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frosty ground

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Everything posted by frosty ground

  1. frosty ground
    im going daft i know it but an easterly looks possible
  2. frosty ground
    If I had a compliant about this run it’s the high is bottom heavy
  3. frosty ground
    That replay makes no sense, my comment to you was one of ignoring wedges nothing more
  4. frosty ground
    The heights to the south give way, they have been like this for ages on the runs and by the time you get to day 8-9 & 10 The heights split and either go north west or south east..
  5. frosty ground
    The GFS had a wobble the GEM had a wobble. Like I said the ensembles will help, no one is denying the direction of travel with the ECM Greenland high is better than a mid Atlantic high which can be better than a wedge i still think a wedge would form after 240 chart.
  6. frosty ground
    Its one operational that ends with a probable wedge keeping the U.K. cold It could easily be wrong being the best doesn’t stop that from happening, ensembles will be helpful
  7. frosty ground
    The issue happens before 168 thou, the lack of heights to the north west with increased low heights across the top of the high is what disrupts the Atlantic high retrogressing. also some heights have sunk away south in most runs, in this case due it’s more, we are still left with enough heights bring in a northerly. With a wedge left behind. i would say this run has the balance wrong but the ensembles will soon clear that up
  8. frosty ground
    That doesn’t really make any sense, what energy is being sent south east? the lack of heights over the Atlantic and Greenland causes the issue the higher heights to the south east have been on many a run these last few days. If you discount the wedge that’s going to form and keep the UK cold
  9. frosty ground
    Which one
  10. frosty ground
    For some reason I’m seeing wedges and easterlies when this high, not clean cut but exciting probably 100% wrong but even if the trend that started on last nights 18z GFS is correct I think we are in for a wild ride with multiple chances of snow fall.
  11. frosty ground
    what is left of the low has made it across what is left of the high, should deepen and move south brining I. The cold air, but the high is so weak now it might just collapse. I think something is up and hopefully the GGS isn’t onto what ever it is.
  12. frosty ground
    fading away and that little low is struggling to engage the artic air which will blow it up
  13. frosty ground
    Who invited this little bugger to the party
  14. frosty ground
    at 144 the low heights over Greenland are clearing quicker and the highs movement to the north west is more noticeable
  15. frosty ground
    A light push north west at this point other that small changes with the uppers early on nothing much has changed
  16. frosty ground
    Is it not quicker than the ECM?
  17. frosty ground
    20-25% success rate would make this an easy hobby
  18. frosty ground
    two groupings after the 2nd shot of colder uppers, green following the op and control and blue following a large pack staying colder.
  19. frosty ground
    I think the output is based on a true GH which has been dented by this morning ECM op not ensembles and the last three GFS op with ensembles. no true GH then we have to remember how the ECM over amplifies at day 10.
  20. frosty ground
    Scandi high chase anyone?
  21. frosty ground
    And it’s gone high sinking mild sector incoming at others have said let’s check this against its ensembles, but we can’t hide from the fact the GFS op and its ensembles are drops g the Greenland high.
  22. frosty ground
    Not sure the high is closer to the U.K. hence it will be drier also another low will develop and slip south red circle. its going to get cold but this run looks very messy with mild sectors appearing
  23. frosty ground
    Yep that’s now a definite trend. whilst the 06z is still coming out I think this will be the worst op run from day 10 onwards.
  24. frosty ground
    wheel secured heights now building into Greenland, still some energy over the northern edge but it looks to be draining. edge of your seat stuff
  25. frosty ground
    much lower heights over Greenland on this run, not sure where the high is going to go. i think we’ve lost a wheel on this run
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