bringing up to 2cm snow at lower-levels, 2-5cm on ground above 200m, and perhaps as much as 10-20cm above 400m. The snow will ease later in the day, and may turn back to rain or drizzle, especially in the south and east of the area. There is some uncertainty with respect to the rain/snow boundary, and the northern limit of the snow, and so details may change in the coming days as confidence increases in these aspects.