Just Before Dawn

Just been out for a 3 mile Boris-mandated exercise and it feels colder than it is - the breeze is quite keen and it feels sub-zero but is actually around 3c. I never expected tonight/tomorrow to deliver for here and it never really looked like it would at any point close to the reliable, so I shrugged it off. Good luck to those west and/or higher than us though - another fall and this will have been a very decent winter for many away from the east coast. Hopefully that continues for you all overnight.

GFS 12z seems to have gone off on one. Sunday 7th, according to them. The terms 'blizzard' and 'whiteout' get used a lot on the board - Not sure this would result in the latter, but it seems likely to meet the meteorological definition of the former, at least for coastal parts of Lincs, E and N Yorks. I imagine it would be lively on the N Y Moors and both Wolds. I'll eat my hat if it verifies, of course.

Very short-lived period of wet snow for here about 2 hours ago but mostly gone now. Well done Scott Ingham, who called this pretty much spot on for our neck of the woods last night. It did rain pretty hard for a fair while though, so watch the flood watches and warnings rise today.

Oh, It's not going to lie for days, I don't think anything has suggested it won't be gone by tomorrow afternoon, but this part of the world hasn't had lying snow since 2017 and nothing like parts of West, North and South Yorkshire has had this week for close to a decade, so we all have differing excitement thresholds! Like I said, this is a big region and for us in the SE of it, to put it 'mildly', this winter has been garbage so far, so I'll take my victories small. I will admit that from a climate perspective, we've probably far more in common with East Anglia than we have with Yorkshire.

Depends what you mean by 'our location' - mixing out of the cold air takes progressively longer the further east you go - then it becomes a matter of how quickly the front moves. For the Lincolnshire Fens (still covered by this region, apparently) I don't think this will be an above 250m event (good job really!). West Yorkshire? Probably. We're a big region.

Some fantastic pictures on here today - great to see so many of you have got a decent amount of lying snow. All rain unfortunately in our part of the region (the story of the winter so far for us) and it's still chucking it down. I may have a drive into the Wolds later to see if they fared any better, but it's flood watches we'll have to worry about over the next few days, not snow.

Just went to put the bins out. Feels a fair bit milder tonight than the last few nights and surfaces aren't frozen. Anything falling here is falling as rain.

Raining here now. Temps at a balmy 3c so shouldn't be much of a surprise.

I'm watching that cluster of showers off the east Yorkshire coast organise themselves, as they look like they're heading in this direction.

Fairly steady stream of showers today - all rain, even in the heaviest ones. Temp is currently 5c.

It got down to a vaguely nippy -3 here last night, probably a degree colder out in the sticks as opposed to town, which has led to a nice frost on the roofs this morning. Not much excitement for us in the lowland east of the patch over the next few days - certainly the imminent easterly looks drab unless you're well away from the sea and on a hill. I'm starting to think that working above the Arctic Circle has ruined British winters for me.

Just rain here too, far too marginal this low this close to the sea.

No, nothing lying, but some falling - I've not been up on the very tops though. Fingers crossed for the new year.

Drove down from Louth to Spilsby to see the Old Man this morning and up over the top I could see some beefy looking showers way over to the east. Hope you enjoy your week off together, she's earned it and then some.

Showers scudding through at the moment - I've just come back from doing the rounds with presents and it's largely rain with sleet in the heavier bursts here in Louth, but there was a brief snow shower up in the Wolds.

You're pretty well placed there - I used to live 6 or 7 miles to your east on the southern tip of the Wolds and I did a lot better for snow than I do here.

Technically it is the right forum, though it should be called Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, rather Yorkshire and Eastern England (which other eastern county is included that isn't Yorkshire?) Lincs Observation or Sparky might have a view on this, but from my time living here, anything even remotely close to marginal will be rain or sleet if you're within 10 miles of the coast and Northerlies are rarely much good - we need at least some eastern component for any snow to do more than skirt the coast, though sometimes a straight N can generate a streamer from The Humber - good if you live in Scunny or Brigg. The Lincs Wolds are usually the sweet spot but if we get anything from the east, the Lincoln edge is also pretty good. We're not a great county for snow (at least in the last 10 years or so), but we do get some stellar storms in the summer. Where abouts have you set up?

It's worth remembering who this is aimed at - emergency and resource planners who use it mainly to justify moving stuff about and deciding whether they need to start budgeting for overtime. From my experience, it's a useful-ish planning tool, but you need to read it in conjunction with the one month outlook for it to have any real value. The one month outlook for Jan for example states modest reduction in the chance of a colder-than-average Jan, but likely colder than the last few years. Still, I think it's fair to say it's still treated as a bit of an experiment by some of my colleagues. It was issued Yesterday, by the way.

The tides aren't scheduled to be that high on the 28th (5m along much of the east coast - in 2013 locally I think the pre-storm predicted tide height was 6.5m it eventually topped out around 8.3m). The atmospheric pressure data posted would only lift that by 30-odd cm, the forecast wind speed would be 16-25mph NE, a problematic direction but not that strong, that's if it all verifies - it also needs crackerjack timing for the wall of water pushed ahead of the LP to arrive around high tide - here in 2013 it arrived around an hour before high tide, which probably saved some of the villages on the Northern Lincs coast. Something to keep an eye on if that output ends up repeating itself over the next week or so for sure, but I'm not expecting my evening of necking Baileys and watching Bond movies on the 28th to be knocked on the head by work just yet. Could there be some big waves on parts of the east coast and a few defences being over-topped? That's possible. Would that be like 2013? Pretty unlikely based on that output. The 2013 storm really was a monster, as was the one that caused the 1978 east coast storm surge.

An inch of lying snow over the Lincolnshire Wolds this morning.

Four new severe flood warnings on the Rivers Steeping and Lymn in East Lincolnshire, bringing the current UK total to 8. Flood warnings for England - GOV.UK FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

I use a Sigma 24mm f1.4 from their 'art' range - primarily for astrophotography but it's also great for storms too. I tend to use liveview to manually focus but infinity on this lens is pretty good so in a hurry I feel confident going with that. In terms of tomorrow night, I guess it depends on the cap and whether temps and humidity gets high enough to erode it and when that happens. I'll be driving over the Wolds around 9pm tomorrow night, so I'll need to remember the tripod and cable release.

Brutal frost and freezing fog here this morning that's slow to clear. Looking like we might get something in the way of snow showers overnight tonight.

Not here, they're not. I guess I forget how big a county Lincs is. Very wintery evening here, with snow settling and it's very windy with a biting chill. Only a dusting at the moment, but the radar suggests a decent covering overnight. Feels like mid-January.

What forecast are you getting that from, because the local radio and TV forecasts have both identified a snow risk from overnight tonight.