frosty ground
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Everything posted by frosty ground
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
IDO I think you need the jet to cut back around the high to force the cold air westwards, Siberian highs tend to lack that feature as you say -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just look at the spread in the ensembles for this week as @Weather-history points out in the NE regional. Nothing is settled yet -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS is now a colder run at the surface than the UKM with temps surprised to 1 or 2 above freezing. quite a few changes like obvious outlier of a plume on the 18z has now vanished. No wintry wonderland so simple one lines only -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
damianslaw plenty of differences for this week before hand to, something is stoping the low crossing the U.K. that’s seems to be the main driving force for the output. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lot of differences in that run but yeah worst run of the day. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch anything you wish to add to that? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Geordiesnow the issue is simple the ECM doesn’t get the centre of the low past the U.K. it’s more than a minor difference, the GFS could have called this right im sure we will find out by the morning -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
IDO good summary -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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nick sussex I think the moans thread is a more suitable place for your post Nick!
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
IDO we don’t tend to get our cold spells from Africa so that’s not really an issue. Atlantic running into a block with cold air in place…… could be fun, gone by the morning mind. and yet the GEM is vastly different to the GFS -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
IDO You compared the GEM to the GFS without mentioning the biggest difference which is the low crosses the U.K. the GEM doesn’t back up tue GFS at all it’s run shows that beautifully. also day 9 GEM -
nick sussex snow to snow for some. GEM not worth a comment?